{"id":84826,"date":"2024-09-23T01:04:02","date_gmt":"2024-09-23T05:04:02","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/evanalytics.com\/articles\/uncategorized\/learn-about-player-prop-odds-breakdown-for-mariners-vs-astros-monday-september-23-2024\/"},"modified":"2024-09-23T23:58:02","modified_gmt":"2024-09-24T03:58:02","slug":"learn-about-player-prop-odds-breakdown-for-mariners-vs-astros-monday-september-23-2024","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/evanalytics.com\/articles\/mlb-game-previews\/learn-about-player-prop-odds-breakdown-for-mariners-vs-astros-monday-september-23-2024\/","title":{"rendered":"Learn About Player Prop Odds Breakdown for Mariners vs Astros &#8211; Monday September 23, 2024"},"content":{"rendered":"<div class=\"eva_article_wrap\">\n<div class=\"eva_team_logos\">\n<div class=\"eva_away_team\"><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/evanalytics.com\/images\/mlb\/SEA.png\" alt=\"Seattle Mariners logo\" \/><\/p>\n<h4>Seattle Mariners<\/h4>\n<\/div>\n<div class=\"eva_matchup_symbol\">@<\/div>\n<div class=\"eva_home_team\"><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/evanalytics.com\/images\/mlb\/HOU.png\" alt=\"Houston Astros logo\" \/><\/p>\n<h4>Houston Astros<\/h4>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<div class=\"eva_odds\"><span>+110<\/span><span>O\/U: 7.5<br \/>(-110\/-110)<\/span><span>-130<\/span><\/div>\n<p>As the Houston Astros prepare to face the Seattle Mariners on September 23, 2024, at Minute Maid Park, both teams find themselves in a crucial American League West matchup. The Astros, with an 85-71 record, are having an above-average season and are looking to solidify their playoff position. Meanwhile, the Mariners, sitting at 80-76, are having an average season and still cling to postseason hopes.<\/p>\n<p>The Astros recently dropped a high-scoring affair against the Angels, losing 9-8, while the Mariners suffered a close 6-5 defeat to the Rangers. With both teams hungry for a win, the stakes are high.<\/p>\n<p>Houston will send Hunter Brown to the mound. Brown, with a solid 3.57 ERA and ranking as the 34th-best starting pitcher according to advanced-stat Power Rankings, looks to bounce back from a previous outing where he went six innings, allowing two earned runs. Despite projections indicating he might struggle with hits and walks, Brown&#8217;s ability to limit earned runs and rack up strikeouts remains key for the Astros.<\/p>\n<p>On the other side, the Mariners will counter with Bryce Miller, who boasts a stellar 3.06 ERA but ranks lower at 60th in the same Power Rankings, suggesting a discrepancy between his performance and underlying metrics like xFIP. Projections show potential struggles with hits and walks, but Miller&#8217;s recent performance of six strong innings with eight strikeouts signals a pitcher capable of surprising.<\/p>\n<p>Offensively, the Astros hold a significant edge, ranking 9th-best in overall performance and 3rd in batting average, compared to the Mariners\u2019 22nd-best offense and 29th in average. Kyle Tucker and Julio Rodriguez have been standout performers for their respective teams recently, adding firepower to the lineup.<\/p>\n<p>With the Astros\u2019 bullpen ranking 5th compared to the Mariners\u2019 23rd, and the leading MLB projection system, THE BAT X, giving Houston a higher win probability than the betting market suggests, the Astros appear poised to leverage their strengths. For bettors, there seems to be value in backing Houston in a game poised for a tightly contested outcome.<\/p>\n<h3 style=\"margin: 3rem 0 0 0;\">Seattle Mariners Insights<\/h3>\n<ul>\n<li>\n<div style=\"display: block; margin: 0.75rem 0;\"><strong>Bryce Miller &#8211; Over\/Under 4.5 Strikeouts (-110\/-120)<\/strong><\/div>\n<div style=\"display: block; margin: 0.25rem 0;\">Bryce Miller&#8217;s higher utilization rate of his secondary pitches this season (39.8% vs. 33.9% last season) should work in his favor consider they are generally much more effective than fastballs.<\/div>\n<div style=\"display: block; margin: 0.25rem 0 1.5rem;\"><small><em><strong>Explain:<\/strong> A pitcher who limits has fastball usage will instead heavily use change-ups, curveballs, sliders, etc. These are far more effective pitches at preventing runs and generating strikeouts.<\/em><\/small><\/div>\n<\/li>\n<li>\n<div style=\"display: block; margin: 0.75rem 0;\"><strong>Julio Rodriguez &#8211; Over\/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+125\/-160)<\/strong><\/div>\n<div style=\"display: block; margin: 0.25rem 0;\">Julio Rodriguez has seen a substantial gain in his exit velocity recently; just compare his 95.6-mph average in the last 14 days to his seasonal 91.2-mph EV.<\/div>\n<div style=\"display: block; margin: 0.25rem 0 1.5rem;\"><small><em><strong>Explain:<\/strong> Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.<\/em><\/small><\/div>\n<\/li>\n<li>\n<div style=\"display: block; margin: 0.75rem 0;\"><strong>Bryce Miller &#8211; Over\/Under 4.5 Strikeouts (-110\/-120)<\/strong><\/div>\n<div style=\"display: block; margin: 0.25rem 0;\">According to the leading projection system (THE BAT), Cal Raleigh (the Mariners&#8217;s expected catcher in today&#8217;s matchup) projects as an elite pitch framer.