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Josh Allen

Josh Allen Interceptions
Player Prop Week 5

Buffalo Bills vs New England Patriots

 
 
 
Josh Allen Interceptions Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (+118/-157).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 0.5 @ +155 before it was bet up to 0.5 @ +118.
FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:
  • The Bills have run the 10th-most plays in football this year, averaging a colossal 58.8 plays per game.
  • Calm weather conditions (like the 3-mph wind being predicted in this game) typically mean increased passing effectiveness, higher TD potential, higher pass volume, and reduced ground volume.
  • The Buffalo O-line grades out as the 4th-best in the league this year in pass protection, which has a positive influence on all passing game statistics across the board.
  • The New England cornerbacks rank as the 2nd-worst unit in the NFL this year in covering pass-catchers.

  • FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:
  • With a 7.5-point advantage, the Bills are a heavy favorite in this week's game, suggesting much more of a reliance on running than their standard game plan.
  • The projections expect the Buffalo Bills as the 5th-least pass-oriented offense on the slate this week with a 54.6% pass rate, based on their underlying play style and matchup dynamics.
  • The model projects the Bills to run the 4th-fewest plays on offense on the slate this week with 62.3 plays, based on their underlying propensities and game dynamics.
  • The predictive model expects Josh Allen to throw 32.3 passes in this contest, on balance: the 6th-fewest among all quarterbacks.
  • In throwing a measly 0.19 interceptions per game this year, Josh Allen places among the top quarterbacks in football (76th percentile).

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