{"id":85240,"date":"2024-09-24T01:24:03","date_gmt":"2024-09-24T05:24:03","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/evanalytics.com\/articles\/uncategorized\/review-brewers-vs-pirates-betting-line-and-odds-9-24-2024\/"},"modified":"2024-09-24T18:37:03","modified_gmt":"2024-09-24T22:37:03","slug":"review-brewers-vs-pirates-betting-line-and-odds-9-24-2024","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/evanalytics.com\/articles\/mlb-game-previews\/review-brewers-vs-pirates-betting-line-and-odds-9-24-2024\/","title":{"rendered":"Review Brewers vs Pirates Betting Line and Odds – 9\/24\/2024"},"content":{"rendered":"
\n
\n
\"Milwaukee<\/p>\n

Milwaukee Brewers<\/h4>\n<\/div>\n
@<\/div>\n
\"Pittsburgh<\/p>\n

Pittsburgh Pirates<\/h4>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
-150<\/span>O\/U: 7.5
(-115\/-105)<\/span>+130<\/span><\/div>\n

The Pittsburgh Pirates host the Milwaukee Brewers on September 24, 2024, in a National League Central matchup at PNC Park. The Pirates are playing out the string, sitting at 73-83, while the Brewers, at 89-67, are having a strong season and are still in the hunt for the division title. With this being the first game of the series, both teams will look to set the tone. <\/p>\n

On the mound, the Pirates will start Bailey Falter, a left-hander who has had an up-and-down season with an 8-8 record and a 4.15<\/a> ERA. Despite these numbers being above average, his 4.69 xFIP suggests some regression might be in order. Falter is projected to struggle, with a projection of allowing 2.6 earned runs over 4.6 innings. On the other side, Tobias Myers will start for the Brewers. Myers boasts a superb 3.05<\/a> ERA, although his 4.01 xFIP indicates he may have been a bit fortunate. Despite this, Myers is expected to perform adequately, with a projection of 2.4 earned runs across 4.9 innings.<\/p>\n

Offensively, the Pirates rank 28th in MLB, struggling particularly in power categories like home runs, where they sit 26th. However, Oneil Cruz has been swinging a hot bat, with a 1.188 OPS and two homers over the last week. The Brewers, on the other hand, are a top-10 offensive squad, ranking 8th in batting average and 3rd in stolen bases. William Contreras has been a standout lately, hitting .412 with a 1.062 OPS in the past seven games.<\/p>\n

THE BAT X, the leading MLB projection system, gives the Brewers a slight edge with a projected win probability of 53%, compared to their implied win probability of 57%. This suggests a potentially tighter contest than the odds imply, with the Brewers’ offensive depth likely being a key factor. Expect a competitive game with a low total of 7.5 runs, where timely hitting and bullpen performance could make the difference.<\/p>\n

Milwaukee Brewers Insights<\/h3>\n
    \n
  • \n
    Milwaukee Brewers – Moneyline (-150)<\/strong><\/div>\n
    The Milwaukee Brewers outfield defense projects as the best among every team on the slate today.<\/div>\n
    Explain:<\/strong> Defense is an integral part of preventing hits and runs.<\/em><\/small><\/div>\n<\/li>\n
  • \n
    Brice Turang – Over\/Under 0.5 Hits (-170\/+130)<\/strong><\/div>\n
    Brice Turang has primarily hit in the top-half of the lineup this year (63% of the time), but he is penciled in 9th on the lineup card in this game.<\/div>\n
    Explain:<\/strong> The lower in the order a player bats, the fewer plate appearances he will get and the fewer opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits lower in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting higher.<\/em><\/small><\/div>\n<\/li>\n
  • \n
    <\/strong><\/div>\n
    It may be wise to expect weaker performance for the Milwaukee Brewers offense in future games, given that the leading projection system (THE BAT X) believes they are the 5th-luckiest offense in MLB this year.<\/div>\n
    Explain:<\/strong> When teams overperform their projected talent level, markets may overvalue them even while they are likely to perform worse in the near future.<\/em><\/small><\/div>\n<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n

    Pittsburgh Pirates Insights<\/h3>\n
      \n
    • \n
      Bailey Falter – Over\/Under Pitching Outs<\/strong><\/div>\n
      Compared to the average starting pitcher, Bailey Falter has been granted a shorter leash than the average pitcher this year, recording an -7.5 fewer adjusted pitches each game.<\/div>\n
      Explain:<\/strong> Pitchers with a shorter leash are more likely to get pulled earlier in games and record fewer outs.<\/em><\/small><\/div>\n<\/li>\n
    • \n
      Oneil Cruz – Over\/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+135\/-170)<\/strong><\/div>\n
      Oneil Cruz has seen a big gain in his exit velocity in recent games; just compare his 98.6-mph average in the last week to his seasonal 95.5-mph EV.<\/div>\n
      Explain:<\/strong> Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.<\/em><\/small><\/div>\n<\/li>\n
    • \n
      <\/strong><\/div>\n
      The Pittsburgh Pirates have hit 30.4% of their balls in the air 100 mph or harder this year, ranking them as the #9 team in the league by this stat.<\/div>\n
      Explain:<\/strong> To hit a home run, the ball must be hit in the air and hit hard enough to clear the fence. This metric is a strong indicator of this kind of power.<\/em><\/small><\/div>\n<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n

      Betting Trends<\/h3>\n
        \n
      • \n
        Pittsburgh Pirates – Over\/Under 1.5 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total (-130\/+100)<\/strong><\/div>\n
        The Pittsburgh Pirates have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Over in 39 of their last 69 games at home (+7.50 Units \/ 9% ROI)<\/div>\n<\/li>\n
      • \n
        Milwaukee Brewers – 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line -0.5 (-115)<\/strong><\/div>\n
        The Milwaukee Brewers have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 86 of their last 156 games (+8.85 Units \/ 5% ROI)<\/div>\n<\/li>\n
      • \n
        Bryan Reynolds – Over\/Under 1.5 Hits Runs and RBIs (-115\/-115)<\/strong><\/div>\n
        Bryan Reynolds has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Over in 12 of his last 14 games at home (+9.30 Units \/ 49% ROI)<\/div>\n<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n
        \n
        <\/form>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

        The Pittsburgh Pirates host the Milwaukee Brewers on September 24, 2024, in a National League Central matchup at PNC Park. The Pirates are playing out the string, sitting at 73-83,… <\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":85241,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[3],"tags":[56,283,286,287,289,288,284,421,285,22,73,282,131,281,9],"class_list":["post-85240","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-mlb-game-previews","tag-bailey-falter","tag-bets","tag-betting-guide","tag-betting-line","tag-betting-odds","tag-betting-tips","tag-betting-trends","tag-brice-turang","tag-expert-picks","tag-milwaukee-brewers","tag-mlb","tag-odds","tag-oneil-cruz","tag-picks","tag-pittsburgh-pirates"],"yoast_head":"\nReview Brewers vs Pirates Betting Line and Odds - 9\/24\/2024 - WriteNow\u2122 by EV Analytics<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"Explore our expert betting tips and picks for Milwaukee Brewers vs. Pittsburgh Pirates on September 24, 2024. 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