<\/div>\n<div style=\"display: block; margin: 0.25rem 0 1.5rem;\"><small><em><strong>Explain:<\/strong> Pitch framing is a catcher&#8217;s ability to make a ball look like a strike to the umpire, &#8220;stealing&#8221; strikes for his pitcher.  This leads to more positive outcomes (like strikeouts) and fewer negative ones (like walks or earned runs).<\/em><\/small><\/div>\n<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<h3 style=\"margin: 3rem 0 0 0;\">Houston Astros Insights<\/h3>\n<ul>\n<li>\n<div style=\"display: block; margin: 0.75rem 0;\"><strong>Hunter Brown &#8211; Over\/Under 6.5 Strikeouts (-105\/-125)<\/strong><\/div>\n<div style=\"display: block; margin: 0.25rem 0;\">Out of all starting pitchers, Hunter Brown&#8217;s fastball velocity of 95.3 mph ranks in the 85th percentile this year.<\/div>\n<div style=\"display: block; margin: 0.25rem 0 1.5rem;\"><small><em><strong>Explain:<\/strong> Velocity is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs.<\/em><\/small><\/div>\n<\/li>\n<li>\n<div style=\"display: block; margin: 0.75rem 0;\"><strong>Kyle Tucker &#8211; Over\/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+125\/-160)<\/strong><\/div>\n<div style=\"display: block; margin: 0.25rem 0;\">The leading projection system (THE BAT X) estimates Kyle Tucker&#8217;s true offensive skill to be a .372, implying that he has had some very good luck this year given the .048 difference between that mark and his actual .420 wOBA.<\/div>\n<div style=\"display: block; margin: 0.25rem 0 1.5rem;\"><small><em><strong>Explain:<\/strong> Players that are overperforming should be expected to play worse going forward, which can create value on prop Unders if the lines are too heavily weighing the lucky, to-date overperformance.<\/em><\/small><\/div>\n<\/li>\n<li>\n<div style=\"display: block; margin: 0.75rem 0;\"><strong>Houston Astros &#8211;  2H Moneyline<\/strong><\/div>\n<div style=\"display: block; margin: 0.25rem 0;\">According to the leading projection system (THE BAT), the Houston Astros&#8217; bullpen projects as the 6th-best among all MLB teams.<\/div>\n<div style=\"display: block; margin: 0.25rem 0 1.5rem;\"><small><em><strong>Explain:<\/strong> Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a strong bullpen sneakily creates a tougher matchup for the opposing offense and suppresses a game&#8217;s runs.<\/em><\/small><\/div>\n<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<h3 style=\"margin: 3rem 0 0 0;\">Betting Trends<\/h3>\n<ul>\n<li>\n<div style=\"display: block; margin: 0.75rem 0;\"><strong>Over\/Under 7.5 Game Total (-110\/-110)<\/strong><\/div>\n<div style=\"display: block; margin: 0.25rem 0 1.5rem;\">The Houston Astros have hit the Game Total Under in 84 of their last 150 games (+14.25 Units \/ 9% ROI)<\/div>\n<\/li>\n<li>\n<div style=\"display: block; margin: 0.75rem 0;\"><strong>Over\/Under 7.5 Game Total (-110\/-110)<\/strong><\/div>\n<div style=\"display: block; margin: 0.25rem 0 1.5rem;\">The Seattle Mariners have hit the Game Total Over in 41 of their last 64 away games (+20.15 Units \/ 28% ROI)<\/div>\n<\/li>\n<li>\n<div style=\"display: block; margin: 0.75rem 0;\"><strong>Alex Bregman &#8211; Over\/Under 0.5 Home Runs (+510\/-900)<\/strong><\/div>\n<div style=\"display: block; margin: 0.25rem 0 1.5rem;\">Alex Bregman has hit the Home Runs Over in 4 of his last 13 games (+10.45 Units \/ 80% ROI)<\/div>\n<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<div>\n<form><input type=\"hidden\" id=\"ga-page-group\" name=\"ga-page-group\" value=\"GAME PREVIEW\"><input type=\"hidden\" id=\"ga-sport\" name=\"ga-sport\" \"value=\"mlb\"><input type=\"hidden\" id=\"ga-title-id\" name=\"ga-title-id\"value=\"4.12.2\"><input type=\"hidden\" id=\"ga-title-group\" name=\"ga-title-group\" value=\"PLAYER\"><input type=\"hidden\" id=\"ga-title-cta\" name=\"ga-title-cta\" value=\"1\"><\/form>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>As the Houston Astros prepare to face the Seattle Mariners on September 23, 2024, at Minute Maid Park, both teams find themselves in a crucial American League West matchup. The&hellip; <\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":84827,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[3],"tags":[411,29,297,736,73,231,234,230,229,227,228,225,233,232,226,4,163],"class_list":["post-84826","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-mlb-game-previews","tag-bryce-miller","tag-houston-astros","tag-hunter-brown","tag-luke-raley","tag-mlb","tag-player-analysis","tag-player-insights","tag-player-predictions","tag-player-prop-bets","tag-player-prop-odds","tag-player-prop-picks","tag-player-props","tag-player-rankings","tag-player-stats","tag-player-trends","tag-seattle-mariners","tag-yordan-alvarez"],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v27.4 - https:\/\/yoast.com\/product\/yoast-seo-wordpress\/ -->\n<title>Learn About Player Prop Odds Breakdown for Mariners vs Astros - Monday September 23, 2024 - WriteNow\u2122 by EV Analytics<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"Discover the top player props, prop odds, player picks, and prop bets for the Seattle Mariners vs. Houston Astros matchup on September 23, 2024. 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