{"id":96117,"date":"2025-03-28T03:43:02","date_gmt":"2025-03-28T07:43:02","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/evanalytics.com\/articles\/uncategorized\/athletics-vs-mariners-match-preview-and-winning-probability-friday-march-28-2025\/"},"modified":"2025-03-28T22:13:03","modified_gmt":"2025-03-29T02:13:03","slug":"athletics-vs-mariners-match-preview-and-winning-probability-friday-march-28-2025","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/evanalytics.com\/articles\/mlb-game-previews\/athletics-vs-mariners-match-preview-and-winning-probability-friday-march-28-2025\/","title":{"rendered":"Athletics vs Mariners Match Preview and Winning Probability &#8211; Friday March 28, 2025"},"content":{"rendered":"<div class=\"eva_article_wrap\">\n<div class=\"eva_team_logos\">\n<div class=\"eva_away_team\"><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/evanalytics.com\/images\/mlb\/ATH.png\" alt=\"Athletics logo\" \/><\/p>\n<h4>Athletics<\/h4>\n<\/div>\n<div class=\"eva_matchup_symbol\">@<\/div>\n<div class=\"eva_home_team\"><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/evanalytics.com\/images\/mlb\/SEA.png\" alt=\"Seattle Mariners logo\" \/><\/p>\n<h4>Seattle Mariners<\/h4>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<div class=\"eva_odds\"><span>+120<\/span><span>O\/U: 7<br \/>(-110\/-110)<\/span><span>-140<\/span><\/div>\n<p>On March 28, 2025, the Seattle Mariners will host the Oakland Athletics at T-Mobile Park in what marks the second game of their series. Both teams are eager to make their mark early in the season, with the Mariners currently sitting at 1-0, while the Athletics find themselves at 0-1. The Mariners are riding high after a strong start, while the Athletics are looking to bounce back after a disappointing debut.<\/p>\n<p>Projected to start for the Mariners is Luis Castillo, a right-handed pitcher who ranks as the 78th best starter in MLB according to the leading MLB projection system. Although Castillo has shown some concerning projections, particularly allowing an average of 4.3 hits and 1.3 walks, he compensates with a low earned run projection of 1.9. On the other side of the mound, the Athletics will counter with left-hander Jeffrey Springs, who is considered below average and has a troubling projection of 4.2 hits allowed per game, along with 1.6 walks.<\/p>\n<p>With a game total set at a low 7.0 runs, the Mariners find themselves as betting favorites with a moneyline of -150, suggesting a strong likelihood of victory. Their average implied team total stands at 3.81 runs, which presents a favorable situation against an Athletics lineup struggling to score, with a very low implied team total of just 3.19 runs.<\/p>\n<p>As both teams look to establish momentum, the Mariners appear to have the edge, especially with Castillo&#8217;s above-average performance potential against a faltering Athletics offense. This matchup could prove pivotal for both teams as they navigate their early-season challenges.<\/p>\n<h3 style=\"margin: 3rem 0 0 0;\">Athletics Insights<\/h3>\n<ul>\n<li>\n<div style=\"display: block; margin: 0.75rem 0;\"><strong>Jeffrey Springs &#8211; Over\/Under 15.5 Pitching Outs (+150\/-195)<\/strong><\/div>\n<div style=\"display: block; margin: 0.25rem 0;\">Compared to the average pitcher, Jeffrey Springs has been given a below-average leash since the start of last season, recording an -11.2 fewer adjusted pitches each game.<\/div>\n<div style=\"display: block; margin: 0.25rem 0 1.5rem;\"><small><em><strong>Explain:<\/strong> Pitchers with a shorter leash are more likely to get pulled earlier in games and record fewer outs.<\/em><\/small><\/div>\n<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<h3 style=\"margin: 3rem 0 0 0;\">Seattle Mariners Insights<\/h3>\n<ul>\n<li>\n<div style=\"display: block; margin: 0.75rem 0;\"><strong>Luis Castillo &#8211; Over\/Under Strikeouts<\/strong><\/div>\n<div style=\"display: block; margin: 0.25rem 0;\">When it comes to his strikeout skill, the leading projection system (THE BAT) puts Luis Castillo in the 79th percentile among all starters in the game.<\/div>\n<div style=\"display: block; margin: 0.25rem 0 1.5rem;\"><small><em><strong>Explain:<\/strong> THE BAT X is a highly sophisticated projection system that accounts for a multitude of factors and regularly tests among the most accurate systems available.