See Picks and Betting Line for Mets vs Cardinals – Friday, May 2, 2025

New York Mets

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St. Louis Cardinals

As the St. Louis Cardinals and the New York Mets prepare to face off on May 2, 2025, both teams find themselves in contrasting positions in the standings. The Cardinals sit at 14-18, struggling this season, while the Mets boast a strong 21-11 record, reflecting their excellent form. This matchup marks the first game in the series between the two clubs.

In their last outing, the Cardinals faced off against the Chicago Cubs, where they managed to secure a narrow victory, potentially providing a much-needed boost to their spirits. However, their overall performance this season has been lackluster, with their offense ranking 8th in the league, but only 17th in home runs. The Cardinals will rely on Sonny Gray, who has been solid with a 3-0 record and a 3.60 ERA. Yet, projections indicate that he may struggle today, with an average of 4.8 hits and 1.9 walks allowed.

On the other side, the Mets are riding high on the back of their elite pitcher, Clay Holmes. Currently ranked 12th among MLB starters, Holmes has a 3-1 record and an impressive 2.64 ERA. However, his xFIP suggests he might be due for some regression. Despite this, he projects to allow just 2.1 earned runs today, which could be pivotal against a Cardinals offense that, while talented, has been inconsistent.

With the Game Total set at a low 7.5 runs, and with the Cardinals’ moneyline at +100, this matchup is expected to be close. Bettors should keep an eye on both starting pitchers, as the projections lean towards the Mets having an edge in this matchup.

New York Mets Insights

• Clay Holmes – Over/Under 4.5 Strikeouts (-115/-115)
  Clay Holmes’s fastball velocity over his last 3 GS (91.6 mph) has been considerably slower than than his seasonal rate (92.9 mph).
  Explain: Velocity is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs, so a pitcher who improves his velocity will likely see improved results.
• Mark Vientos – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-185/+140)
  Mark Vientos is penciled in 6th on the lineup card in this game, which would be a downgrade from his 72% rate of hitting in the top-half of the batting order this year.
  Explain: The lower in the order a player bats, the fewer plate appearances he will get and the fewer opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits lower in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting higher.
• New York Mets – Moneyline (-120)
  The New York Mets projected offense ranks as the 2nd-best on the slate in terms of overall batting ability.
  Explain: A pitcher who faces a strong opposing offense will be more likely to underperform his usual performance, particularly in terms of hits and runs, in that game.

St. Louis Cardinals Insights

• Sonny Gray – Over/Under 17.5 Pitching Outs (-115/-115)
  Sonny Gray has recorded 17.5 outs per start this year, ranking in the 83rd percentile.
  Explain: A pitcher who averages more outs per start than his Outs prop may be a good bet to go over, and visa-versa for the under.
• Lars Nootbaar – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-170/+130)
  Lars Nootbaar is assured to hold the advantage against every reliever the whole game since none of the available options for the New York Mets share his handedness.
  Explain: Hitters perform worse against pitchers of the same handedness (i.e. righty-vs-righty), and being able to avoid those matchups against the bullpen boosts performance and creates hidden edge.
• St. Louis Cardinals – 2H Moneyline
  According to the leading projection system (THE BAT), the St. Louis Cardinals’ bullpen projects as the 9th-worst out of all the teams in the game.
  Explain: Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a weak bullpen sneakily creates an easier matchup for the opposing offense and boosts a game’s runs.

Betting Trends

• Over/Under 7.5 Game Total (-115/-105)
  The St. Louis Cardinals have hit the Game Total Under in 6 of their last 9 games at home (+3.90 Units / 40% ROI)
• New York Mets – Run Line -1.5 (+145)
  The New York Mets have hit the Run Line in 12 of their last 19 games (+6.80 Units / 29% ROI)
• Brandon Nimmo – Over/Under 0.5 Home Runs (+590/-1100)
  Brandon Nimmo has hit the Home Runs Over in 3 of his last 10 away games (+8.30 Units / 83% ROI)