{"id":87678,"date":"2024-09-26T03:45:03","date_gmt":"2024-09-26T07:45:03","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/evanalytics.com\/articles\/uncategorized\/review-the-padres-vs-dodgers-insights-and-game-breakdown-september-26-2024\/"},"modified":"2024-09-26T22:13:02","modified_gmt":"2024-09-27T02:13:02","slug":"review-the-padres-vs-dodgers-insights-and-game-breakdown-september-26-2024","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/evanalytics.com\/articles\/mlb-game-previews\/review-the-padres-vs-dodgers-insights-and-game-breakdown-september-26-2024\/","title":{"rendered":"Review the Padres vs Dodgers Insights and Game Breakdown – September 26, 2024"},"content":{"rendered":"
\n
\n
\"San<\/p>\n

San Diego Padres<\/h4>\n<\/div>\n
@<\/div>\n
\"Los<\/p>\n

Los Angeles Dodgers<\/h4>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
-110<\/span>O\/U: 8.5
(-115\/-105)<\/span>-110<\/span><\/div>\n

In what promises to be an exciting National League West matchup, the Los Angeles Dodgers host the San Diego Padres on September 26, 2024, at Dodger Stadium. Both teams have clinched impressive records this season, with the Dodgers at 94-64 and the Padres at 91-67, setting the stage for a crucial late-season clash. With the Dodgers having secured a narrow 4-3 victory over the Padres on September 25, they look to carry that momentum into this pivotal third game of the series.<\/p>\n

The Dodgers are projected to start Walker Buehler, who has struggled this year with a 5.63<\/a> ERA. Despite this, his 4.49 xFIP suggests he’s been somewhat unlucky and may have better days ahead. On the mound for the Padres is Joe Musgrove, who has had a strong performance this season, boasting a 3.95<\/a> ERA and ranking as the 35th best starting pitcher in the MLB. Musgrove’s control could pose a challenge for the Dodgers’ patient lineup, which ranks 2nd for drawing walks.<\/p>\n

Offensively, the Dodgers hold the upper hand, ranking 2nd in MLB overall, while the Padres are not far behind in 5th. Shohei Ohtani has been a force for the Dodgers, hitting .303<\/a> with a powerful 53<\/a> home runs. Meanwhile, Jurickson Profar spearheads the Padres’ offense with a .283<\/a> average. Both teams have shown depth and skill at the plate, with the Dodgers also ranking 3rd in team home runs compared to the Padres’ 11th.<\/p>\n

The bullpens add another layer of intrigue, with San Diego’s relief corps ranking 1st, offering a slight edge over Los Angeles at 6th. According to THE BAT X, the leading MLB projection system, the Dodgers have a 54% chance to win, slightly higher than the betting market’s implied probability. This closely contested game could come down to which team’s strengths shine the brightest under the pressure of a divisional showdown.<\/p>\n

San Diego Padres Insights<\/h3>\n
    \n
  • \n
    Joe Musgrove – Over\/Under 16.5 Pitching Outs (-120\/-110)<\/strong><\/div>\n
    The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Joe Musgrove to throw 85 pitches in today’s matchup (9th-most on the slate today), considering both his underlying tendencies and the matchup.<\/div>\n
    Explain:<\/strong> Pitchers who throw a lot of pitches are more likely to go deeper into the game, record more outs, and generate more strikeouts.<\/em><\/small><\/div>\n<\/li>\n
  • \n
    Xander Bogaerts – Over\/Under 0.5 Hits (-205\/+155)<\/strong><\/div>\n
    Xander Bogaerts is penciled in 6th in the batting order in today’s game, which would be a downgrade from his 75% rate of hitting in the top-half of the batting order this season.<\/div>\n
    Explain:<\/strong> The lower in the order a player bats, the fewer plate appearances he will get and the fewer opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits lower in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting higher.<\/em><\/small><\/div>\n<\/li>\n
  • \n
    Jackson Merrill – Over\/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+100\/-130)<\/strong><\/div>\n
    Jackson Merrill hits a high percentage of his flyballs to center field (40.4% \u2014 100th percentile) and is fortunate to face the game’s 9th-shallowest CF fences in today’s game.<\/div>\n
    Explain:<\/strong> This player’s skill set matches up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.<\/em><\/small><\/div>\n<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n

