{"id":62066,"date":"2024-09-01T00:27:02","date_gmt":"2024-09-01T04:27:02","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/evanalytics.com\/articles\/uncategorized\/find-the-best-brewers-vs-reds-picks-and-odds-9-1-2024\/"},"modified":"2024-09-01T23:22:02","modified_gmt":"2024-09-02T03:22:02","slug":"find-the-best-brewers-vs-reds-picks-and-odds-9-1-2024","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/evanalytics.com\/articles\/mlb-game-previews\/find-the-best-brewers-vs-reds-picks-and-odds-9-1-2024\/","title":{"rendered":"Find the Best Brewers vs Reds Picks and Odds &#8211; 9\/1\/2024"},"content":{"rendered":"<div class=\"eva_article_wrap\">\n<div class=\"eva_team_logos\">\n<div class=\"eva_away_team\"><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/evanalytics.com\/images\/mlb\/MIL.png\" alt=\"Milwaukee Brewers logo\" \/><\/p>\n<h4>Milwaukee Brewers<\/h4>\n<\/div>\n<div class=\"eva_matchup_symbol\">@<\/div>\n<div class=\"eva_home_team\"><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/evanalytics.com\/images\/mlb\/CIN.png\" alt=\"Cincinnati Reds logo\" \/><\/p>\n<h4>Cincinnati Reds<\/h4>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<div class=\"eva_odds\"><span>-135<\/span><span>O\/U: 9.5<br \/>(-110\/-110)<\/span><span>+115<\/span><\/div>\n<p>As the Cincinnati Reds prepare to host the Milwaukee Brewers at Great American Ball Park on September 1, 2024, both teams are coming off a closely contested matchup. Yesterday, the Brewers edged out the Reds with a 5-4 victory, continuing their strong season while Cincinnati struggles to keep pace.<\/p>\n<p>Currently, the Reds hold a record of 64-73, and they find themselves well below average this season. In contrast, the Brewers boast an impressive 80-56 record, marking them as one of the top teams in the National League Central. Despite the Reds&#8217; challenges, they possess some offensive depth; they rank 1st in MLB for stolen bases and 13th in home runs, suggesting their ability to pressure defenses. However, their team batting average remains a cause for concern as they sit at 27th overall.<\/p>\n<p>On the mound, Cincinnati will send Brandon Williamson to the hill, who is coming off a solid performance where he allowed just two earned runs over six innings. Williamson&#8217;s recent effort may provide a glimmer of hope for a Reds team that has struggled with consistency. On the opposing side, Tobias Myers of the Brewers has a commendable 2.99 ERA, though his xFIP suggests he may be due for a regression. Notably, he has also shown a tendency to allow hits, averaging 5.3 per start, which could be a factor if the Reds can capitalize.<\/p>\n<p>Despite the odds favoring the Brewers with a moneyline set at -135, the projections indicate that the Reds may hold some value. The leading MLB projection system gives Cincinnati a win probability of 50%, slightly skewed against the market&#8217;s expectation. With a high Game Total of 9.5 runs, fans can expect an exhilarating matchup as both teams aim to make their mark in this pivotal series.<\/p>\n<h3 style=\"margin: 3rem 0 0 0;\">Milwaukee Brewers Insights<\/h3>\n<ul>\n<li>\n<div style=\"display: block; margin: 0.75rem 0;\"><strong>Tobias Myers &#8211; Over\/Under Pitching Outs<\/strong><\/div>\n<div style=\"display: block; margin: 0.25rem 0;\">Compared to average, Tobias Myers has been given less leash than the typical pitcher this year, recording an -8.7 fewer adjusted pitches each start.<\/div>\n<div style=\"display: block; margin: 0.25rem 0 1.5rem;\"><small><em><strong>Explain:<\/strong> Pitchers with a shorter leash are more likely to get pulled earlier in games and record fewer outs.<\/em><\/small><\/div>\n<\/li>\n<li>\n<div style=\"display: block; margin: 0.75rem 0;\"><strong>Jackson Chourio &#8211; Over\/Under 1.5 Hits (+160\/-210)<\/strong><\/div>\n<div style=\"display: block; margin: 0.25rem 0;\">Jackson Chourio has primarily hit in the back-half of the lineup this year (58% of the time), but he is projected to bat 1st in the lineup today.<\/div>\n<div style=\"display: block; margin: 0.25rem 0 1.5rem;\"><small><em><strong>Explain:<\/strong> The higher in the order a player bats, the more plate appearances he will get and the more opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market.  A player who hits higher in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting lower.<\/em><\/small><\/div>\n<\/li>\n<li>\n<div style=\"display: block; margin: 0.75rem 0;\"><strong>Jackson Chourio &#8211; Over\/Under 1.5 Total Bases (-105\/-125)<\/strong><\/div>\n<div style=\"display: block; margin: 0.25rem 0;\">Jackson Chourio hits many of his flyballs to center field (40.1% \u2014 99th percentile) and has the misfortune of hitting them in the direction of the league&#8217;s 11th-deepest CF fences in today&#8217;s matchup.