<\/em><\/small><\/div>\n<\/li>\n<li>\n<div style=\"display: block; margin: 0.75rem 0;\"><strong>Cal Raleigh &#8211; Over\/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+130\/-170)<\/strong><\/div>\n<div style=\"display: block; margin: 0.25rem 0;\">Sacramento&#8217;s 3rd-worst outfield defense of all teams on the slate today creates a favorable matchup for Cal Raleigh, who tends to hit a lot of flyballs.<\/div>\n<div style=\"display: block; margin: 0.25rem 0 1.5rem;\"><small><em><strong>Explain:<\/strong> This player&#8217;s skill set matches up well with the opposing team&#8217;s defensive weakness, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.<\/em><\/small><\/div>\n<\/li>\n<li>\n<div style=\"display: block; margin: 0.75rem 0;\"><strong>Mitch Garver &#8211; Over\/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-135\/+105)<\/strong><\/div>\n<div style=\"display: block; margin: 0.25rem 0;\">Mitch Garver pulls a lot of his flyballs (41.2% \u2014 99th percentile) and sets up very well considering he&#8217;ll be hitting them towards the league&#8217;s 8th-shallowest LF fences today.<\/div>\n<div style=\"display: block; margin: 0.25rem 0 1.5rem;\"><small><em><strong>Explain:<\/strong> This player&#8217;s skill set matches up particularly well with the park he&#8217;s in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.<\/em><\/small><\/div>\n<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<h3 style=\"margin: 3rem 0 0 0;\">Betting Trends<\/h3>\n<ul>\n<li>\n<div style=\"display: block; margin: 0.75rem 0;\"><strong>Over\/Under 7.0 Game Total (-110\/-110)<\/strong><\/div>\n<div style=\"display: block; margin: 0.25rem 0 1.5rem;\">The Seattle Mariners have hit the Game Total Under in 44 of their last 78 games at home (+11.05 Units \/ 13% ROI)<\/div>\n<\/li>\n<li>\n<div style=\"display: block; margin: 0.75rem 0;\"><strong>Athletics &#8211; Moneyline (+120)<\/strong><\/div>\n<div style=\"display: block; margin: 0.25rem 0 1.5rem;\">The Athletics have hit the Moneyline in 40 of their last 79 games (+9.00 Units \/ 11% ROI)<\/div>\n<\/li>\n<li>\n<div style=\"display: block; margin: 0.75rem 0;\"><strong>Jeffrey Springs &#8211; Over\/Under 2.5 Walks Allowed (+145\/-190)<\/strong><\/div>\n<div style=\"display: block; margin: 0.25rem 0 1.5rem;\">Jeffrey Springs has hit the Walks Allowed Over in his last 3 away games (+3.05 Units \/ 80% ROI)<\/div>\n<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<div>\n<form><input type=\"hidden\" id=\"ga-page-group\" name=\"ga-page-group\" value=\"GAME PREVIEW\"><input type=\"hidden\" id=\"ga-sport\" name=\"ga-sport\" \"value=\"mlb\"><input type=\"hidden\" id=\"ga-title-id\" name=\"ga-title-id\"value=\"1.12.1\"><input type=\"hidden\" id=\"ga-title-group\" name=\"ga-title-group\" value=\"PREVIEW\"><input type=\"hidden\" id=\"ga-title-cta\" name=\"ga-title-cta\" value=\"0\"><\/form>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>On March 28, 2025, the Seattle Mariners will host the Oakland Athletics at T-Mobile Park in what marks the second game of their series. Both teams are eager to make&hellip; <\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":96118,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[3],"tags":[247,796,372,250,248,251,241,613,441,242,249,243,101,73,246,239,240,253,4,245,252,244],"class_list":["post-96117","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-mlb-game-previews","tag-analysis","tag-athletics","tag-cal-raleigh","tag-game-breakdown","tag-game-forecast","tag-head-to-head","tag-insights","tag-jeffrey-springs","tag-luis-castillo","tag-match","tag-match-preview","tag-matchup","tag-mitch-garver","tag-mlb","tag-prediction","tag-preview","tag-rankings","tag-score-prediction","tag-seattle-mariners","tag-simulation","tag-team-stats","tag-winning-probability"],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v27.4 - https:\/\/yoast.com\/product\/yoast-seo-wordpress\/ -->\n<title>Athletics vs Mariners Match Preview and Winning Probability - Friday March 28, 2025 - WriteNow\u2122 by EV Analytics<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"Get an in-depth game preview and prediction for Athletics vs. Seattle Mariners on March 28, 2025. 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