{"id":61071,"date":"2024-08-31T04:25:03","date_gmt":"2024-08-31T08:25:03","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/evanalytics.com\/articles\/uncategorized\/see-picks-and-betting-line-for-braves-vs-phillies-saturday-august-31-2024\/"},"modified":"2024-08-31T19:13:02","modified_gmt":"2024-08-31T23:13:02","slug":"see-picks-and-betting-line-for-braves-vs-phillies-saturday-august-31-2024","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/evanalytics.com\/articles\/mlb-game-previews\/see-picks-and-betting-line-for-braves-vs-phillies-saturday-august-31-2024\/","title":{"rendered":"See Picks and Betting Line for Braves vs Phillies – Saturday, August 31, 2024"},"content":{"rendered":"
\n
\n
\"Atlanta<\/p>\n

Atlanta Braves<\/h4>\n<\/div>\n
@<\/div>\n
\"Philadelphia<\/p>\n

Philadelphia Phillies<\/h4>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
+145<\/span>O\/U: 7.5
(-110\/-110)<\/span>-170<\/span><\/div>\n

As the Philadelphia Phillies prepare to host the Atlanta Braves on August 31, 2024, the stakes are high in this National League East matchup. The Phillies, currently holding a solid 79-56 record, are well-positioned for a postseason push, while the Braves sit at 74-61, fighting to stay relevant in the race. In their previous encounter, the Phillies suffered a tough 7-2 defeat to the Braves, a result that will undoubtedly weigh on their minds as they seek redemption.<\/p>\n

Philly’s ace, Zack Wheeler, who ranks as the 9th best starting pitcher in MLB according to advanced-stat Power Rankings, takes the mound. Despite his impressive 12-6 record and excellent 2.74 ERA<\/a>, Wheeler’s 3.48 xFIP suggests he may be due for a regression. He projects to pitch 6.1 innings today, allowing an average of 2.2 earned runs, which should give the Phillies a competitive edge. Wheeler’s last outing saw him allow just 2 earned runs over 6 innings, showcasing his capability to handle pressure.<\/p>\n

On the other side, Atlanta’s Max Fried, ranked 6th best in MLB, brings his own merits to the table. Fried holds an 8-7 record with a solid 3.50 ERA<\/a>, although he has the tendency to allow 1.7 walks per game, which could be costly against a potent Phillies lineup ranked 7th in MLB offensively this season. <\/p>\n

Interestingly, while the betting lines currently favor the Phillies with a moneyline of -170, projections hint at a win probability of only 55% for them, indicating potential value in betting on the Braves. The Braves offense, which ranks 13th overall, will need to step up against Wheeler to make a statement after last night’s success. With the Game Total set at a low 7.5 runs, this matchup promises to be a tight contest.<\/p>\n

Atlanta Braves Insights<\/h3>\n
    \n
  • \n
    Atlanta Braves – 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline (+135)<\/strong><\/div>\n
    Max Fried is an extreme groundball pitcher (51.8% GB% per the leading projection system, THE BAT), which should make him somewhat immune to the dangers of pitching in Citizens Bank Park \u2014 the #9 HR venue among all major league parks \u2014 today.<\/div>\n
    Explain:<\/strong> This pitcher’s skill set matches up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to better-than-expected performance.<\/em><\/small><\/div>\n<\/li>\n
  • \n
    Whit Merrifield – Over\/Under 0.5 Hits (-215\/+165)<\/strong><\/div>\n
    Whit Merrifield has primarily hit in the back-half of the lineup this year (81% of the time), but he is projected to hit 1st in the lineup in this matchup.<\/div>\n
    Explain:<\/strong> The higher in the order a player bats, the more plate appearances he will get and the more opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits higher in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting lower.<\/em><\/small><\/div>\n<\/li>\n
  • \n
    Jorge Soler – Over\/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-180\/+135)<\/strong><\/div>\n
    Jorge Soler pulls a high percentage of his flyballs (35.4% \u2014 89th percentile) and has the good fortune of hitting them towards the league’s 10th-shallowest LF fences in today’s game.<\/div>\n
    Explain:<\/strong> This player’s skill set matches up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.<\/em><\/small><\/div>\n<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n

    Philadelphia Phillies Insights<\/h3>\n
      \n
    • \n
      Zack Wheeler – Over\/Under 7.5 Strikeouts (+115\/-145)<\/strong><\/div>\n
      Zack Wheeler has relied on his change-up 7.4% more often this season (7.8%) than he did last year (0.4%).<\/div>\n
      Explain:<\/strong> Because change-ups are one of the most effective pitches to use, a pitcher who alters his pitch mix to use more of them will often see more success as a result.<\/em><\/small><\/div>\n<\/li>\n
    • \n
      J.T. Realmuto – Over\/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+150\/-195)<\/strong><\/div>\n
      J.T. Realmuto has seen a sizeable improvement in his exit velocity of late; just compare his 94.2-mph average over the last 7 days to his seasonal 88.7-mph average.<\/div>\n
      Explain:<\/strong> Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.<\/em><\/small><\/div>\n<\/li>\n
    • \n
      Philadelphia Phillies – Moneyline (-170)<\/strong><\/div>\n
      The Philadelphia Phillies projected offense projects as the 5th-strongest of all teams on the slate in terms of overall batting ability.<\/div>\n
      Explain:<\/strong> A pitcher who faces a strong opposing offense will be more likely to underperform his usual performance, particularly in terms of hits and runs, in that game.<\/em><\/small><\/div>\n<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n

      Betting Trends<\/h3>\n
        \n
      • \n
        Philadelphia Phillies – Over\/Under 2.5 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total (+125\/-160)<\/strong><\/div>\n
        The Philadelphia Phillies have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 29 of their last 43 games (+14.15 Units \/ 27% ROI)<\/div>\n<\/li>\n
      • \n
        Over\/Under 7.5 Game Total (-110\/-110)<\/strong><\/div>\n
        The Atlanta Braves have hit the Game Total Under in 77 of their last 127 games (+26.20 Units \/ 19% ROI)<\/div>\n<\/li>\n
      • \n
        Kyle Schwarber – Over\/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-150\/+115)<\/strong><\/div>\n
        Kyle Schwarber has hit the Total Bases Under in 26 of his last 39 games (+12.15 Units \/ 24% ROI)<\/div>\n<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n
        \n
        <\/form>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

        As the Philadelphia Phillies prepare to host the Atlanta Braves on August 31, 2024, the stakes are high in this National League East matchup. The Phillies, currently holding a solid… <\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":61072,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[3],"tags":[10,283,286,287,289,288,284,285,292,107,73,282,32,281,332,435,118],"class_list":["post-61071","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-mlb-game-previews","tag-atlanta-braves","tag-bets","tag-betting-guide","tag-betting-line","tag-betting-odds","tag-betting-tips","tag-betting-trends","tag-expert-picks","tag-marcell-ozuna","tag-max-fried","tag-mlb","tag-odds","tag-philadelphia-phillies","tag-picks","tag-trea-turner","tag-whit-merrifield","tag-zack-wheeler"],"yoast_head":"\nSee Picks and Betting Line for Braves vs Phillies - Saturday, August 31, 2024 - WriteNow\u2122 by EV Analytics<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"Explore our expert betting tips and picks for Atlanta Braves vs. Philadelphia Phillies on August 31, 2024. 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