{"id":86558,"date":"2024-09-25T07:00:06","date_gmt":"2024-09-25T11:00:06","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/evanalytics.com\/articles\/uncategorized\/padres-vs-dodgers-picks-and-odds-september-25-2024\/"},"modified":"2024-09-25T23:08:03","modified_gmt":"2024-09-26T03:08:03","slug":"padres-vs-dodgers-picks-and-odds-september-25-2024","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/evanalytics.com\/articles\/mlb-game-previews\/padres-vs-dodgers-picks-and-odds-september-25-2024\/","title":{"rendered":"Padres vs Dodgers Picks and Odds &#8211; September 25, 2024"},"content":{"rendered":"<div class=\"eva_article_wrap\">\n<div class=\"eva_team_logos\">\n<div class=\"eva_away_team\"><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/evanalytics.com\/images\/mlb\/SD.png\" alt=\"San Diego Padres logo\" \/><\/p>\n<h4>San Diego Padres<\/h4>\n<\/div>\n<div class=\"eva_matchup_symbol\">@<\/div>\n<div class=\"eva_home_team\"><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/evanalytics.com\/images\/mlb\/LAD.png\" alt=\"Los Angeles Dodgers logo\" \/><\/p>\n<h4>Los Angeles Dodgers<\/h4>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<div class=\"eva_odds\"><span>+115<\/span><span>O\/U: 8<br \/>(+100\/-120)<\/span><span>-140<\/span><\/div>\n<p>The Los Angeles Dodgers and the San Diego Padres are set to clash in a pivotal National League West matchup on September 25, 2024, at Dodger Stadium. With the Dodgers holding a 93-64 record and the Padres close behind at 91-66, both teams are having standout seasons. This second game of the series could have significant implications for playoff positioning, as both teams are vying for the division title.<\/p>\n<p>Yesterday, the Dodgers secured a win against the Padres, adding to their momentum. The Dodgers will send right-hander Jack Flaherty to the mound, who has been solid this season with a 13-7 record and a stellar <a href=\"https:\/\/evanalytics.com\/mlb\/player-stats\/earned-run-average\">3.10<\/a> ERA. Flaherty is the 57th-best starting pitcher, according to advanced-stat Power Rankings, and he faces a Padres lineup that ranks 1st in team batting average. The Padres, however, are known for their low strikeout rate, which might challenge Flaherty&#8217;s strength as a high-strikeout pitcher.<\/p>\n<p>On the other side, the Padres will counter with Dylan Cease. With a 14-11 record and a <a href=\"https:\/\/evanalytics.com\/mlb\/player-stats\/earned-run-average\">3.42<\/a> ERA, Cease is ranked 23rd among starting pitchers. However, his flyball tendencies could be problematic against the Dodgers&#8217; powerful offense, which ranks 3rd in home runs this season. The Dodgers&#8217; lineup is anchored by Shohei Ohtani, who has been on a tear over the last week, posting a .615 batting average with 5 home runs.<\/p>\n<p>The Dodgers&#8217; offense ranks 2nd overall, while the Padres&#8217; bullpen is the best in MLB, presenting an interesting dynamic. THE BAT X, the leading MLB projection system, gives the Dodgers a 55% win probability, slightly higher than betting markets&#8217; implied 54%. With both teams projected to score high, expect a thrilling encounter as these two titans battle for supremacy in the division.<\/p>\n<h3 style=\"margin: 3rem 0 0 0;\">San Diego Padres Insights<\/h3>\n<ul>\n<li>\n<div style=\"display: block; margin: 0.75rem 0;\"><strong>Dylan Cease &#8211; Over\/Under 5.5 Strikeouts (-135\/+105)<\/strong><\/div>\n<div style=\"display: block; margin: 0.25rem 0;\">Dylan Cease has utilized his slider 8.2% more often this year (46.8%) than he did last season (38.6%).<\/div>\n<div style=\"display: block; margin: 0.25rem 0 1.5rem;\"><small><em><strong>Explain:<\/strong> Because sliders are one of the most effective pitches to use, a pitcher who alters his pitch mix to use more of them will often see more success as a result.<\/em><\/small><\/div>\n<\/li>\n<li>\n<div style=\"display: block; margin: 0.75rem 0;\"><strong>Jake Cronenworth &#8211; Over\/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-145\/+110)<\/strong><\/div>\n<div style=\"display: block; margin: 0.25rem 0;\">The Los Angeles Dodgers have just 1 same-handed RP in their bullpen, so Jake Cronenworth has a strong chance of never losing the platoon advantage against the &#8216;pen all game.<\/div>\n<div style=\"display: block; margin: 0.25rem 0 1.5rem;\"><small><em><strong>Explain:<\/strong> Hitters perform worse against pitchers of the same handedness (i.e. righty-vs-righty), and being able to avoid those matchups against the bullpen boosts performance and creates hidden edge.<\/em><\/small><\/div>\n<\/li>\n<li>\n<div style=\"display: block; margin: 0.75rem 0;\"><strong><\/strong><\/div>\n<div style=\"display: block; margin: 0.25rem 0;\">The San Diego Padres (17.9 K% (according to the leading projection system, THE BAT X) are forecasted to have the least strikeout-prone batting order on the slate.