Betting Trends and Expert Picks for Angels vs Rangers Tuesday, April 15, 2025

Los Angeles Angels

@

Texas Rangers

On April 15, 2025, the Texas Rangers will host the Los Angeles Angels at Globe Life Field in what promises to be an engaging American League West matchup. Both teams are off to solid starts this season, with the Rangers holding a record of 9-7 and the Angels slightly ahead at 9-6. Interestingly, both teams are coming off losses in their last games, with the Rangers falling to the New York Yankees 3-1 and the Angels losing to the Seattle Mariners 7-3.

The Rangers will send Tyler Mahle to the mound, who has been impressive this season with a 2-0 record and an outstanding ERA of 1.32. However, projections suggest that Mahle may have been somewhat fortunate, as his 4.45 xFIP indicates he could be due for a regression. Mahle’s high flyball rate (47 FB%) could be a concern against the Angels’ powerful lineup, which has hit 30 home runs this season, ranking 3rd in MLB.

Yusei Kikuchi, the Angels’ starter, has struggled with a 0-2 record and a 5.00 ERA. While his projections suggest he could improve, he faces a Rangers offense that ranks 24th in MLB, showing inconsistency. The Rangers have been particularly ineffective at the plate, holding a 26th rank in team batting average.

Betting markets currently favor the Rangers with a moneyline of -125, implying a win probability of 53%. This suggests that while both teams are closely matched, the Rangers may have the edge, especially with Mahle’s recent form and the Angels’ pitching vulnerabilities. The Game Total is set at 9.0 runs, indicating expectations for a competitive game.

Los Angeles Angels Insights

• Yusei Kikuchi – Over/Under 5.5 Strikeouts (-115/-115)
  Yusei Kikuchi’s fastball velocity has decreased 1.8 mph this year (93.8 mph) below where it was last year (95.6 mph).
  Explain: Velocity is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs, so a pitcher whose velocity decreases will likely see worse results.
• Mike Trout – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+125/-160)
  Typically, bats like Mike Trout who hit a lot of groundballs tend to be less successful when facing pitchers who also induce a lot of groundballs such as Tyler Mahle.
  Explain: This mostly has to do with the way the hitter’s swing plane interacts with the pitch trajectory, and it can create diminished performance across all categories and hidden value few are considering.
• Los Angeles Angels – 2H Moneyline
  The Los Angeles Angels bullpen ranks as the 9th-best in the game, via the leading projection system (THE BAT).
  Explain: Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a strong bullpen sneakily creates a tougher matchup for the opposing offense and suppresses a game’s runs.

Texas Rangers Insights

• Texas Rangers – 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline (-135)
  Tyler Mahle is an extreme flyball pitcher (37.7% FB% via the leading projection system, THE BAT) and has the misfortune of pitching in the #10 HR venue in the league in today’s game.
  Explain: This pitcher’s skill set does not match up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.
• Josh Jung – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-235/+180)
  Josh Jung is projected to hit 3rd in the batting order in this game, which would be an upgrade from his 71% rate of hitting in the bottom-half of the batting order this year.
  Explain: The higher in the order a player bats, the more plate appearances he will get and the more opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits higher in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting lower.
• Josh Jung – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+125/-160)
  Josh Jung hits a lot of his flyballs to center field (40.9% — 100th percentile) and has the misfortune of hitting them in the direction of the game’s 7th-deepest CF fences in today’s matchup.
  Explain: This player’s skill set does not match up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.

Betting Trends

• Over/Under 9.0 Game Total (-110/-110)
  The Texas Rangers have hit the Game Total Over in 7 of their last 12 games (+1.50 Units / 11% ROI)
• Los Angeles Angels – Over/Under 2.5 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total (+125/-160)
  The Los Angeles Angels have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 44 of their last 83 away games (+3.65 Units / 4% ROI)
• Ezequiel Duran – Over/Under 0.5 Runs (+165/-220)
  Ezequiel Duran has hit the Runs Under in 19 of his last 25 games at home (+6.90 Units / 13% ROI)