{"id":70270,"date":"2024-09-09T02:08:03","date_gmt":"2024-09-09T06:08:03","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/evanalytics.com\/articles\/uncategorized\/see-the-odds-and-betting-tips-for-mets-vs-blue-jays-september-9th-2024\/"},"modified":"2024-09-09T18:58:03","modified_gmt":"2024-09-09T22:58:03","slug":"see-the-odds-and-betting-tips-for-mets-vs-blue-jays-september-9th-2024","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/evanalytics.com\/articles\/mlb-game-previews\/see-the-odds-and-betting-tips-for-mets-vs-blue-jays-september-9th-2024\/","title":{"rendered":"See the Odds and Betting Tips for Mets vs Blue Jays – September 9th, 2024"},"content":{"rendered":"
\n
\n
\"New<\/p>\n

New York Mets<\/h4>\n<\/div>\n
@<\/div>\n
\"Toronto<\/p>\n

Toronto Blue Jays<\/h4>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
-135<\/span>O\/U: 9
(+105\/-125)<\/span>+115<\/span><\/div>\n

As the Toronto Blue Jays prepare to face the New York Mets on September 9, 2024, both teams find themselves in contrasting positions in the standings. The Blue Jays sit at 68-76, struggling through a below-average season, while the Mets boast a more favorable 78-65 record, reflecting their above-average performance. This matchup marks the first game in a series between the two teams, adding a layer of intrigue to the contest.<\/p>\n

In their most recent outings, the Blue Jays suffered a narrow 4-3 defeat against the Atlanta Braves, while the Mets fell 3-1 to the Cincinnati Reds. Notably, the Blue Jays’ Ryan Burr will take the mound, projected to pitch only 1.0 innings on average today. Burr, a right-handed pitcher, has had a rocky season, with a Win\/Loss record of 0-1 and an ERA of 4.44<\/a>. His advanced metrics suggest he has been somewhat unlucky, but the fact remains that he has not started a game this season, having made 26 appearances out of the bullpen.<\/p>\n

On the other side, Tylor Megill is set to start for the Mets. Megill has started 11 games this year, with a less than stellar 4.95<\/a> ERA and a 3-5 record. His projections indicate he will pitch about 4.9 innings, allowing an average of 2.6 earned runs, which is below average.<\/p>\n

The Blue Jays offense ranks 14th overall but struggles significantly in power categories, sitting 27th in home runs. In contrast, the Mets’ offense ranks 9th, showcasing their ability to hit for power with 132 home runs this season, the 4th most in MLB. <\/p>\n

Interestingly, the leading MLB projection system, THE BAT X, suggests the Blue Jays may be undervalued in this matchup, projecting them as favorites with a 57% win probability, despite the betting markets favoring the Mets. This could present an opportunity for savvy bettors looking to capitalize on the discrepancy. With the Game Total set at a high 9.0 runs, fans can expect an exciting battle at Rogers Centre.<\/p>\n

New York Mets Insights<\/h3>\n
    \n
  • \n
    Tylor Megill – Over\/Under 4.5 Strikeouts (-115\/-115)<\/strong><\/div>\n
    Tylor Megill has gone to his four-seam fastball 6.3% less often this season (49.4%) than he did last season (55.7%).<\/div>\n
    Explain:<\/strong> Fastballs are the one easiest pitches to hit and generate few strikeouts, so a pitcher who begins to use his fastball lessoften will likely be more effective than he used to be.<\/em><\/small><\/div>\n<\/li>\n
  • \n
    J.D. Martinez – Over\/Under 0.5 Hits (-225\/+170)<\/strong><\/div>\n
    J.D. Martinez is projected to hit 6th on the lineup card in today’s game, which would be a downgrade from his 90% rate of hitting in the top-half of the batting order this year.<\/div>\n
    Explain:<\/strong> The lower in the order a player bats, the fewer plate appearances he will get and the fewer opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits lower in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting higher.<\/em><\/small><\/div>\n<\/li>\n
  • \n
    <\/strong><\/div>\n
    New York’s 89.2-mph average exit velocity this year is one of the best in baseball: #7 overall.<\/div>\n
    Explain:<\/strong> Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.<\/em><\/small><\/div>\n<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n

    Toronto Blue Jays Insights<\/h3>\n
      \n
    • \n
      Alejandro Kirk – Over\/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+135\/-180)<\/strong><\/div>\n
      Alejandro Kirk’s average exit velocity has decreased of late; his 89.2-mph seasonal figure has dropped off to 81.1-mph over the last two weeks.<\/div>\n
      Explain:<\/strong> Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.<\/em><\/small><\/div>\n<\/li>\n
    • \n
      Vladimir Guerrero Jr – Over\/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+100\/-130)<\/strong><\/div>\n
      Vladimir Guerrero Jr. hits a lot of his flyballs to center field (38.4% \u2014 85th percentile) and is a great match for the park considering he’ll be hitting towards MLB’s 10th-shallowest CF fences in today’s matchup.<\/div>\n
      Explain:<\/strong> This player’s skill set matches up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.<\/em><\/small><\/div>\n<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n

      Betting Trends<\/h3>\n
        \n
      • \n
        Over\/Under 9.0 Game Total (+105\/-125)<\/strong><\/div>\n
        The Toronto Blue Jays have hit the Game Total Over in 37 of their last 60 games at home (+13.10 Units \/ 20% ROI)<\/div>\n<\/li>\n
      • \n
        New York Mets – 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline (-130)<\/strong><\/div>\n
        The New York Mets have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 55 of their last 105 games (+14.25 Units \/ 10% ROI)<\/div>\n<\/li>\n
      • \n
        Francisco Lindor – Over\/Under 1.5 Total Bases (-115\/-115)<\/strong><\/div>\n
        Francisco Lindor has hit the Total Bases Over in 20 of his last 30 games (+11.95 Units \/ 36% ROI)<\/div>\n<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n
        \n
        <\/form>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

        As the Toronto Blue Jays prepare to face the New York Mets on September 9, 2024, both teams find themselves in contrasting positions in the standings. The Blue Jays sit… <\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":70271,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[3],"tags":[626,283,286,287,289,288,284,285,428,205,73,33,282,599,281,31],"class_list":["post-70270","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-mlb-game-previews","tag-alejandro-kirk","tag-bets","tag-betting-guide","tag-betting-line","tag-betting-odds","tag-betting-tips","tag-betting-trends","tag-expert-picks","tag-j-d-martinez","tag-joey-loperfido","tag-mlb","tag-new-york-mets","tag-odds","tag-paul-blackburn","tag-picks","tag-toronto-blue-jays"],"yoast_head":"\nSee the Odds and Betting Tips for Mets vs Blue Jays - September 9th, 2024 - WriteNow\u2122 by EV Analytics<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"Explore our expert betting tips and picks for New York Mets vs. Toronto Blue Jays on September 9, 2024. 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