{"id":84819,"date":"2024-09-23T00:17:02","date_gmt":"2024-09-23T04:17:02","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/evanalytics.com\/articles\/uncategorized\/find-out-the-winning-probability-and-team-stats-for-cubs-vs-phillies-match-9-23-24\/"},"modified":"2024-09-23T23:52:02","modified_gmt":"2024-09-24T03:52:02","slug":"find-out-the-winning-probability-and-team-stats-for-cubs-vs-phillies-match-9-23-24","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/evanalytics.com\/articles\/mlb-game-previews\/find-out-the-winning-probability-and-team-stats-for-cubs-vs-phillies-match-9-23-24\/","title":{"rendered":"Find Out the Winning Probability and Team Stats for Cubs vs Phillies Match – 9\/23\/24"},"content":{"rendered":"
\n
\n
\"Chicago<\/p>\n

Chicago Cubs<\/h4>\n<\/div>\n
@<\/div>\n
\"Philadelphia<\/p>\n

Philadelphia Phillies<\/h4>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
+170<\/span>O\/U: 8
(+100\/-120)<\/span>-200<\/span><\/div>\n

As the Philadelphia Phillies gear up to face the Chicago Cubs on September 23, 2024, they find themselves in the midst of an impressive season, boasting a 92-64 record and sitting comfortably with playoff aspirations. The Cubs, with an 80-76 record, find themselves hovering around the postseason bubble, yet not out of the race entirely. Yesterday, the Phillies suffered a tough 2-1 loss against the Mets, while the Cubs enjoyed a commanding 5-0 shutout victory over the Nationals.<\/p>\n

Phillies ace Aaron Nola takes the mound at Citizens Bank Park, brandishing a solid 3.54<\/a> ERA this season. His prowess was on full display in his last outing, where he pitched seven impressive innings, allowing only one earned run and striking out nine. Despite having a respectable 12-8 record, Nola\u2019s peripheral stats hint at some luck, as his FIP is slightly higher than his ERA. However, he projects to pitch efficiently today, even as he faces a Cubs lineup known for drawing walks, ranking 6th in MLB.<\/p>\n

The Cubs counter with Nate Pearson, who steps up from the bullpen. Pearson\u2019s 4.71<\/a> ERA doesn’t quite reflect his potential, as his xFIP suggests he’s been a tad unlucky this season. Yet, his projected workload for today is limited, averaging only 1.1 innings. This suggests Chicago might be banking on their bullpen to carry the load, a risky endeavor given their 25th Power Rankings position.<\/p>\n

Offensively, the Phillies rank 5th in MLB, powered by sluggers like Kyle Schwarber and hot-hitting Nick Castellanos, who has a .333 batting average and .950 OPS in his last seven games. Conversely, the Cubs\u2019 lineup, paced by Ian Happ, sits at a middling 13th ranking. Yet, players like Mike Tauchman offer promise, currently scorching with a .500 batting average over the past week.<\/p>\n

The Phillies enter as the heavy favorites, with THE BAT X, the leading MLB projection system, aligning with betting odds, signaling a 63% win probability for Philadelphia. In contrast, the Cubs are evaluated at 37%, making this a challenging matchup for them on the road. Still, with the playoff picture still potentially within reach, Chicago is unlikely to back down easily.<\/p>\n

Chicago Cubs Insights<\/h3>\n
    \n
  • \n
    Cody Bellinger – Over\/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+145\/-190)<\/strong><\/div>\n
    Cody Bellinger has made big improvements with his Barrel% lately, improving his 6.5% seasonal rate to 15.4% over the past 14 days.<\/div>\n
    Explain:<\/strong> Barrel% measures how often a player hits the ball at the optimal exit velocity and launch angle and is a terrific measure of underlying power.<\/em><\/small><\/div>\n<\/li>\n
  • \n
    Chicago Cubs – 2H Moneyline<\/strong><\/div>\n
    The Chicago Cubs bullpen profiles as the 10th-worst in Major League Baseball, per the leading projection system (THE BAT).<\/div>\n
    Explain:<\/strong> Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a weak bullpen sneakily creates an easier matchup for the opposing offense and boosts a game’s runs.<\/em><\/small><\/div>\n<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n

    Philadelphia Phillies Insights<\/h3>\n
      \n
    • \n
      Aaron Nola – Over\/Under 6.5 Strikeouts (+120\/-150)<\/strong><\/div>\n
      Aaron Nola was firing on all cylinders in his last GS and accumulated 9 strikeouts.<\/div>\n
      Explain:<\/strong> A pitcher who was strong in his last outing may be sharp once again in his next outing.<\/em><\/small><\/div>\n<\/li>\n
    • \n
      Bryce Harper – Over\/Under 1.5 Total Bases (-115\/-115)<\/strong><\/div>\n
      The Chicago Cubs have just 1 same-handed RP in their bullpen, so Bryce Harper can likely count on holding the advantage against every reliever all game.<\/div>\n
      Explain:<\/strong> Hitters perform worse against pitchers of the same handedness (i.e. righty-vs-righty), and being able to avoid those matchups against the bullpen boosts performance and creates hidden edge.<\/em><\/small><\/div>\n<\/li>\n
    • \n
      Brandon Marsh – Over\/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-160\/+125)<\/strong><\/div>\n
      Brandon Marsh has a 91st percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (37%) and has the good fortune of hitting them out towards the game’s 10th-shallowest LF fences in today’s matchup.<\/div>\n
      Explain:<\/strong> This player’s skill set matches up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.<\/em><\/small><\/div>\n<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n

      Betting Trends<\/h3>\n
        \n
      • \n
        Philadelphia Phillies – Over\/Under 2.5 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total (-105\/-125)<\/strong><\/div>\n
        The Philadelphia Phillies have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 42 of their last 66 games (+16.45 Units \/ 21% ROI)<\/div>\n<\/li>\n
      • \n
        Chicago Cubs – Moneyline (+170)<\/strong><\/div>\n
        The Chicago Cubs have hit the Moneyline in 41 of their last 69 games (+10.90 Units \/ 12% ROI)<\/div>\n<\/li>\n
      • \n
        Nico Hoerner – Over\/Under 0.5 Singles (-130\/+100)<\/strong><\/div>\n
        Nico Hoerner has hit the Singles Over in 18 of his last 23 away games (+10.60 Units \/ 30% ROI)<\/div>\n<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n
        \n
        <\/form>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

        As the Philadelphia Phillies gear up to face the Chicago Cubs on September 23, 2024, they find themselves in the midst of an impressive season, boasting a 92-64 record and… <\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":84820,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[3],"tags":[291,247,548,14,250,248,251,241,224,242,249,243,73,218,32,246,239,240,253,245,252,244],"class_list":["post-84819","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-mlb-game-previews","tag-aaron-nola","tag-analysis","tag-bryce-harper","tag-chicago-cubs","tag-game-breakdown","tag-game-forecast","tag-head-to-head","tag-insights","tag-justin-steele","tag-match","tag-match-preview","tag-matchup","tag-mlb","tag-patrick-wisdom","tag-philadelphia-phillies","tag-prediction","tag-preview","tag-rankings","tag-score-prediction","tag-simulation","tag-team-stats","tag-winning-probability"],"yoast_head":"\nFind Out the Winning Probability and Team Stats for Cubs vs Phillies Match - 9\/23\/24 - WriteNow\u2122 by EV Analytics<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"Get an in-depth game preview and prediction for Chicago Cubs vs. Philadelphia Phillies on September 23, 2024. 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