{"id":89443,"date":"2024-09-28T06:07:02","date_gmt":"2024-09-28T10:07:02","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/evanalytics.com\/articles\/uncategorized\/rangers-vs-angels-picks-and-betting-tips-september-28th-2024\/"},"modified":"2024-09-28T21:39:04","modified_gmt":"2024-09-29T01:39:04","slug":"rangers-vs-angels-picks-and-betting-tips-september-28th-2024","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/evanalytics.com\/articles\/mlb-game-previews\/rangers-vs-angels-picks-and-betting-tips-september-28th-2024\/","title":{"rendered":"Rangers vs Angels Picks and Betting Tips – September 28th, 2024"},"content":{"rendered":"
\n
\n
\"Texas<\/p>\n

Texas Rangers<\/h4>\n<\/div>\n
@<\/div>\n
\"Los<\/p>\n

Los Angeles Angels<\/h4>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
-145<\/span>O\/U: 8.5
(-105\/-115)<\/span>+125<\/span><\/div>\n

As the Los Angeles Angels prepare to host the Texas Rangers on September 28, 2024, neither team is in playoff contention, making this American League West matchup more about pride and player development. The Angels, with a dismal 63-97 record, are having a rough season, while the Rangers, at 76-84, are performing below average. In the series opener, the Rangers secured a 5-2 victory, highlighting the Angels’ struggles.<\/p>\n

Griffin Canning takes the mound for the Angels, bringing a 6-13 record and a 5.24 ERA<\/a>. Despite his struggles, Canning’s xERA of 4.74 suggests he’s been a bit unlucky and might be due for better performances. His last outing was uneventful, with 4 innings pitched and 4 earned runs allowed. Meanwhile, the Rangers counter with Andrew Heaney, who has a 5-14 record but a respectable 3.98 ERA<\/a>. Heaney’s last start saw him pitch 6 innings, giving up 4 earned runs.<\/p>\n

Offensively, both teams rank among the league’s worst, with the Angels’ offense sitting at 26th and the Rangers at 25th. The Angels’ Zach Neto has been their standout performer, while Marcus Semien leads the charge for the Rangers. Recently, Jack Lopez has been a bright spot for the Angels, boasting a .471 batting average over the last week, while Wyatt Langford has been hot for the Rangers, with 3 home runs and 7 RBIs in his last six games.<\/p>\n

The Rangers are favored with a moneyline of -145, reflecting an implied win probability of 57%. However, THE BAT X, the leading MLB projection system, gives the Rangers a slightly lower win probability of 53%, suggesting a closer contest than the odds imply. The Angels, with a moneyline of +125, have a 47% chance according to the projections, offering potential value for those looking at the underdog. With the game total set at 8.5 runs, expect a competitive, albeit low-stakes, showdown in Anaheim.<\/p>\n

Texas Rangers Insights<\/h3>\n
    \n
  • \n
    Andrew Heaney – Over\/Under 5.5 Strikeouts (+110\/-145)<\/strong><\/div>\n
    Despite conventional wisdom, fastballs are generally a pitcher’s least effective pitch. Andrew Heaney has relied on his off-speed and breaking pitches 6.5% more often this season (48.8%) than he did last year (42.3%).<\/div>\n
    Explain:<\/strong> A pitcher who limits has fastball usage will instead heavily use change-ups, curveballs, sliders, etc. These are far more effective pitches at preventing runs and generating strikeouts.<\/em><\/small><\/div>\n<\/li>\n
  • \n
    Leody Taveras – Over\/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-175\/+135)<\/strong><\/div>\n
    In the past week’s worth of games, Leody Taveras’s Barrel% has experienced a surge, jumping from his seasonal rate of 6.1% up to 18.2%.<\/div>\n
    Explain:<\/strong> Barrel% measures how often a player hits the ball at the optimal exit velocity and launch angle and is a terrific measure of underlying power.<\/em><\/small><\/div>\n<\/li>\n
  • \n
    <\/strong><\/div>\n
    Texas Rangers batters as a group grade out 22nd- in the majors for power this year when judging by their 7.4% Barrel%.<\/div>\n
    Explain:<\/strong> Barrel% measures how often a player hits the ball at the optimal exit velocity and launch angle and is a terrific measure of underlying power.<\/em><\/small><\/div>\n<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n

    Los Angeles Angels Insights<\/h3>\n
      \n
    • \n
      Griffin Canning – Over\/Under 4.5 Strikeouts (-110\/-120)<\/strong><\/div>\n
      Griffin Canning’s 92.8-mph velocity on his fastball this year is a notable 1.2-mph fall off from last season’s 94-mph mark.<\/div>\n
      Explain:<\/strong> Velocity is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs, so a pitcher whose velocity decreases will likely see worse results.<\/em><\/small><\/div>\n<\/li>\n
    • \n
      Niko Kavadas – Over\/Under 0.5 Total Bases (+105\/-135)<\/strong><\/div>\n
      The Texas Rangers have just 1 same-handed RP in their bullpen, so Niko Kavadas has a strong chance of never facing a bullpen mismatch all game.<\/div>\n
      Explain:<\/strong> Hitters perform worse against pitchers of the same handedness (i.e. righty-vs-righty), and being able to avoid those matchups against the bullpen boosts performance and creates hidden edge.<\/em><\/small><\/div>\n<\/li>\n
    • \n
      Kevin Pillar – Over\/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-180\/+135)<\/strong><\/div>\n
      Today, Kevin Pillar is at a disadvantage facing the league’s 10th-deepest LF fences given that he hits his flyballs to the pull field at a 36.7% rate (93rd percentile).<\/div>\n
      Explain:<\/strong> This player’s skill set does not match up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.<\/em><\/small><\/div>\n<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n

      Betting Trends<\/h3>\n
        \n
      • \n
        Over\/Under 8.5 Game Total (-105\/-115)<\/strong><\/div>\n
        The Los Angeles Angels have hit the Game Total Under in 29 of their last 53 games at home (+7.50 Units \/ 13% ROI)<\/div>\n<\/li>\n
      • \n
        Texas Rangers – Over\/Under 2.5 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total (+115\/-150)<\/strong><\/div>\n
        The Texas Rangers have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 30 of their last 45 games (+14.25 Units \/ 26% ROI)<\/div>\n<\/li>\n
      • \n
        Nate Lowe – Over\/Under 0.5 Singles (+100\/-130)<\/strong><\/div>\n
        Nate Lowe has hit the Singles Over in 19 of his last 28 games (+10.90 Units \/ 38% ROI)<\/div>\n<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n
        \n
        <\/form>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

        As the Los Angeles Angels prepare to host the Texas Rangers on September 28, 2024, neither team is in playoff contention, making this American League West matchup more about pride… <\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":89444,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[3],"tags":[309,283,286,287,289,288,284,285,223,176,30,73,143,282,281,28,609],"class_list":["post-89443","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-mlb-game-previews","tag-andrew-heaney","tag-bets","tag-betting-guide","tag-betting-line","tag-betting-odds","tag-betting-tips","tag-betting-trends","tag-expert-picks","tag-griffin-canning","tag-leody-taveras","tag-los-angeles-angels","tag-mlb","tag-nolan-schanuel","tag-odds","tag-picks","tag-texas-rangers","tag-zach-neto"],"yoast_head":"\nRangers vs Angels Picks and Betting Tips - September 28th, 2024 - WriteNow\u2122 by EV Analytics<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"Explore our expert betting tips and picks for Texas Rangers vs. Los Angeles Angels on September 28, 2024. 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