Get Bets and Betting Tips for Royals vs Orioles – 5/04/2025

Kansas City Royals

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Baltimore Orioles

On May 4, 2025, the Baltimore Orioles will host the Kansas City Royals at Oriole Park at Camden Yards in what promises to be a pivotal matchup for both teams. The Orioles are struggling this season with a record of 13-19, while the Royals sit at a respectable 18-16. In their last game on May 3, the Orioles were blanked 4-0 by the Royals, who recently enjoyed a solid victory of their own by the same scoreline.

The matchup features two right-handed pitchers: Kyle Gibson for the Orioles and Michael Lorenzen for the Royals. Gibson, who ranks as the 195th best starting pitcher in MLB according to advanced metrics, is looking to bounce back after a disastrous outing where he allowed 9 earned runs over just 4 innings. His season ERA is a troubling 22.09, but his xFIP suggests he may improve soon. He projects to pitch an average of 5.4 innings today but could struggle, particularly against a low-strikeout Royals offense.

On the other hand, Lorenzen has been more effective, with a solid 3.48 ERA and a 3-3 record this season. His recent performance included a strong 6-inning outing where he allowed just 1 earned run. While his projections indicate he may not be as lucky going forward, he has demonstrated the ability to limit runs effectively.

Despite the Orioles’ struggles, their offense ranks 23rd in MLB and possesses power potential, with the 12th most home runs. However, they face a Royals team that has underperformed offensively, ranking 29th overall. Given the circumstances, the Orioles have a high implied team total of 4.78 runs for today, making them the betting favorites at -140. With a chance to level the series, Baltimore will look to capitalize on their home advantage and turn their season around.

Kansas City Royals Insights

• Michael Lorenzen – Over/Under 3.5 Strikeouts (-160/+125)
  Michael Lorenzen’s higher usage rate of his secondary pitches this season (57.6% compared to 51.7% last year) ought to work in his favor since they are typically much more effective than fastballs.
  Explain: A pitcher who limits has fastball usage will instead heavily use change-ups, curveballs, sliders, etc. These are far more effective pitches at preventing runs and generating strikeouts.
• Maikel Garcia – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+125/-160)
  Maikel Garcia has seen a significant increase in his exit velocity this season; just compare his 93.2-mph average to last season’s 90.4-mph EV.
  Explain: Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.
• The Kansas City Royals have been the 3rd-unluckiest offense in Major League Baseball this year, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X), and are likely to positively regress in the future
  Explain: When teams underperform their projected talent level, markets may undervalue them even while they are likely to perform better in the near future.

Baltimore Orioles Insights

• Baltimore Orioles – Moneyline (-140)
  The Baltimore Orioles outfield defense projects as the worst out of every team playing today.
  Explain: Defense is an integral part of preventing (or, in this case, allowing) hits and runs.
• Cedric Mullins – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-190/+145)
  Extreme flyball hitters like Cedric Mullins are generally less successful against extreme flyball pitchers like Michael Lorenzen.
  Explain: This mostly has to do with the way the hitter’s swing plane interacts with the pitch trajectory, and it can create diminished performance across all categories and hidden value few are considering.
• Baltimore’s 90.3-mph average exit velocity this year is one of the best in MLB: #3 overall.
  Explain: Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.

Betting Trends

• Baltimore Orioles – Over/Under 4.5 Team Total (-130/+100)
  The Baltimore Orioles have hit the Team Total Under in 20 of their last 29 games (+9.80 Units / 29% ROI)
• Kansas City Royals – Over/Under 4.5 Team Total (+100/-130)
  The Kansas City Royals have hit the Team Total Under in 19 of their last 25 games (+13.30 Units / 47% ROI)
• Jonathan India – Over/Under 1.5 Hits Runs and RBIs (-135/+105)
  Jonathan India has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Under in 17 of his last 25 games (+8.35 Units / 28% ROI)