{"id":520401,"date":"2026-09-17T00:13:02","date_gmt":"2026-09-17T04:13:02","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/evanalytics.com\/articles\/uncategorized\/expert-player-predictions-for-brewers-vs-pirates-thursday-september-17-2026\/"},"modified":"2026-09-17T21:30:02","modified_gmt":"2026-09-18T01:30:02","slug":"expert-player-predictions-for-brewers-vs-pirates-thursday-september-17-2026","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/evanalytics.com\/articles\/mlb-game-previews\/expert-player-predictions-for-brewers-vs-pirates-thursday-september-17-2026\/","title":{"rendered":"Expert Player Predictions for Brewers vs Pirates &#8211; Thursday, September 17, 2026"},"content":{"rendered":"<div class=\"eva_article_wrap\">\n<div class=\"eva_team_logos\">\n<div class=\"eva_away_team\"><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/evanalytics.com\/images\/mlb\/MIL.png\" alt=\"Milwaukee Brewers logo\" \/><\/p>\n<h4>Milwaukee Brewers<\/h4>\n<\/div>\n<div class=\"eva_matchup_symbol\">@<\/div>\n<div class=\"eva_home_team\"><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/evanalytics.com\/images\/mlb\/PIT.png\" alt=\"Pittsburgh Pirates logo\" \/><\/p>\n<h4>Pittsburgh Pirates<\/h4>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<div class=\"eva_odds\"><span>-135<\/span><span>O\/U: 8.5<br \/>(-120\/+100)<\/span><span>+115<\/span><\/div>\n<\/p>\n<h3 style=\"margin: 3rem 0 0 0;\">Milwaukee Brewers Insights<\/h3>\n<ul>\n<li>\n<div style=\"display: block; margin: 0.75rem 0;\"><strong>Milwaukee Brewers &#8211;  1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline (-145)<\/strong><\/div>\n<div style=\"display: block; margin: 0.25rem 0;\">Kyle Harrison is an extreme flyball pitcher (36.4% FB% according to the leading projection system, THE BAT) and has the benefit of pitching in the #26 HR venue in the league in this matchup.<\/div>\n<div style=\"display: block; margin: 0.25rem 0 1.5rem;\"><small><em><strong>Explain:<\/strong> This pitcher&#8217;s skill set matches up particularly well with the park he&#8217;s in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.<\/em><\/small><\/div>\n<\/li>\n<li>\n<div style=\"display: block; margin: 0.75rem 0;\"><strong>Luis Lara &#8211; Over\/Under 0.5 Hits (-240\/+180)<\/strong><\/div>\n<div style=\"display: block; margin: 0.25rem 0;\">Luis Lara is penciled in 2nd on the lineup card in this game, which would be an upgrade from his 88% rate of hitting in the bottom-half of the batting order this year.<\/div>\n<div style=\"display: block; margin: 0.25rem 0 1.5rem;\"><small><em><strong>Explain:<\/strong> The higher in the order a player bats, the more plate appearances he will get and the more opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market.  A player who hits higher in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting lower.<\/em><\/small><\/div>\n<\/li>\n<li>\n<div style=\"display: block; margin: 0.75rem 0;\"><strong>Brice Turang &#8211; Over\/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+125\/-165)<\/strong><\/div>\n<div style=\"display: block; margin: 0.25rem 0;\">Brice Turang has a 100th percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (43.3%) and will be challenged by the game&#8217;s 10th-deepest LF fences in today&#8217;s matchup.<\/div>\n<div style=\"display: block; margin: 0.25rem 0 1.5rem;\"><small><em><strong>Explain:<\/strong> This player&#8217;s skill set does not match up particularly well with the park he&#8217;s in today, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.