<\/div>\n<div style=\"display: block; margin: 0.25rem 0 1.5rem;\"><small><em><strong>Explain:<\/strong> THE BAT X analyzes each player in today&#8217;s specific lineup to figure out which teams have the least inherent strikeout potential for the opposing pitcher.<\/em><\/small><\/div>\n<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<h3 style=\"margin: 3rem 0 0 0;\">Los Angeles Dodgers Insights<\/h3>\n<ul>\n<li>\n<div style=\"display: block; margin: 0.75rem 0;\"><strong>Jack Flaherty &#8211; Over\/Under 5.5 Strikeouts (+120\/-150)<\/strong><\/div>\n<div style=\"display: block; margin: 0.25rem 0;\">Jack Flaherty has put up a 13.4% Swinging Strike rate this year, grading out in the 90th percentile.<\/div>\n<div style=\"display: block; margin: 0.25rem 0 1.5rem;\"><small><em><strong>Explain:<\/strong> Swinging Strike% measures how often a pitcher gets a batter to whiff at a pitch and is regarded to be a strong indicator of strikeout ability and overall pitching talent.<\/em><\/small><\/div>\n<\/li>\n<li>\n<div style=\"display: block; margin: 0.75rem 0;\"><strong>Miguel Rojas &#8211; Over\/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-135\/+105)<\/strong><\/div>\n<div style=\"display: block; margin: 0.25rem 0;\">The leading projection system (THE BAT X) estimates Miguel Rojas&#8217;s true offensive talent to be a .284, indicating that he has been very fortunate this year given the .042 gap between that mark and his actual .326 wOBA.<\/div>\n<div style=\"display: block; margin: 0.25rem 0 1.5rem;\"><small><em><strong>Explain:<\/strong> Players that are overperforming should be expected to play worse going forward, which can create value on prop Unders if the lines are too heavily weighing the lucky, to-date overperformance.<\/em><\/small><\/div>\n<\/li>\n<li>\n<div style=\"display: block; margin: 0.75rem 0;\"><strong>Los Angeles Dodgers &#8211;  2H Moneyline<\/strong><\/div>\n<div style=\"display: block; margin: 0.25rem 0;\">According to the leading projection system (THE BAT), the Los Angeles Dodgers&#8217; bullpen ranks as the 8th-best among all teams in the majors.<\/div>\n<div style=\"display: block; margin: 0.25rem 0 1.5rem;\"><small><em><strong>Explain:<\/strong> Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a strong bullpen sneakily creates a tougher matchup for the opposing offense and suppresses a game&#8217;s runs.<\/em><\/small><\/div>\n<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<h3 style=\"margin: 3rem 0 0 0;\">Betting Trends<\/h3>\n<ul>\n<li>\n<div style=\"display: block; margin: 0.75rem 0;\"><strong>Over\/Under 8.0 Game Total (+100\/-120)<\/strong><\/div>\n<div style=\"display: block; margin: 0.25rem 0 1.5rem;\">The Los Angeles Dodgers have hit the Game Total Over in 52 of their last 88 games (+16.60 Units \/ 17% ROI)<\/div>\n<\/li>\n<li>\n<div style=\"display: block; margin: 0.75rem 0;\"><strong>San Diego Padres &#8211; Moneyline (+115)<\/strong><\/div>\n<div style=\"display: block; margin: 0.25rem 0 1.5rem;\">The San Diego Padres have hit the Moneyline in 40 of their last 56 games (+18.05 Units \/ 21% ROI)<\/div>\n<\/li>\n<li>\n<div style=\"display: block; margin: 0.75rem 0;\"><strong>Gavin Lux &#8211; Over\/Under 0.5 Hits Runs and RBIs (-165\/+130)<\/strong><\/div>\n<div style=\"display: block; margin: 0.25rem 0 1.5rem;\">Gavin Lux has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Under in 10 of his last 11 games (+9.30 Units \/ 68% ROI)<\/div>\n<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<div>\n<form><input type=\"hidden\" id=\"ga-page-group\" name=\"ga-page-group\" value=\"GAME PREVIEW\"><input type=\"hidden\" id=\"ga-sport\" name=\"ga-sport\" \"value=\"mlb\"><input type=\"hidden\" id=\"ga-title-id\" name=\"ga-title-id\"value=\"2.1.1\"><input type=\"hidden\" id=\"ga-title-group\" name=\"ga-title-group\" value=\"BETTING\"><input type=\"hidden\" id=\"ga-title-cta\" name=\"ga-title-cta\" value=\"0\"><\/form>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>The Los Angeles Dodgers and the San Diego Padres are set to clash in a pivotal National League West matchup on September 25, 2024, at Dodger Stadium. With the Dodgers&hellip; <\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":86559,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[3],"tags":[283,286,287,289,288,284,96,285,425,412,8,434,73,282,281,21],"class_list":["post-86558","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-mlb-game-previews","tag-bets","tag-betting-guide","tag-betting-line","tag-betting-odds","tag-betting-tips","tag-betting-trends","tag-dylan-cease","tag-expert-picks","tag-jack-flaherty","tag-jake-cronenworth","tag-los-angeles-dodgers","tag-miguel-rojas","tag-mlb","tag-odds","tag-picks","tag-san-diego-padres"],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v27.4 - https:\/\/yoast.com\/product\/yoast-seo-wordpress\/ -->\n<title>Padres vs Dodgers Picks and Odds - September 25, 2024 - WriteNow\u2122 by EV Analytics<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"Explore our expert betting tips and picks for San Diego Padres vs. Los Angeles Dodgers on September 25, 2024. 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