{"id":9695,"date":"2024-07-13T03:25:02","date_gmt":"2024-07-13T07:25:02","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/evanalytics.com\/articles\/uncategorized\/analyze-the-team-stats-and-insights-for-marlins-vs-reds-match-preview-july-13-2024\/"},"modified":"2024-07-13T16:13:05","modified_gmt":"2024-07-13T20:13:05","slug":"analyze-the-team-stats-and-insights-for-marlins-vs-reds-match-preview-july-13-2024","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/evanalytics.com\/articles\/mlb-game-previews\/analyze-the-team-stats-and-insights-for-marlins-vs-reds-match-preview-july-13-2024\/","title":{"rendered":"Analyze the Team Stats and Insights for Marlins vs Reds Match Preview – July 13, 2024"},"content":{"rendered":"
\n
\n
\"Miami<\/p>\n

Miami Marlins<\/h4>\n<\/div>\n
@<\/div>\n
\"Cincinnati<\/p>\n

Cincinnati Reds<\/h4>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
+125<\/span>O\/U: 9.5
(-110\/-110)<\/span>-150<\/span><\/div>\n

The Cincinnati Reds are set to host the Miami Marlins on July 13, 2024, at Great American Ball Park for the second game of their series. The Reds, currently sporting a 46-49 record, are having a below-average season but are coming off a 7-4 victory against the Marlins on July 12. The Marlins, on the other hand, are enduring a dismal season with a 32-62 record and will look to bounce back after their recent loss.<\/p>\n

On the mound for the Reds will be left-hander Andrew Abbott, who has been solid this season with a 9-6 record and a stellar 3.06<\/a> ERA. However, Abbott’s 4.84 xFIP suggests he may have been somewhat fortunate and could regress. Abbott’s last start was impressive, as he pitched seven scoreless innings with eight strikeouts, indicating he\u2019s capable of dominating on any given day.<\/p>\n

The Marlins will counter with Edward Cabrera, a right-hander with a 1-2 record and a rough 6.84<\/a> ERA. Despite these struggles, Cabrera’s 3.47 xFIP indicates he\u2019s been unlucky and might perform better moving forward. Cabrera’s last outing saw him pitch four innings with two earned runs, which was a step in the right direction.<\/p>\n

Offensively, the Reds rank 16th in MLB, largely thanks to their top hitter, Elly De La Cruz, who has posted a .816 OPS with 15<\/a> home runs and 46<\/a> stolen bases. Rece Hinds has been red-hot over the past week, boasting a .474 batting average and a 1.711 OPS with three home runs and eight RBIs.<\/p>\n

The Marlins\u2019 offense is the worst in MLB, ranking 30th overall and struggling mightily with power, as evidenced by their 30th-place ranking in team home runs. Jazz Chisholm has been a bright spot, leading the team with 12<\/a> home runs and 18<\/a> stolen bases. Dane Myers has been their best hitter recently, hitting .417 with a 1.128 OPS over the last week.<\/p>\n

The Reds are favored with a moneyline of -160, implying a 60% chance of winning. However, according to THE BAT X, the leading MLB projection system, the Marlins’ win probability is 50%, suggesting there might be value in betting on the underdog Marlins, especially given Cabrera’s potential for improvement and the Reds’ vulnerable bullpen, ranked 25th in MLB.<\/p>\n

Miami Marlins Insights<\/h3>\n
    \n
  • \n
    Edward Cabrera – Over\/Under 6.5 Strikeouts (+120\/-155)<\/strong><\/div>\n
    Out of all SPs, Edward Cabrera’s fastball velocity of 95.2 mph grades out in the 90th percentile this year.<\/div>\n
    Explain:<\/strong> Velocity is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs.<\/em><\/small><\/div>\n<\/li>\n
  • \n
    Josh Bell – Over\/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+135\/-180)<\/strong><\/div>\n
    Extreme groundball bats like Josh Bell tend to be more successful against extreme flyball pitchers like Andrew Abbott.<\/div>\n
    Explain:<\/strong> This mostly has to do with the way the hitter’s swing plane interacts with the pitch trajectory, and it can create boosted performance across all categories and hidden value few are considering.<\/em><\/small><\/div>\n<\/li>\n
  • \n
    <\/strong><\/div>\n
    Miami’s 88.4-mph average exit velocity this year ranks among the worst in the game: #23 overall.<\/div>\n
    Explain:<\/strong> Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.<\/em><\/small><\/div>\n<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n

