Dodgers vs Cubs Betting Line and Odds – April 23, 2025

Los Angeles Dodgers

@

Chicago Cubs

As the Chicago Cubs prepare to host the Los Angeles Dodgers at Wrigley Field on April 23, 2025, the stakes are high in this National League matchup. Both teams are enjoying strong seasons, with the Cubs holding a 15-10 record and the Dodgers slightly ahead at 16-8. The Cubs are coming off an exhilarating 11-10 victory over the Dodgers just yesterday, which adds an extra layer of intensity to today’s game.

Matthew Boyd, projected to start for the Cubs, has had an interesting season thus far. Although his 2.01 ERA is impressive, advanced metrics suggest he may have benefitted from some good fortune, as his xFIP sits at 4.54. Boyd’s high flyball rate (39 FB%) could be a concern against a powerful Dodgers lineup that ranks 2nd in MLB in home runs. In his last start on April 16, Boyd pitched well, allowing just 2 earned runs over 5 innings.

On the other side, the Dodgers will counter with Noah Davis, who has struggled considerably this season. With an ERA that places him among the worst pitchers in MLB, Davis projects to pitch only 3.7 innings today, which could lead to trouble for Los Angeles. His last outing saw him surrender 4 earned runs in just 4 innings, raising concerns about his ability to keep the game competitive.

Offensively, the Cubs boast the 1st best offense in MLB, with rankings of 3rd in both batting average and home runs. In contrast, the Dodgers’ offense ranks 9th overall but is 21st in batting average, indicating inconsistency. Given the Cubs’ explosive offense and Boyd’s solid form, they may have the upper hand in this matchup, especially considering the projections favor a high team total of 4.75 runs for both squads. This game promises to be a thrilling showdown as both teams look to assert their dominance in the series.

Los Angeles Dodgers Insights

• Los Angeles Dodgers – 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline (-110)
  Noah Davis is an extreme flyball pitcher (34.5% FB% per the leading projection system, THE BAT) and should be aided by pitching in the #21 HR venue in Major League Baseball today.
  Explain: This pitcher’s skill set matches up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.
• Freddie Freeman – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+145/-185)
  Freddie Freeman is apt to have an edge against every reliever for the whole game, since the bullpen of the Chicago Cubs has just 1 same-handed RP.
  Explain: Hitters perform worse against pitchers of the same handedness (i.e. righty-vs-righty), and being able to avoid those matchups against the bullpen boosts performance and creates hidden edge.
• Los Angeles Dodgers – 2H Moneyline
  The Los Angeles Dodgers bullpen ranks as the 4th-best in baseball, via the leading projection system (THE BAT).
  Explain: Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a strong bullpen sneakily creates a tougher matchup for the opposing offense and suppresses a game’s runs.

Chicago Cubs Insights

• Matthew Boyd – Over/Under 5.5 Strikeouts (+120/-155)
  The Los Angeles Dodgers have 6 bats in the projected offense that will receive the benefit of the platoon advantage against Matthew Boyd in this matchup.
  Explain: Right-handed pitchers perform worse against left-handed hitters (and visa-versa). If several hitters hold this advantage against the pitcher, it can have a huge impact on whether he will perform well or struggle on any given day.
• Jon Berti – Over/Under Total Bases
  Extreme flyball bats like Jon Berti usually hit better against extreme groundball pitchers like Noah Davis.
  Explain: This mostly has to do with the way the hitter’s swing plane interacts with the pitch trajectory, and it can create boosted performance across all categories and hidden value few are considering.
• Ian Happ – Over/Under Total Bases
  Ian Happ has an 83rd percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (34.5%) and sets up very well considering he’ll be hitting them towards the game’s 6th-shallowest LF fences today.
  Explain: This player’s skill set matches up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

Betting Trends

• Chicago Cubs – 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline (-125)
  The Chicago Cubs have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 15 of their last 21 games (+11.00 Units / 40% ROI)
• Los Angeles Dodgers – 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline (-110)
  The Los Angeles Dodgers have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 4 of their last 6 games (+2.85 Units / 28% ROI)
• Mookie Betts – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-220/+165)
  Mookie Betts has hit the Hits Under in 7 of his last 9 games (+7.25 Units / 54% ROI)