Explore Betting Odds and Expert Picks for Twins vs Royals – April 7, 2025

Minnesota Twins

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Kansas City Royals

On April 7, 2025, the Kansas City Royals will host the Minnesota Twins at Kauffman Stadium in the first game of their series. Both teams are struggling early in the season, with the Royals at 4-5 and the Twins at 3-6. The Royals are coming off a victory on April 6, where they won 4-1, while the Twins fell short in a tight loss, 9-7, highlighting their ongoing difficulties.

Kansas City’s Michael Lorenzen is projected to start, entering with a lackluster 0-1 record and a 5.06 ERA. However, according to advanced metrics, his 3.20 xFIP suggests he has been somewhat unlucky and may improve as the season progresses. Lorenzen’s high walk rate could pose challenges against a Twins offense that struggles to capitalize on free passes, making this an intriguing matchup.

On the other hand, Minnesota’s Simeon Woods Richard takes the mound with a more favorable 4.50 ERA, although his underlying metrics reveal he is also below average. The projections indicate a tough outing ahead, given his 29.4% strikeout rate matched against a Royals offense that exhibits one of the 6 least strikeout rates in MLB. This may give Kansas City an edge, as they could exploit Woods Richard’s high-flyball tendency.

The Royals’ offense ranks 31st in the league in batting average, which could be a concern against a Twins bullpen ranked 9th. This game total sits at 8.0 runs, suggesting a close contest with potential for a low-scoring affair. The Royals are slightly favored, indicated by their moneyline at -120, suggesting a tight battle between two teams eager to turn their seasons around.

Minnesota Twins Insights

• Minnesota Twins – 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline (-110)
  Simeon Woods Richardson is an extreme flyball pitcher (36.4% FB% per the leading projection system, THE BAT) and should be helped pitching in the #30 HR venue in the league in this game.
  Explain: This pitcher’s skill set matches up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.
• Matt Wallner – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-150/+115)
  Matt Wallner’s exit velocity on flyballs has decreased this season; his 98.4-mph figure last season has fallen off to 96.2-mph.
  Explain: Most home runs are flyballs, and the harder those flyballs are hit, the more often they turn into home runs. This is a strong indicator of power.
• Minnesota Twins – 2H Moneyline
  The Minnesota Twins bullpen ranks as the 9th-best in Major League Baseball, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT).
  Explain: Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a strong bullpen sneakily creates a tougher matchup for the opposing offense and suppresses a game’s runs.

Kansas City Royals Insights

• Michael Lorenzen – Over/Under 4.5 Strikeouts (+105/-135)
  Michael Lorenzen has relied on his cut-fastball 6.3% more often this season (16.5%) than he did last year (10.2%).
  Explain: Because cutters are one of the most effective pitches to use, a pitcher who alters his pitch mix to use more of them will often see more success as a result.
• Salvador Perez – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+135/-175)
  Typically, bats like Salvador Perez who hit a lot of flyballs tend to be less successful when facing pitchers who also induce a lot of flyballs such as Simeon Woods Richard.
  Explain: This mostly has to do with the way the hitter’s swing plane interacts with the pitch trajectory, and it can create diminished performance across all categories and hidden value few are considering.
• Hunter Renfroe – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-140/+110)
  Hunter Renfroe pulls a lot of his flyballs (40% — 98th percentile) and has the misfortune of hitting them in the direction of the league’s 4th-deepest LF fences in today’s game.
  Explain: This player’s skill set does not match up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.

Betting Trends

• Over/Under 8.0 Game Total (-110/-110)
  The Kansas City Royals have hit the Game Total Under in 27 of their last 38 games (+15.80 Units / 38% ROI)
• Over/Under 8.0 Game Total (-110/-110)
  The Minnesota Twins have hit the Game Total Over in 75 of their last 141 games (+11.75 Units / 8% ROI)
• Michael Massey – Over/Under 0.5 Runs (+150/-195)
  Michael Massey has hit the Runs Under in his last 10 games at home (+10.00 Units / 57% ROI)