<\/div>\n<div style=\"display: block; margin: 0.25rem 0 1.5rem;\"><small><em><strong>Explain:<\/strong> This player&#8217;s skill set does not match up particularly well with the park he&#8217;s in today, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.<\/em><\/small><\/div>\n<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<h3 style=\"margin: 3rem 0 0 0;\">Cincinnati Reds Insights<\/h3>\n<ul>\n<li>\n<div style=\"display: block; margin: 0.75rem 0;\"><strong>Will Benson &#8211; Over\/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-115\/-115)<\/strong><\/div>\n<div style=\"display: block; margin: 0.25rem 0;\">Will Benson has seen a sizeable increase in his exit velocity of late; just compare his 96.8-mph average in the past two weeks&#8217; worth of games to his seasonal 89.5-mph mark.<\/div>\n<div style=\"display: block; margin: 0.25rem 0 1.5rem;\"><small><em><strong>Explain:<\/strong> Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.<\/em><\/small><\/div>\n<\/li>\n<li>\n<div style=\"display: block; margin: 0.75rem 0;\"><strong><\/strong><\/div>\n<div style=\"display: block; margin: 0.25rem 0;\">Placing steepest in baseball this year, Cincinnati Reds bats collectively have notched a 16.4\u00b0 launch angle on their highest exit velocity balls (a reliable standard to study power ability).<\/div>\n<div style=\"display: block; margin: 0.25rem 0 1.5rem;\"><small><em><strong>Explain:<\/strong> If you hit the ball hard but straight at the ground, it doesn&#8217;t do you any good. A player that is skilled at lifting his hardest hit balls into the air stands the best chance of turning them into extra-base hits or home runs.<\/em><\/small><\/div>\n<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<h3 style=\"margin: 3rem 0 0 0;\">Betting Trends<\/h3>\n<ul>\n<li>\n<div style=\"display: block; margin: 0.75rem 0;\"><strong>Cincinnati Reds &#8211; Over\/Under 4.5 Team Total (-105\/-125)<\/strong><\/div>\n<div style=\"display: block; margin: 0.25rem 0 1.5rem;\">The Cincinnati Reds have hit the Team Total Under in 38 of their last 59 games at home (+14.45 Units \/ 21% ROI)<\/div>\n<\/li>\n<li>\n<div style=\"display: block; margin: 0.75rem 0;\"><strong>Over\/Under 9.5 Game Total (-110\/-110)<\/strong><\/div>\n<div style=\"display: block; margin: 0.25rem 0 1.5rem;\">The Milwaukee Brewers have hit the Game Total Over in 73 of their last 136 games (+14.55 Units \/ 10% ROI)<\/div>\n<\/li>\n<li>\n<div style=\"display: block; margin: 0.75rem 0;\"><strong>Jonathan India &#8211; Over\/Under 0.5 Singles (-125\/-105)<\/strong><\/div>\n<div style=\"display: block; margin: 0.25rem 0 1.5rem;\">Jonathan India has hit the Singles Under in 30 of his last 46 games (+12.60 Units \/ 24% ROI)<\/div>\n<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<div>\n<form><input type=\"hidden\" id=\"ga-page-group\" name=\"ga-page-group\" value=\"GAME PREVIEW\"><input type=\"hidden\" id=\"ga-sport\" name=\"ga-sport\" \"value=\"mlb\"><input type=\"hidden\" id=\"ga-title-id\" name=\"ga-title-id\"value=\"2.1.2\"><input type=\"hidden\" id=\"ga-title-group\" name=\"ga-title-group\" value=\"BETTING\"><input type=\"hidden\" id=\"ga-title-cta\" name=\"ga-title-cta\" value=\"1\"><\/form>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>As the Cincinnati Reds prepare to host the Milwaukee Brewers at Great American Ball Park on September 1, 2024, both teams are coming off a closely contested matchup. Yesterday, the&hellip; <\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":62067,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[3],"tags":[283,286,287,289,288,284,15,285,521,22,73,282,281,515],"class_list":["post-62066","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-mlb-game-previews","tag-bets","tag-betting-guide","tag-betting-line","tag-betting-odds","tag-betting-tips","tag-betting-trends","tag-cincinnati-reds","tag-expert-picks","tag-jackson-chourio","tag-milwaukee-brewers","tag-mlb","tag-odds","tag-picks","tag-tobias-myers"],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v27.5 - https:\/\/yoast.com\/product\/yoast-seo-wordpress\/ -->\n<title>Find the Best Brewers vs Reds Picks and Odds - 9\/1\/2024 - WriteNow\u2122 by EV Analytics<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"Explore our expert betting tips and picks for Milwaukee Brewers vs. Cincinnati Reds on September 1, 2024. 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