{"id":87587,"date":"2024-09-26T00:46:02","date_gmt":"2024-09-26T04:46:02","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/evanalytics.com\/articles\/uncategorized\/explore-royals-vs-nationals-expert-picks-and-betting-guide-9-26-2024\/"},"modified":"2024-09-26T15:58:03","modified_gmt":"2024-09-26T19:58:03","slug":"explore-royals-vs-nationals-expert-picks-and-betting-guide-9-26-2024","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/evanalytics.com\/articles\/mlb-game-previews\/explore-royals-vs-nationals-expert-picks-and-betting-guide-9-26-2024\/","title":{"rendered":"Explore Royals vs Nationals Expert Picks and Betting Guide – 9\/26\/2024"},"content":{"rendered":"
\n
\n
\"Kansas<\/p>\n

Kansas City Royals<\/h4>\n<\/div>\n
@<\/div>\n
\"Washington<\/p>\n

Washington Nationals<\/h4>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
-180<\/span>O\/U: 8.5
(-110\/-110)<\/span>+155<\/span><\/div>\n

As the Washington Nationals take on the Kansas City Royals on September 26, 2024, at Nationals Park, the hosts find themselves struggling in the standings with a record of 69-89. Meanwhile, the Royals boast an 84-74 mark, enjoying an above-average season. This interleague matchup marks the third game in their series, with the Royals shutting out the Nationals 3-0 in their last encounter.<\/p>\n

On the mound, the Nationals will start lefty Patrick Corbin, who has endured a difficult season with a 5.58<\/a> ERA and a 6-13 record across 31 starts. Despite his struggles, his 4.08 xFIP suggests he might have been slightly unlucky. Corbin is projected to pitch 5.3 innings, allowing 3.2 earned runs on average, which could be a concern against a Royals lineup that ranks 14th in overall offensive power. Notably, Corbin\u2019s low strikeout ability may be tested against Kansas City, who strike out the 2nd least in MLB.<\/p>\n

Facing the Nationals is right-hander Michael Wacha, who has been solid with a 3.28<\/a> ERA and a 13-8 record. However, his 4.12 xFIP hints at potential regression. Wacha is expected to pitch 5.5 innings, allowing 2.3 earned runs. He might benefit from Washington\u2019s lack of power, as they have the 2nd fewest home runs this season.<\/p>\n

The Nationals’ offense ranks 23rd overall, with a notable strength in stolen bases, ranking 1st. However, their inability to capitalize on power opportunities could be a disadvantage against Wacha\u2019s flyball tendencies.<\/p>\n

Betting lines favor the Royals with a moneyline of -165, implying a 60% win probability, while THE BAT X, the leading MLB projection system, gives Kansas City a 61% chance of victory. With the Royals’ balanced offense and a reliable bullpen, they appear poised to maintain their edge and take the series in Washington.<\/p>\n

Kansas City Royals Insights<\/h3>\n
    \n
  • \n
    Michael Wacha – Over\/Under 17.5 Pitching Outs (-170\/+135)<\/strong><\/div>\n
    Michael Wacha has tallied 17.3 outs per game per started this year, grading out in the 80th percentile.<\/div>\n
    Explain:<\/strong> A pitcher who averages more outs per start than his Outs prop may be a good bet to go over, and visa-versa for the under.<\/em><\/small><\/div>\n<\/li>\n
  • \n
    Maikel Garcia – Over\/Under 0.5 Hits (-250\/+190)<\/strong><\/div>\n
    Maikel Garcia has primarily hit in the top-half of the batting order this season (73% of the time), but he is penciled in 7th on the lineup card in today’s game.<\/div>\n
    Explain:<\/strong> The lower in the order a player bats, the fewer plate appearances he will get and the fewer opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits lower in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting higher.<\/em><\/small><\/div>\n<\/li>\n
  • \n
    Bobby Witt Jr. – Over\/Under 1.5 Total Bases (-150\/+115)<\/strong><\/div>\n
    Bobby Witt Jr. has an 86th percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (35.5%) and has the good fortune of hitting them towards baseball’s 10th-shallowest RF fences in today’s matchup.<\/div>\n
    Explain:<\/strong> This player’s skill set matches up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.<\/em><\/small><\/div>\n<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n

    Washington Nationals Insights<\/h3>\n
      \n
    • \n
      Patrick Corbin – Over\/Under 3.5 Strikeouts (-160\/+125)<\/strong><\/div>\n
      Patrick Corbin’s higher utilization percentage of his secondary pitches this year (58.1% compared to 41.5% last year) figures to work in his favor consider they are generally much more effective than fastballs.<\/div>\n
      Explain:<\/strong> A pitcher who limits has fastball usage will instead heavily use change-ups, curveballs, sliders, etc. These are far more effective pitches at preventing runs and generating strikeouts.<\/em><\/small><\/div>\n<\/li>\n
    • \n
      Nasim Nunez – Over\/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-120\/-110)<\/strong><\/div>\n
      Nasim Nunez has been cold in recent games, with his seasonal exit velocity of 82.8-mph dropping to 76.1-mph over the past 14 days.<\/div>\n
      Explain:<\/strong> Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.<\/em><\/small><\/div>\n<\/li>\n
    • \n
      <\/strong><\/div>\n
      The Washington Nationals have 3 batters in their projected offense today with a high (i.e. over 27%) underlying K% (according to the leading projection system, THE BAT X) (Jose Tena, James Wood, Joey Gallo).<\/div>\n
      Explain:<\/strong> Teams that have multiple high-strikeout hitters will make it much easier for the opposing pitcher to record strikeouts <\/em><\/small><\/div>\n<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n

      Betting Trends<\/h3>\n
        \n
      • \n
        Over\/Under 8.5 Game Total (-110\/-110)<\/strong><\/div>\n
        The Washington Nationals have hit the Game Total Under in 21 of their last 33 games (+10.00 Units \/ 27% ROI)<\/div>\n<\/li>\n
      • \n
        Over\/Under 8.5 Game Total (-110\/-110)<\/strong><\/div>\n
        The Kansas City Royals have hit the Game Total Under in 23 of their last 38 games (+8.40 Units \/ 20% ROI)<\/div>\n<\/li>\n
      • \n
        Bobby Witt Jr. – Over\/Under 1.5 Hits (+115\/-150)<\/strong><\/div>\n
        Bobby Witt Jr. has hit the Hits Under in 27 of his last 36 games (+11.45 Units \/ 17% ROI)<\/div>\n<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n
        \n
        <\/form>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

        As the Washington Nationals take on the Kansas City Royals on September 26, 2024, at Nationals Park, the hosts find themselves struggling in the standings with a record of 69-89.… <\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":87588,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[3],"tags":[283,286,287,289,288,284,285,5,313,517,552,179,73,282,236,281,11],"class_list":["post-87587","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-mlb-game-previews","tag-bets","tag-betting-guide","tag-betting-line","tag-betting-odds","tag-betting-tips","tag-betting-trends","tag-expert-picks","tag-kansas-city-royals","tag-keibert-ruiz","tag-maikel-garcia","tag-michael-massey","tag-michael-wacha","tag-mlb","tag-odds","tag-patrick-corbin","tag-picks","tag-washington-nationals"],"yoast_head":"\nExplore Royals vs Nationals Expert Picks and Betting Guide - 9\/26\/2024 - WriteNow\u2122 by EV Analytics<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"Explore our expert betting tips and picks for Kansas City Royals vs. Washington Nationals on September 26, 2024. 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