{"id":93386,"date":"2024-10-17T00:56:02","date_gmt":"2024-10-17T04:56:02","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/evanalytics.com\/articles\/uncategorized\/game-breakdown-dodgers-vs-mets-head-to-head-insights-10-17-2024\/"},"modified":"2024-10-17T19:52:02","modified_gmt":"2024-10-17T23:52:02","slug":"game-breakdown-dodgers-vs-mets-head-to-head-insights-10-17-2024","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/evanalytics.com\/articles\/mlb-game-previews\/game-breakdown-dodgers-vs-mets-head-to-head-insights-10-17-2024\/","title":{"rendered":"Game Breakdown: Dodgers vs Mets Head-to-Head Insights 10\/17\/2024"},"content":{"rendered":"
\n
\n
\"Los<\/p>\n

Los Angeles Dodgers<\/h4>\n<\/div>\n
@<\/div>\n
\"New<\/p>\n

New York Mets<\/h4>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
-135<\/span>O\/U: 7
(-115\/-105)<\/span>+115<\/span><\/div>\n

As the Los Angeles Dodgers face off against the New York Mets at Citi Field on October 17, 2024, the stakes are high with this being the fourth game of the National League Championship Series. The Dodgers, riding on the success of their elite offense ranked 1st in MLB, are slightly favored with a moneyline of -130, translating to an implied win probability of 54%.<\/p>\n

On the mound, the Dodgers are leaning on their ace Yoshinobu Yamamoto, who holds an excellent 3.00<\/a> ERA. Statistically, he’s the 12th best in a pool of roughly 350 starting pitchers, according to the leading MLB projection system, THE BAT X. Despite an average strikeout projection of 5.7 batters, Yamamoto’s low-walk rate and high-groundball tendencies could neutralize a Mets offense that ranks 6th in walks.<\/p>\n

Jose Quintana will be the Mets’ starting pitcher, looking to challenge the Dodgers’ potent lineup that leads MLB in home runs. Quintana’s 3.75<\/a> ERA is solid, but indicators suggest he might have been fortunate this year, as his 4.44 xFIP hints at potential regression. His assignment won’t be easy against a Dodgers lineup loaded with power, further underscored by Max Muncy’s recent hot streak sporting a .400 average and 1.625 OPS over the past week.<\/p>\n

Both bullpens will be integral, especially with the potential of short outings from the starters; the Dodgers\u2019 bullpen is ranked 2nd best in MLB while the Mets’ is 13th. With the Dodgers’ implied win probability not much higher than projected, there\u2019s value for bettors to align with Yamamoto’s high-caliber pitching and the Dodgers’ explosive bats to retake control of this series.<\/p>\n

Los Angeles Dodgers Insights<\/h3>\n
    \n
  • \n
    Los Angeles Dodgers – Moneyline (-135)<\/strong><\/div>\n
    Among every team today, the strongest infield defense is that of the the Los Angeles Dodgers.<\/div>\n
    Explain:<\/strong> Defense is an integral part of preventing hits and runs.<\/em><\/small><\/div>\n<\/li>\n
  • \n
    Max Muncy – Over\/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-120\/-110)<\/strong><\/div>\n
    The New York Mets have just 1 same-handed RP in their bullpen, so Max Muncy can likely count on holding the advantage against every reliever all game.<\/div>\n
    Explain:<\/strong> Hitters perform worse against pitchers of the same handedness (i.e. righty-vs-righty), and being able to avoid those matchups against the bullpen boosts performance and creates hidden edge.<\/em><\/small><\/div>\n<\/li>\n
  • \n
    Mookie Betts – Over\/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+140\/-180)<\/strong><\/div>\n
    Mookie Betts hits a lot of his flyballs to center field (39% \u2014 93rd percentile) and sets up very well considering he’ll be hitting out towards the game’s shallowest CF fences in today’s matchup.<\/div>\n
    Explain:<\/strong> This player’s skill set matches up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.<\/em><\/small><\/div>\n<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n

    New York Mets Insights<\/h3>\n
      \n
    • \n
      Jose Quintana – Over\/Under 14.5 Pitching Outs (-145\/+115)<\/strong><\/div>\n
      The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Jose Quintana to throw 83 pitches in today’s matchup (most of all pitchers on the slate today), considering both his underlying tendencies and the matchup.<\/div>\n
      Explain:<\/strong> Pitchers who throw a lot of pitches are more likely to go deeper into the game, record more outs, and generate more strikeouts.<\/em><\/small><\/div>\n<\/li>\n
    • \n
      Jose Iglesias – Over\/Under 0.5 Hits (-185\/+140)<\/strong><\/div>\n
      The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Jose Iglesias in the 94th percentile when it comes to his batting average skill.<\/div>\n
      Explain:<\/strong> THE BAT X is a highly sophisticated projection system that accounts for a multitude of factors and regularly tests among the most accurate systems available. Batting average is the most common measure of a player’s ability to generate hits.<\/em><\/small><\/div>\n<\/li>\n
    • \n
      <\/strong><\/div>\n
      Via the leading projection system (THE BAT X), the offense with the most strikeout-prone lineup on the slate today is the New York Mets with a 23.6% underlying K%.<\/div>\n
      Explain:<\/strong> THE BAT X analyzes each player in today’s specific lineup to figure out which teams have the most inherent strikeout potential for the opposing pitcher.<\/em><\/small><\/div>\n<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n

      Betting Trends<\/h3>\n
        \n
      • \n
        New York Mets – Moneyline (+115)<\/strong><\/div>\n
        The New York Mets have hit the Moneyline in 73 of their last 117 games (+23.30 Units \/ 15% ROI)<\/div>\n<\/li>\n
      • \n
        Over\/Under 7.0 Game Total (-115\/-105)<\/strong><\/div>\n
        The Los Angeles Dodgers have hit the Game Total Over in 46 of their last 72 games (+22.85 Units \/ 29% ROI)<\/div>\n<\/li>\n
      • \n
        Francisco Lindor – Over\/Under 0.5 Hits (-215\/+165)<\/strong><\/div>\n
        Francisco Lindor has hit the Hits Over in 15 of his last 19 games at home (+11.45 Units \/ 30% ROI)<\/div>\n<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n
        \n
        <\/form>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

        As the Los Angeles Dodgers face off against the New York Mets at Citi Field on October 17, 2024, the stakes are high with this being the fourth game of… <\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":93387,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[3],"tags":[247,250,248,251,241,8,242,249,243,73,33,246,239,240,253,245,252,244],"class_list":["post-93386","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-mlb-game-previews","tag-analysis","tag-game-breakdown","tag-game-forecast","tag-head-to-head","tag-insights","tag-los-angeles-dodgers","tag-match","tag-match-preview","tag-matchup","tag-mlb","tag-new-york-mets","tag-prediction","tag-preview","tag-rankings","tag-score-prediction","tag-simulation","tag-team-stats","tag-winning-probability"],"yoast_head":"\nGame Breakdown: Dodgers vs Mets Head-to-Head Insights 10\/17\/2024 - WriteNow\u2122 by EV Analytics<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"Get an in-depth game preview and prediction for Los Angeles Dodgers vs. New York Mets on October 17, 2024. 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