Betting Trends for Mets vs Nationals Game – 4/25/25

New York Mets

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Washington Nationals

As the Washington Nationals prepare to host the New York Mets on April 25, 2025, both teams enter this matchup with contrasting recent performances. The Mets are riding high after a thrilling 4-3 victory in their last game, while the Nationals are looking to bounce back from a disappointing 2-1 loss. This game marks the first of their series, and it holds significant implications for both teams, particularly with the Mets sitting comfortably at 18-7 and the Nationals struggling at 11-14.

On the mound, the Nationals will send Jake Irvin to face off against Kodai Senga for the Mets. Irvin has had a mixed season, ranking as the 183rd best starting pitcher in MLB according to advanced metrics, but he does possess a solid 3.68 ERA this year. However, projections suggest he may be due for regression, as indicated by his elevated 5.02 xERA. Irvin’s last outing on April 20 saw him pitch well, going 6 innings with 2 earned runs and 9 strikeouts, which could provide a glimmer of hope for the Nationals.

Conversely, Senga has emerged as a standout for the Mets, boasting an impressive 0.79 ERA and ranking as the 55th best starting pitcher in MLB. His last start was particularly noteworthy, as he didn’t allow any earned runs over 6 innings, further solidifying his status as a reliable ace.

Offensively, the Nationals rank 21st in MLB, while the Mets sit at 17th, indicating that both lineups have room for improvement. The projections favor the Mets, who have a higher implied team total of 5.37 runs compared to the Nationals’ 4.13. Given the current form of both pitchers and their respective offenses, the Nationals will need a strong performance from Irvin to keep pace with the Mets in this high-stakes matchup.

New York Mets Insights

• Kodai Senga – Over/Under 4.5 Strikeouts (-160/+125)
  Kodai Senga’s high usage rate of his secondary pitches (61.3% since the start of last season) ought to work in his favor since they are typically much more effective than fastballs.
  Explain: A pitcher who limits has fastball usage will instead heavily use change-ups, curveballs, sliders, etc. These are far more effective pitches at preventing runs and generating strikeouts.
• Pete Alonso – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (-110/-120)
  Pete Alonso has seen a big increase in his exit velocity this year; just compare his 94.3-mph average to last season’s 89.7-mph figure.
  Explain: Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.
• New York Mets – Moneyline (-190)
  The 2nd-best projected lineup of all teams on the slate in terms of overall offensive skill is that of the the New York Mets.
  Explain: A pitcher who faces a strong opposing offense will be more likely to underperform his usual performance, particularly in terms of hits and runs, in that game.

Washington Nationals Insights

• Jake Irvin – Over/Under 4.5 Strikeouts (-110/-120)
  Jake Irvin’s fastball velocity has dropped 2.3 mph this season (91.6 mph) below where it was last season (93.9 mph).
  Explain: Velocity is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs, so a pitcher whose velocity decreases will likely see worse results.
• Josh Bell – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-140/+110)
  Extreme groundball hitters like Josh Bell tend to perform better against extreme flyball pitchers like Kodai Senga.
  Explain: This mostly has to do with the way the hitter’s swing plane interacts with the pitch trajectory, and it can create boosted performance across all categories and hidden value few are considering.
• Washington Nationals – 2H Moneyline
  The Washington Nationals bullpen profiles as the 2nd-worst in the majors, per the leading projection system (THE BAT).
  Explain: Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a weak bullpen sneakily creates an easier matchup for the opposing offense and boosts a game’s runs.

Betting Trends

• Over/Under 9.0 Game Total (-115/-105)
  The Washington Nationals have hit the Game Total Under in 7 of their last 8 games (+5.80 Units / 64% ROI)
• New York Mets – Moneyline (-190)
  The New York Mets have hit the Moneyline in 16 of their last 21 games (+9.15 Units / 28% ROI)
• Mark Vientos – Over/Under 0.5 Runs (+130/-170)
  Mark Vientos has hit the Runs Over in 7 of his last 8 games (+9.95 Units / 123% ROI)