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Baker Mayfield Touchdowns
Player Prop Week 11

Buffalo Bills vs Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Baker Mayfield Touchdowns Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (+780/-1050).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 0.5 @ -960 before it was bet down to 0.5 @ -1050.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:

This week's spread implies a passing game script for the Buccaneers, who are -6.5-point underdogs.

Right now, the 7th-most pass-focused team in football near the goal line (59.3% adjusted for context) according to the projections is the Buccaneers.

Baker Mayfield has not attempted to run the ball himself near the goal line at all this year.

The Buccaneers O-line ranks as the 9th-best in football this year in pass protection, which has a strong impact on all passing offense statistics across the board.

The running touchdown field reads "0" on the back of Baker Mayfield's trading card this year.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:

Given their underlying traits and game dynamics, the Tampa Bay Buccaneers are forecasted by the model to call only 61.9 offensive plays in this game: the lowest number among all teams this week.

The forecast calls for 20-mph wind in this game. High wind usually means reduced pass volume (and higher run volume) and lessened passing efficiency.

Opposing teams have averaged 28.8 pass attempts per game vs. the Buffalo Bills defense this year: 3rd-fewest in the league.

Baker Mayfield's 64.2% Adjusted Completion% this year illustrates a remarkable regression in his throwing accuracy over last year's 71.1% mark.

The Buffalo Bills defense has yielded the 4th-fewest TDs through the air in the NFL: 1.00 per game this year.

More Baker Mayfield Player Props

Baker Mayfield TouchdownsPlayer Prop Week 11

Buffalo Bills vs Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Baker Mayfield Touchdowns
Player Prop Week 11