{"id":79566,"date":"2024-09-18T06:08:03","date_gmt":"2024-09-18T10:08:03","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/evanalytics.com\/articles\/uncategorized\/blue-jays-vs-rangers-picks-and-odds-september-18-2024\/"},"modified":"2024-09-18T22:28:03","modified_gmt":"2024-09-19T02:28:03","slug":"blue-jays-vs-rangers-picks-and-odds-september-18-2024","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/evanalytics.com\/articles\/mlb-game-previews\/blue-jays-vs-rangers-picks-and-odds-september-18-2024\/","title":{"rendered":"Blue Jays vs Rangers Picks and Odds – September 18, 2024"},"content":{"rendered":"
\n
\n
\"Toronto<\/p>\n

Toronto Blue Jays<\/h4>\n<\/div>\n
@<\/div>\n
\"Texas<\/p>\n

Texas Rangers<\/h4>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
-110<\/span>O\/U: 8
(-105\/-115)<\/span>-110<\/span><\/div>\n

The Texas Rangers and Toronto Blue Jays, both sitting at 72-79 in the standings, continue their series at Globe Life Field on September 18, 2024. Both teams are having below-average seasons, with little to play for beyond pride and development for the future. The Rangers come into this matchup with a confidence boost, having secured a 13-8 victory over the Blue Jays in their last meeting.<\/p>\n

The pitching duel features Cody Bradford for the Rangers and Bowden Francis for the Blue Jays. Bradford’s performance this season has been steady, with a 3.97<\/a> ERA and a 5-3 record across 11 starts. Despite getting roughed up in his last start, Bradford ranks 109th among MLB starting pitchers, highlighting his mediocrity. On the other hand, Francis has a remarkable 3.50<\/a> ERA, though his 4.20 xFIP suggests he may have been riding a wave of good fortune. In his last outing, Francis pitched a complete game, further solidifying his value on the mound despite his bullpen origins.<\/p>\n

Offensively, the Rangers face challenges, ranking 25th in overall MLB offense this season. However, they’ve been buoyed recently by Wyatt Langford’s hot streak, with a .364 batting average and 1.300 OPS over the last week. In contrast, the Blue Jays’ offense sits at a middling 15th, with Davis Schneider showcasing a .467 batting average and 1.533 OPS in the past week.<\/p>\n

The Rangers’ bullpen is a notable asset, ranked 5th in the league, providing a significant edge against the Blue Jays’ 24th-ranked bullpen. Meanwhile, projections give the Rangers a 54% win probability, suggesting potential value for bettors. With both teams evenly matched, this game promises to be another closely contested affair.<\/p>\n

Toronto Blue Jays Insights<\/h3>\n
    \n
  • \n
    Bowden Francis – Over\/Under 5.5 Strikeouts (+125\/-160)<\/strong><\/div>\n
    Bowden Francis\u2019s fastball velocity over his last 3 games started (91 mph) has been a considerable dropoff from than his seasonal rate (92.3 mph).<\/div>\n
    Explain:<\/strong> Velocity is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs, so a pitcher who improves his velocity will likely see improved results.<\/em><\/small><\/div>\n<\/li>\n
  • \n
    Alejandro Kirk – Over\/Under 0.5 Hits (-225\/+170)<\/strong><\/div>\n
    Alejandro Kirk is projected to hit 4th in the lineup in today’s game, which would be an upgrade from his 70% rate of hitting in the bottom-half of the lineup this season.<\/div>\n
    Explain:<\/strong> The higher in the order a player bats, the more plate appearances he will get and the more opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits higher in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting lower.<\/em><\/small><\/div>\n<\/li>\n
  • \n
    <\/strong><\/div>\n
    The Toronto Blue Jays have 3 batters in their projected offense today with a high (i.e. over 27%) underlying K% (according to the leading projection system, THE BAT X) (Addison Barger, Joey Loperfido, Davis Schneider).<\/div>\n
    Explain:<\/strong> Teams that have multiple high-strikeout hitters will make it much easier for the opposing pitcher to record strikeouts <\/em><\/small><\/div>\n<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n

    Texas Rangers Insights<\/h3>\n
      \n
    • \n
      Texas Rangers – 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline (-120)<\/strong><\/div>\n
      Cody Bradford is an extreme flyball pitcher (39.5% FB% according to the leading projection system, THE BAT) and will be disadvantaged pitching in the #9 HR venue among all major league parks in this game.<\/div>\n
      Explain:<\/strong> This pitcher’s skill set does not match up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.<\/em><\/small><\/div>\n<\/li>\n
    • \n
      Jonah Heim – Over\/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-160\/+125)<\/strong><\/div>\n
      Jonah Heim’s average exit velocity has fallen off of late; his 88.4-mph seasonal EV has dropped to 80.8-mph over the past 14 days.<\/div>\n
      Explain:<\/strong> Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.<\/em><\/small><\/div>\n<\/li>\n
    • \n
      Texas Rangers – 2H Moneyline<\/strong><\/div>\n
      According to the leading projection system (THE BAT), the Texas Rangers’ bullpen ranks as the 5th-best out of all teams in the majors.<\/div>\n
      Explain:<\/strong> Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a strong bullpen sneakily creates a tougher matchup for the opposing offense and suppresses a game’s runs.<\/em><\/small><\/div>\n<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n

      Betting Trends<\/h3>\n
        \n
      • \n
        Over\/Under 8.0 Game Total (-105\/-115)<\/strong><\/div>\n
        The Texas Rangers have hit the Game Total Under in 45 of their last 76 games at home (+13.30 Units \/ 16% ROI)<\/div>\n<\/li>\n
      • \n
        Toronto Blue Jays – Run Line +1.5 (-210)<\/strong><\/div>\n
        The Toronto Blue Jays have hit the Run Line in 33 of their last 48 away games (+13.15 Units \/ 19% ROI)<\/div>\n<\/li>\n
      • \n
        Adolis Garcia – Over\/Under 1.5 Hits Runs and RBIs (-120\/-110)<\/strong><\/div>\n
        Adolis Garcia has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Under in 17 of his last 25 games (+8.20 Units \/ 29% ROI)<\/div>\n<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n
        \n
        <\/form>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

        The Texas Rangers and Toronto Blue Jays, both sitting at 72-79 in the standings, continue their series at Globe Life Field on September 18, 2024. Both teams are having below-average… <\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":79567,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[3],"tags":[283,286,287,289,288,284,622,650,670,285,295,73,282,281,28,31],"class_list":["post-79566","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-mlb-game-previews","tag-bets","tag-betting-guide","tag-betting-line","tag-betting-odds","tag-betting-tips","tag-betting-trends","tag-bowden-francis","tag-cody-bradford","tag-ernie-clement","tag-expert-picks","tag-jonah-heim","tag-mlb","tag-odds","tag-picks","tag-texas-rangers","tag-toronto-blue-jays"],"yoast_head":"\nBlue Jays vs Rangers Picks and Odds - September 18, 2024 - WriteNow\u2122 by EV Analytics<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"Explore our expert betting tips and picks for Toronto Blue Jays vs. Texas Rangers on September 18, 2024. 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