    Los Angeles Dodgers Insights<\/h3>\n
      \n
    • \n
      Walker Buehler – Over\/Under 4.5 Strikeouts (+140\/-180)<\/strong><\/div>\n
      Walker Buehler has been lucky in regards to his strikeouts this year, posting an 8.06 K\/9 despite the leading projection system (THE BAT) estimating his true talent level to be 7.50 \u2014 a 0.56 K\/9 difference.<\/div>\n
      Explain:<\/strong> Pitchers that are overperforming should be expected to pitch worse going forward, which can create value on K prop Unders if the lines are too heavily weighing the lucky, to-date overperformance.<\/em><\/small><\/div>\n<\/li>\n
    • \n
      Shohei Ohtani – Over\/Under 1.5 Total Bases (-115\/-115)<\/strong><\/div>\n
      Shohei Ohtani has been hot recently, raising his seasonal exit velocity of 95.5-mph to 101.1-mph in the past week’s worth of games.<\/div>\n
      Explain:<\/strong> Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.<\/em><\/small><\/div>\n<\/li>\n
    • \n
      <\/strong><\/div>\n
      Today\u2019s version of the Dodgers projected lineup is a bit watered down, as their .349 the leading projection system (THE BAT X) wOBA is considerably below their .389 overall projected rate.<\/div>\n
      Explain:<\/strong> Betting lines are often based on seasonal team quality. If today’s lineup is watered down, however, there may be value if markets aren’t accounting for the lower quality of this offense.<\/em><\/small><\/div>\n<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n

      Betting Trends<\/h3>\n
        \n
      • \n
        Over\/Under 8.5 Game Total (-115\/-105)<\/strong><\/div>\n
        The Los Angeles Dodgers have hit the Game Total Over in 51 of their last 86 games (+16.80 Units \/ 18% ROI)<\/div>\n<\/li>\n
      • \n
        San Diego Padres – Moneyline (-110)<\/strong><\/div>\n
        The San Diego Padres have hit the Moneyline in 54 of their last 82 games (+19.30 Units \/ 17% ROI)<\/div>\n<\/li>\n
      • \n
        Shohei Ohtani – Over\/Under 0.5 Home Runs (+270\/-380)<\/strong><\/div>\n
        Shohei Ohtani has hit the Home Runs Over in 17 of his last 43 games (+19.00 Units \/ 44% ROI)<\/div>\n<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n
        \n
        <\/form>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

        In what promises to be an exciting National League West matchup, the Los Angeles Dodgers host the San Diego Padres on September 26, 2024, at Dodger Stadium. Both teams have… <\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":87679,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[3],"tags":[247,72,250,248,251,241,97,638,8,242,249,243,73,246,239,240,21,253,511,245,252,647,244],"class_list":["post-87678","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-mlb-game-previews","tag-analysis","tag-donovan-solano","tag-game-breakdown","tag-game-forecast","tag-head-to-head","tag-insights","tag-jackson-merrill","tag-joe-musgrove","tag-los-angeles-dodgers","tag-match","tag-match-preview","tag-matchup","tag-mlb","tag-prediction","tag-preview","tag-rankings","tag-san-diego-padres","tag-score-prediction","tag-shohei-ohtani","tag-simulation","tag-team-stats","tag-walker-buehler","tag-winning-probability"],"yoast_head":"\nReview the Padres vs Dodgers Insights and Game Breakdown - September 26, 2024 - WriteNow\u2122 by EV Analytics<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"Get an in-depth game preview and prediction for San Diego Padres vs. Los Angeles Dodgers on September 26, 2024. 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