{"id":84006,"date":"2024-09-22T02:44:03","date_gmt":"2024-09-22T06:44:03","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/evanalytics.com\/articles\/uncategorized\/game-breakdown-angels-vs-astros-head-to-head-insights-9-22-2024\/"},"modified":"2024-09-22T21:13:03","modified_gmt":"2024-09-23T01:13:03","slug":"game-breakdown-angels-vs-astros-head-to-head-insights-9-22-2024","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/evanalytics.com\/articles\/mlb-game-previews\/game-breakdown-angels-vs-astros-head-to-head-insights-9-22-2024\/","title":{"rendered":"Game Breakdown: Angels vs Astros Head-to-Head Insights 9\/22\/2024"},"content":{"rendered":"
\n
\n
\"Los<\/p>\n

Los Angeles Angels<\/h4>\n<\/div>\n
@<\/div>\n
\"Houston<\/p>\n

Houston Astros<\/h4>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
+225<\/span>O\/U: 8
(-110\/-110)<\/span>-265<\/span><\/div>\n

The Houston Astros and Los Angeles Angels are set to clash at Minute Maid Park on September 22, 2024, in what promises to be an intriguing American League West matchup. The Astros, currently boasting an 85-70 record, are having an above-average season and are in the hunt for a playoff spot. In contrast, the Angels have struggled, holding a dismal 62-93 record, and have been eliminated from division contention.<\/p>\n

In yesterday’s contest, the Astros dismantled the Angels with a commanding 10-4 victory, showcasing their offensive prowess. Houston’s offense, ranked 10th overall, has been firing on all cylinders, particularly in batting average, where they rank 3rd. Yordan Alvarez has been a standout performer for the Astros, hitting .305<\/a> with 35<\/a> home runs this season. Meanwhile, Kyle Tucker has been red-hot over the past week, hitting .500 with a 1.411 OPS.<\/p>\n

On the mound, the Astros will send Spencer Arrighetti to start. Though Arrighetti has a 7-13 record and a 4.68<\/a> ERA, his 4.05 xFIP suggests he’s been somewhat unlucky this season. The Angels will counter with Griffin Canning, who has struggled with a 6-13 record and a 5.16<\/a> ERA. Despite a solid outing in his last start, Canning faces a tough task against Houston’s disciplined lineup, which ranks 3rd in strikeouts least.<\/p>\n

The Astros’ bullpen, ranked 7th, is another advantage, especially against the Angels’ 29th-ranked bullpen. With Houston being a massive betting favorite, the leading MLB projection system, THE BAT X, also sees value in the Angels, projecting a win probability 7% higher than the market suggests. The Astros’ potent offense and superior bullpen make them the favorites, but the Angels might offer sneaky value for bettors willing to take a risk.<\/p>\n

Los Angeles Angels Insights<\/h3>\n
    \n
  • \n
    Griffin Canning – Over\/Under 3.5 Strikeouts (-140\/+110)<\/strong><\/div>\n
    Griffin Canning’s fastball velocity has fallen 1.2 mph this season (92.8 mph) below where it was last season (94 mph).<\/div>\n
    Explain:<\/strong> Velocity is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs, so a pitcher whose velocity decreases will likely see worse results.<\/em><\/small><\/div>\n<\/li>\n
  • \n
    Brandon Drury – Over\/Under 0.5 Hits (-190\/+145)<\/strong><\/div>\n
    Brandon Drury is projected to hit 3rd on the lineup card today, which would be an upgrade from his 55% rate of hitting in the bottom-half of the lineup this year.<\/div>\n
    Explain:<\/strong> The higher in the order a player bats, the more plate appearances he will get and the more opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits higher in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting lower.<\/em><\/small><\/div>\n<\/li>\n
  • \n
    <\/strong><\/div>\n
    The Los Angeles Angels have 3 batters in their projected lineup today with a high (i.e. over 27%) underlying K% (per the leading projection system, THE BAT X) (Mickey Moniak, Logan O’Hoppe, Jack Lopez).<\/div>\n
    Explain:<\/strong> Teams that have multiple high-strikeout hitters will make it much easier for the opposing pitcher to record strikeouts <\/em><\/small><\/div>\n<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n

    Houston Astros Insights<\/h3>\n
      \n
    • \n
      Spencer Arrighetti – Over\/Under 17.5 Pitching Outs (-185\/+145)<\/strong><\/div>\n
      Spencer Arrighetti has averaged 93.2 adjusted pitches per GS this year, ranking in the 81st percentile.<\/div>\n
      Explain:<\/strong> Pitchers who average more pitches per game are more likely to go deeper into games and record more outs.<\/em><\/small><\/div>\n<\/li>\n
    • \n
      Houston Astros – 2H Moneyline<\/strong><\/div>\n
      The Houston Astros bullpen projects as the 6th-best in baseball, per the leading projection system (THE BAT).<\/div>\n
      Explain:<\/strong> Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a strong bullpen sneakily creates a tougher matchup for the opposing offense and suppresses a game’s runs.<\/em><\/small><\/div>\n<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n

      Betting Trends<\/h3>\n
        \n
      • \n
        Houston Astros – Run Line -1.5 (-135)<\/strong><\/div>\n
        The Houston Astros have hit the Run Line in 57 of their last 99 games (+17.85 Units \/ 15% ROI)<\/div>\n<\/li>\n
      • \n
        Over\/Under 8.0 Game Total (-110\/-110)<\/strong><\/div>\n
        The Los Angeles Angels have hit the Game Total Under in 53 of their last 101 games (+6.10 Units \/ 6% ROI)<\/div>\n<\/li>\n
      • \n
        Yordan Alvarez – Over\/Under 0.5 Singles (+120\/-155)<\/strong><\/div>\n
        Yordan Alvarez has hit the Singles Over in 16 of his last 24 games at home (+9.30 Units \/ 37% ROI)<\/div>\n<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n
        \n
        <\/form>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

        The Houston Astros and Los Angeles Angels are set to clash at Minute Maid Park on September 22, 2024, in what promises to be an intriguing American League West matchup.… <\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":84007,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[3],"tags":[247,250,248,223,251,29,241,162,386,30,242,249,243,73,246,239,240,253,245,102,252,244],"class_list":["post-84006","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-mlb-game-previews","tag-analysis","tag-game-breakdown","tag-game-forecast","tag-griffin-canning","tag-head-to-head","tag-houston-astros","tag-insights","tag-jake-meyers","tag-logan-ohoppe","tag-los-angeles-angels","tag-match","tag-match-preview","tag-matchup","tag-mlb","tag-prediction","tag-preview","tag-rankings","tag-score-prediction","tag-simulation","tag-spencer-arrighetti","tag-team-stats","tag-winning-probability"],"yoast_head":"\nGame Breakdown: Angels vs Astros Head-to-Head Insights 9\/22\/2024 - WriteNow\u2122 by EV Analytics<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"Get an in-depth game preview and prediction for Los Angeles Angels vs. Houston Astros on September 22, 2024. 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