    Cincinnati Reds Insights<\/h3>\n
      \n
    • \n
      Cincinnati Reds – 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline (-155)<\/strong><\/div>\n
      Andrew Abbott is an extreme flyball pitcher (40.5% FB% according to the leading projection system, THE BAT) and is stuck pitching in the #1 HR venue among all major league parks today.<\/div>\n
      Explain:<\/strong> This pitcher’s skill set does not match up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.<\/em><\/small><\/div>\n<\/li>\n
    • \n
      Jake Fraley – Over\/Under 0.5 Hits (-165\/+125)<\/strong><\/div>\n
      Jake Fraley is projected to bat 6th in the lineup today, which would be a downgrade from his 87% rate of hitting in the top-half of the batting order this season.<\/div>\n
      Explain:<\/strong> The lower in the order a player bats, the fewer plate appearances he will get and the fewer opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits lower in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting higher.<\/em><\/small><\/div>\n<\/li>\n
    • \n
      Jeimer Candelario – Over\/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-180\/+135)<\/strong><\/div>\n
      Jeimer Candelario pulls a high percentage of his flyballs (37.8% \u2014 95th percentile) and has the good fortune of hitting them towards MLB’s 8th-shallowest RF fences in today’s matchup.<\/div>\n
      Explain:<\/strong> This player’s skill set matches up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.<\/em><\/small><\/div>\n<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n

      Betting Trends<\/h3>\n
        \n
      • \n
        Over\/Under 9.5 Game Total (-110\/-110)<\/strong><\/div>\n
        The Cincinnati Reds have hit the Game Total Under in 42 of their last 75 games (+10.05 Units \/ 12% ROI)<\/div>\n<\/li>\n
      • \n
        Miami Marlins – Over\/Under 1.5 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total (-155\/+120)<\/strong><\/div>\n
        The Miami Marlins have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 48 of their last 78 games (+14.70 Units \/ 16% ROI)<\/div>\n<\/li>\n
      • \n
        Josh Bell – Over\/Under 0.5 RBIs (+185\/-245)<\/strong><\/div>\n
        Josh Bell has hit the RBIs Under in his last 10 away games (+10.00 Units \/ 40% ROI)<\/div>\n<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n
        \n
        <\/form>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

        The Cincinnati Reds are set to host the Miami Marlins on July 13, 2024, at Great American Ball Park for the second game of their series. The Reds, currently sporting… <\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":9696,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[3],"tags":[247,381,15,353,250,248,251,241,465,66,126,242,249,243,26,73,246,239,240,253,245,252,244],"class_list":["post-9695","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-mlb-game-previews","tag-analysis","tag-andrew-abbott","tag-cincinnati-reds","tag-edward-cabrera","tag-game-breakdown","tag-game-forecast","tag-head-to-head","tag-insights","tag-jake-fraley","tag-jeimer-candelario","tag-josh-bell","tag-match","tag-match-preview","tag-matchup","tag-miami-marlins","tag-mlb","tag-prediction","tag-preview","tag-rankings","tag-score-prediction","tag-simulation","tag-team-stats","tag-winning-probability"],"yoast_head":"\nAnalyze the Team Stats and Insights for Marlins vs Reds Match Preview - July 13, 2024 - WriteNow\u2122 by EV Analytics<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"Get an in-depth game preview and prediction for Miami Marlins vs. Cincinnati Reds on July 13, 2024. 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