{"id":93677,"date":"2024-10-20T00:31:02","date_gmt":"2024-10-20T04:31:02","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/evanalytics.com\/articles\/uncategorized\/player-prop-odds-breakdown-for-mets-vs-dodgers-october-20-2024\/"},"modified":"2024-10-20T23:47:02","modified_gmt":"2024-10-21T03:47:02","slug":"player-prop-odds-breakdown-for-mets-vs-dodgers-october-20-2024","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/evanalytics.com\/articles\/mlb-game-previews\/player-prop-odds-breakdown-for-mets-vs-dodgers-october-20-2024\/","title":{"rendered":"Player Prop Odds Breakdown for Mets vs Dodgers – October 20, 2024"},"content":{"rendered":"
\n
\n
\"New<\/p>\n

New York Mets<\/h4>\n<\/div>\n
@<\/div>\n
\"Los<\/p>\n

Los Angeles Dodgers<\/h4>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
+125<\/span>O\/U: 8.5
(-110\/-110)<\/span>-150<\/span><\/div>\n

As the Los Angeles Dodgers host the New York Mets at Dodger Stadium on October 20, 2024, this National League Championship matchup promises to be intense. The Dodgers, with a 58% chance to win according to THE BAT X, are favored over the Mets, who have a 43% implied win probability. After losing to the Mets 12-6 just two days ago, the Dodgers aim to bounce back in Game 6 of the series.<\/p>\n

Michael Kopech takes the mound for the Dodgers. Despite his solid 3.46<\/a> ERA, advanced metrics suggest he’s been fortunate this season, reflected by his 4.02 FIP. It’s worth noting that Kopech has been primarily a bullpen pitcher with zero starts this year, making his outing a fascinating watch against a high-power Mets lineup that ranks 4th in home runs. The Mets’ patience at the plate could also exploit Kopech’s high walk rate.<\/p>\n

The Mets counter with Sean Manaea, an average pitcher according to power rankings, boasting a 3.47<\/a> ERA. Like Kopech, Manaea’s metrics point to some luck, with a 4.04 xFIP. He faces the daunting task of taming the Dodgers’ top-ranked offense, which leads MLB in home runs. The Dodgers’ power could take advantage of Manaea’s flyball tendencies, potentially turning them into long balls.<\/p>\n

Offensively, both teams pack a punch. The Dodgers’ Shohei Ohtani and the Mets’ Francisco Lindor have been standout performers this season. Recently, Max Muncy has been on a tear for Los Angeles, while Jesse Winker has impressed for New York.<\/p>\n

This game could turn into a slugfest with both pitchers’ susceptibility to the long ball and powerful offenses on each side. With the Dodgers’ bullpen ranking 3rd and the Mets’ 2nd, late-inning heroics could very well decide this crucial game.<\/p>\n

New York Mets Insights<\/h3>\n
    \n
  • \n
    Sean Manaea – Over\/Under 14.5 Pitching Outs (-155\/+120)<\/strong><\/div>\n
    Compared to league average, Sean Manaea has been given more leash than the typical pitcher this year, throwing an additional 4.6 adjusted pitches each start.<\/div>\n
    Explain:<\/strong> Pitchers with a longer leash are more likely to go deeper into games and record more outs.<\/em><\/small><\/div>\n<\/li>\n
  • \n
    Starling Marte – Over\/Under 0.5 Hits (-185\/+140)<\/strong><\/div>\n
    The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Starling Marte in the 92nd percentile as it relates to his batting average ability.<\/div>\n
    Explain:<\/strong> THE BAT X is a highly sophisticated projection system that accounts for a multitude of factors and regularly tests among the most accurate systems available. Batting average is the most common measure of a player’s ability to generate hits.<\/em><\/small><\/div>\n<\/li>\n
  • \n
    <\/strong><\/div>\n
    The New York Mets (22.6% K% (according to the leading projection system, THE BAT X) are projected to have the most strikeout-prone team of hitters on the slate.<\/div>\n
    Explain:<\/strong> THE BAT X analyzes each player in today’s specific lineup to figure out which teams have the most inherent strikeout potential for the opposing pitcher.<\/em><\/small><\/div>\n<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n

    Los Angeles Dodgers Insights<\/h3>\n
      \n
    • \n
      Michael Kopech – Over\/Under 1.5 Strikeouts (-105\/-125)<\/strong><\/div>\n
      The leading projection system (THE BAT) forecasts Michael Kopech in the 88th percentile as it relates to his strikeout ability.<\/div>\n
      Explain:<\/strong> THE BAT X is a highly sophisticated projection system that accounts for a multitude of factors and regularly tests among the most accurate systems available.<\/em><\/small><\/div>\n<\/li>\n
    • \n
      Will Smith – Over\/Under 0.5 Hits (-155\/+120)<\/strong><\/div>\n
      Will Smith has primarily hit in the top-half of the batting order this season (86% of the time), but he is penciled in 8th in the batting order in this matchup.<\/div>\n
      Explain:<\/strong> The lower in the order a player bats, the fewer plate appearances he will get and the fewer opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits lower in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting higher.<\/em><\/small><\/div>\n<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n

      Betting Trends<\/h3>\n
        \n
      • \n
        Over\/Under 8.5 Game Total (-110\/-110)<\/strong><\/div>\n
        The Los Angeles Dodgers have hit the Game Total Over in 65 of their last 106 games (+25.25 Units \/ 22% ROI)<\/div>\n<\/li>\n
      • \n
        New York Mets – Moneyline (+125)<\/strong><\/div>\n
        The New York Mets have hit the Moneyline in 75 of their last 123 games (+21.45 Units \/ 13% ROI)<\/div>\n<\/li>\n
      • \n
        Shohei Ohtani – Over\/Under 1.5 Hits Runs and RBIs (-135\/+105)<\/strong><\/div>\n
        Shohei Ohtani has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Over in 30 of his last 45 games (+13.95 Units \/ 26% ROI)<\/div>\n<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n
        \n
        <\/form>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

        As the Los Angeles Dodgers host the New York Mets at Dodger Stadium on October 20, 2024, this National League Championship matchup promises to be intense. The Dodgers, with a… <\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":93678,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[3],"tags":[8,73,33,231,234,230,229,227,228,225,233,232,226],"class_list":["post-93677","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-mlb-game-previews","tag-los-angeles-dodgers","tag-mlb","tag-new-york-mets","tag-player-analysis","tag-player-insights","tag-player-predictions","tag-player-prop-bets","tag-player-prop-odds","tag-player-prop-picks","tag-player-props","tag-player-rankings","tag-player-stats","tag-player-trends"],"yoast_head":"\nPlayer Prop Odds Breakdown for Mets vs Dodgers - October 20, 2024 - WriteNow\u2122 by EV Analytics<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"Discover the top player props, prop odds, player picks, and prop bets for the New York Mets vs. Los Angeles Dodgers matchup on October 20, 2024. 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