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Tony Pollard

Tony Pollard Receiving Yards
Player Prop Week 11

Tennessee Titans vs Houston Texans

 
 
 
Tony Pollard Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 9.5 (-116/-109).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 10.5 @ -118 before it was bet down to 9.5 @ -109.
FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:
  • The Titans are a giant 7-point underdog this week, which points towards an extreme passing game script.
  • Our trusted projections expect the Titans offense to be the 8th-quickest paced team in football (context-neutralized) at the present time, averaging 27.55 seconds per play.
  • When it comes to air yards, Tony Pollard grades out in the towering 78th percentile among RBs this year, accumulating an astounding 1.0 per game. (considering most of their targets come behind the line of scrimmage, that is much more noteworthy than it appears since most RBs average negative air yards).
  • Tony Pollard's 85.8% Adjusted Completion Rate this season marks a meaningful growth in his receiving proficiency over last season's 74.2% figure.
  • Tony Pollard's pass-catching effectiveness has improved this year, averaging 6.49 adjusted yards-per-target vs a mere 4.24 rate last year.

  • FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:
  • At the moment, the 7th-least pass-centric team in the NFL (59.0% adjusted for context) according to the model is the Titans.
  • Tony Pollard's 12.5 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—an advanced statistic that examines high-value offensive involvement) has been substantially lower this year than it was last year at 18.1.
  • Tony Pollard's 0.00 yards-after-the-catch (YAC) this year reflects an impressive diminishment in his efficiency in the open field over last year's 5.4% mark.
  • This year, the tough Houston Texans defense has surrendered a measly 24.0 adjusted receiving yards per game versus opposing running backs: the 8th-fewest in the league.
  • This year, the stout Houston Texans defense has surrendered a mere 72.5% Adjusted Completion Rate to opposing RBs: the smallest rate in football.

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