Boston Red Sox
Toronto Blue Jays
(-120/+100)-105
As the Toronto Blue Jays prepare to face the Boston Red Sox on May 1, 2025, they find themselves in a challenging position. Both teams are battling below the .500 mark, with the Blue Jays sitting at 14-16 and the Red Sox at 17-15. While the Red Sox have shown themselves to be the stronger team so far this season, the Blue Jays are known for their ability to compete fiercely in divisional matchups, creating an intriguing dynamic.
In their previous game, the Red Sox narrowly defeated the Blue Jays, adding pressure to Toronto as they seek to even the series. On the mound, the Blue Jays will send out Jose Berrios, who has had a mixed season with a 1-1 record and a 4.24 ERA. Berrios has struggled with control, reflected in his high 10.4 BB%, making him vulnerable against a patient Red Sox lineup that ranks 2nd in walks. The projections indicate that Berrios may allow around 3.1 earned runs and 1.7 walks today, showcasing his inconsistency.
Conversely, Tanner Houck, starting for the Red Sox, will be looking to improve on his disappointing 0-2 record and a dreadful 7.58 ERA. The projections suggest that he may yield around 2.9 earned runs. Interestingly, Houck has the advantage of facing a Blue Jays offense that has struggled overall, ranking 25th in MLB.
The Blue Jays’ batting order has been underperforming, particularly in power numbers, ranking 29th in home runs. This could play into Houck’s strengths as a groundball pitcher, which may limit Toronto’s scoring opportunities.
With both teams showing signs of struggle, fans can expect a closely contested game, particularly with the current moneyline set at -110 for both teams, indicating a balanced matchup. A low-scoring affair seems likely, and with a game total set at 8.5 runs, the Blue Jays will need to capitalize on any opportunities presented to them.
Boston Red Sox Insights
- Boston Red Sox – 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline (-120)Tanner Houck is an extreme groundball pitcher (51.1% GB% via the leading projection system, THE BAT), which should make him somewhat immune to the dangers of pitching in Rogers Centre — the #2 HR venue in the league — in today’s game.Explain: This pitcher’s skill set matches up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to better-than-expected performance.
- Rob Refsnyder – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-160/+125)Rob Refsnyder has primarily hit in the top-half of the batting order this year (63% of the time), but he is projected to hit 7th on the lineup card in today’s game.Explain: The lower in the order a player bats, the fewer plate appearances he will get and the fewer opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits lower in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting higher.
- Trevor Story – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+135/-175)Trevor Story hits many of his flyballs to center field (38.8% — 85th percentile) and is a great match for the park considering he’ll be hitting towards MLB’s 10th-shallowest CF fences in today’s game.Explain: This player’s skill set matches up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.
Toronto Blue Jays Insights
- Jose Berrios – Over/Under 5.5 Strikeouts (+110/-145)This season, Jose Berrios has introduced a new pitch to his arsenal (a slider), working it in on 25.5% of his pitches.Explain: Adding an extra pitch often leads to more success because it makes the pitcher more unpredictable and keeps hitters guessing more, and change-ups are one of the most effective pitches to use.
- Vladimir Guerrero Jr – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+105/-135)This season, Vladimir Guerrero Jr. has experienced a significant improvement in his exit velocity on flyballs, now sitting at an average of 97.5 mph compared to last year’s 95 mph mark.Explain: Most home runs are flyballs, and the harder those flyballs are hit, the more often they turn into home runs. This is a strong indicator of power.
- According to the leading projection system (THE BAT X), the team with the least strikeout-prone lineup today is the Toronto Blue Jays with a 18.1% underlying K%.Explain: THE BAT X analyzes each player in today’s specific lineup to figure out which teams have the least inherent strikeout potential for the opposing pitcher.
Betting Trends
- Over/Under 8.5 Game Total (-120/+100)The Toronto Blue Jays have hit the Game Total Under in 16 of their last 25 games (+6.07 Units / 22% ROI)
- Boston Red Sox – 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line -0.5 (+120)The Boston Red Sox have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 9 of their last 12 games (+6.05 Units / 43% ROI)
- Alan Roden – Over/Under 1.5 Hits Runs and RBIs (+120/-155)Alan Roden has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Under in his last 7 games (+7.95 Units / 89% ROI)