{"id":88370,"date":"2024-09-27T05:14:02","date_gmt":"2024-09-27T09:14:02","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/evanalytics.com\/articles\/uncategorized\/winning-probability-and-match-preview-for-cardinals-vs-giants-9-27-2024\/"},"modified":"2024-09-27T22:14:03","modified_gmt":"2024-09-28T02:14:03","slug":"winning-probability-and-match-preview-for-cardinals-vs-giants-9-27-2024","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/evanalytics.com\/articles\/mlb-game-previews\/winning-probability-and-match-preview-for-cardinals-vs-giants-9-27-2024\/","title":{"rendered":"Winning Probability and Match Preview for Cardinals vs Giants – 9\/27\/2024"},"content":{"rendered":"
\n
\n
\"St.<\/p>\n

St. Louis Cardinals<\/h4>\n<\/div>\n
@<\/div>\n
\"San<\/p>\n

San Francisco Giants<\/h4>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
+120<\/span>O\/U: 7.5
(-110\/-110)<\/span>-140<\/span><\/div>\n

As the San Francisco Giants gear up to host the St. Louis Cardinals on September 27, 2024, both teams find themselves in the midst of average seasons. With the Giants holding a 79-80 record and the Cardinals sitting at 81-78, this National League matchup at Oracle Park might not have playoff implications but promises to be a closely contested affair. <\/p>\n

Landen Roupp, a right-handed pitcher for the Giants, is set to make his fourth start of the season. Despite primarily serving in a bullpen role, Roupp has impressed with a 2.70 ERA<\/a>, placing him 81st in MLB starting pitcher Power Rankings, indicating he’s been above average. However, his xFIP of 4.16 suggests he may have been a bit fortunate this season. Roupp is projected to allow just 2.0 earned runs over an average of 5.0 innings, although his projected strikeout numbers (4.3) leave something to be desired.<\/p>\n

On the other side, the Cardinals will counter with right-hander Miles Mikolas. Despite a rough season reflected by his 5.35 ERA<\/a>, Mikolas\u2019 xFIP of 4.06 suggests he\u2019s been unlucky and might be due for some improvement. He’s expected to pitch 5.2 innings while allowing 2.6 earned runs. His projections also anticipate a below-average strikeout tally of 4.3.<\/p>\n

Offensively, the Giants and Cardinals have struggled. San Francisco ranks 19th in overall offense, with their batting average lagging at 20th, though they manage a middling 16th in home runs. The Cardinals rank 20th overall, with a better showing at 13th in batting average but a lackluster 22nd in homers. <\/p>\n

THE BAT X, the leading MLB projection system, sees the Giants as the slight favorite with a 60% win probability, suggesting there might be value in backing them at their current moneyline of -130. With a strong bullpen ranked 5th in MLB, the Giants could have the edge in what is projected to be a tightly contested game.<\/p>\n

St. Louis Cardinals Insights<\/h3>\n
    \n
  • \n
    Miles Mikolas – Over\/Under Pitching Outs<\/strong><\/div>\n
    The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Miles Mikolas to throw 84 pitches in this matchup (8th-least of all pitchers on the slate today), considering both his underlying tendencies and the matchup.<\/div>\n
    Explain:<\/strong> Pitchers who throw relatively few pitches are more likely to get pulled from the game earlier, record fewer outs, and generate fewer strikeouts.<\/em><\/small><\/div>\n<\/li>\n
  • \n
    Ivan Herrera – Over\/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+145\/-190)<\/strong><\/div>\n
    Ivan Herrera has been hot recently, raising his seasonal exit velocity of 89.1-mph to 94.3-mph over the past two weeks.<\/div>\n
    Explain:<\/strong> Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.<\/em><\/small><\/div>\n<\/li>\n
  • \n
    <\/strong><\/div>\n
    The 6.8% Barrel% of the St. Louis Cardinals grades them out as the #27 offense in Major League Baseball this year by this metric.<\/div>\n
    Explain:<\/strong> Barrel% measures how often a player hits the ball at the optimal exit velocity and launch angle and is a terrific measure of underlying power.<\/em><\/small><\/div>\n<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n

    San Francisco Giants Insights<\/h3>\n
      \n
    • \n
      San Francisco Giants – 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline (-135)<\/strong><\/div>\n
      Landen Roupp has been lucky this year, notching a 2.70 ERA despite the leading projection system (THE BAT) estimating his true talent level to be 4.12 \u2014 a 1.42 difference.<\/div>\n
      Explain:<\/strong> Pitchers that are overperforming should be expected to pitch worse going forward, which can create value if the lines are too heavily weighing the lucky, to-date overperformance.<\/em><\/small><\/div>\n<\/li>\n
    • \n
      Tyler Fitzgerald – Over\/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-185\/+145)<\/strong><\/div>\n
      The leading projection system (THE BAT X) estimates Tyler Fitzgerald’s true offensive ability to be a .295, suggesting that he has had positive variance on his side this year given the .066 gap between that figure and his actual .361 wOBA.<\/div>\n
      Explain:<\/strong> Players that are overperforming should be expected to play worse going forward, which can create value on prop Unders if the lines are too heavily weighing the lucky, to-date overperformance.<\/em><\/small><\/div>\n<\/li>\n
    • \n
      Heliot Ramos – Over\/Under 1.5 Total Bases (-110\/-120)<\/strong><\/div>\n
      Heliot Ramos has a 93rd percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (37.5%) and sets up very well considering he’ll be hitting them in the direction of the game’s 2nd-shallowest RF fences in today’s game.<\/div>\n
      Explain:<\/strong> This player’s skill set matches up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.<\/em><\/small><\/div>\n<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n

      Betting Trends<\/h3>\n
        \n
      • \n
        Over\/Under 7.5 Game Total (-110\/-110)<\/strong><\/div>\n
        The San Francisco Giants have hit the Game Total Under in 19 of their last 30 games at home (+8.40 Units \/ 26% ROI)<\/div>\n<\/li>\n
      • \n
        St. Louis Cardinals – Moneyline (+120)<\/strong><\/div>\n
        The St. Louis Cardinals have hit the Moneyline in 19 of their last 33 games (+6.60 Units \/ 17% ROI)<\/div>\n<\/li>\n
      • \n
        Ivan Herrera – Over\/Under 0.5 Runs (+150\/-195)<\/strong><\/div>\n
        Ivan Herrera has hit the Runs Over in 8 of his last 11 games (+7.95 Units \/ 68% ROI)<\/div>\n<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n
        \n
        <\/form>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

        As the San Francisco Giants gear up to host the St. Louis Cardinals on September 27, 2024, both teams find themselves in the midst of average seasons. With the Giants… <\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":88371,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[3],"tags":[247,250,248,251,323,241,761,242,249,243,152,73,519,246,239,240,27,253,245,17,252,410,244],"class_list":["post-88370","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-mlb-game-previews","tag-analysis","tag-game-breakdown","tag-game-forecast","tag-head-to-head","tag-heliot-ramos","tag-insights","tag-landen-roupp","tag-match","tag-match-preview","tag-matchup","tag-miles-mikolas","tag-mlb","tag-paul-goldschmidt","tag-prediction","tag-preview","tag-rankings","tag-san-francisco-giants","tag-score-prediction","tag-simulation","tag-st-louis-cardinals","tag-team-stats","tag-tyler-fitzgerald","tag-winning-probability"],"yoast_head":"\nWinning Probability and Match Preview for Cardinals vs Giants - 9\/27\/2024 - WriteNow\u2122 by EV Analytics<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"Get an in-depth game preview and prediction for St. Louis Cardinals vs. San Francisco Giants on September 27, 2024. 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