<\/em><\/small><\/div>\n<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<h3 style=\"margin: 3rem 0 0 0;\">Pittsburgh Pirates Insights<\/h3>\n<ul>\n<li>\n<div style=\"display: block; margin: 0.75rem 0;\"><strong>Wilber Dotel &#8211; Over\/Under 1.5 Strikeouts (-130\/+100)<\/strong><\/div>\n<div style=\"display: block; margin: 0.25rem 0;\">Wilber Dotel has experienced some positive variance in regards to his strikeouts this year, putting up a 9.17 K\/9 despite the leading projection system (THE BAT) estimating his true talent level to be 7.70 \u2014 a 1.47 K\/9 discrepancy.<\/div>\n<div style=\"display: block; margin: 0.25rem 0 1.5rem;\"><small><em><strong>Explain:<\/strong> Pitchers that are overperforming should be expected to pitch worse going forward, which can create value on K prop Unders if the lines are too heavily weighing the lucky, to-date overperformance.<\/em><\/small><\/div>\n<\/li>\n<li>\n<div style=\"display: block; margin: 0.75rem 0;\"><strong>Jared Triolo &#8211; Over\/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-125\/-105)<\/strong><\/div>\n<div style=\"display: block; margin: 0.25rem 0;\">Jared Triolo has been cold in recent games, with his seasonal exit velocity of 86.3-mph dropping to 80-mph in the last week.<\/div>\n<div style=\"display: block; margin: 0.25rem 0 1.5rem;\"><small><em><strong>Explain:<\/strong> Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.<\/em><\/small><\/div>\n<\/li>\n<li>\n<div style=\"display: block; margin: 0.75rem 0;\"><strong><\/strong><\/div>\n<div style=\"display: block; margin: 0.25rem 0;\">Via the leading projection system (THE BAT X), the offense with the most strikeout-prone lineup on the slate today is the Pittsburgh Pirates with a 26.1% underlying K%.<\/div>\n<div style=\"display: block; margin: 0.25rem 0 1.5rem;\"><small><em><strong>Explain:<\/strong> THE BAT X analyzes each player in today&#8217;s specific lineup to figure out which teams have the most inherent strikeout potential for the opposing pitcher.<\/em><\/small><\/div>\n<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<h3 style=\"margin: 3rem 0 0 0;\">Betting Trends<\/h3>\n<ul>\n<li>\n<div style=\"display: block; margin: 0.75rem 0;\"><strong>Pittsburgh Pirates &#8211; Over\/Under 1.5 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total (-155\/+120)<\/strong><\/div>\n<div style=\"display: block; margin: 0.25rem 0 1.5rem;\">The Pittsburgh Pirates have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 25 of their last 40 games (+8.95 Units \/ 19% ROI)<\/div>\n<\/li>\n<li>\n<div style=\"display: block; margin: 0.75rem 0;\"><strong>Milwaukee Brewers &#8211; 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline (-145)<\/strong><\/div>\n<div style=\"display: block; margin: 0.25rem 0 1.5rem;\">The Milwaukee Brewers have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 24 of their last 40 games (+13.15 Units \/ 21% ROI)<\/div>\n<\/li>\n<li>\n<div style=\"display: block; margin: 0.75rem 0;\"><strong>Joey Ortiz &#8211; Over\/Under 0.5 Hits (-205\/+160)<\/strong><\/div>\n<div style=\"display: block; margin: 0.25rem 0 1.5rem;\">Joey Ortiz has hit the Hits Over in 21 of his last 25 games (+14.75 Units \/ 36% ROI)<\/div>\n<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<div>\n<form><input type=\"hidden\" id=\"ga-page-group\" name=\"ga-page-group\" value=\"GAME PREVIEW\"><input type=\"hidden\" id=\"ga-sport\" name=\"ga-sport\" \"value=\"mlb\"><input type=\"hidden\" id=\"ga-title-id\" name=\"ga-title-id\"value=\"4.15.1\"><input type=\"hidden\" id=\"ga-title-group\" name=\"ga-title-group\" value=\"PLAYER\"><input type=\"hidden\" id=\"ga-title-cta\" name=\"ga-title-cta\" value=\"0\"><\/form>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Milwaukee Brewers @ Pittsburgh Pirates -135O\/U: 8.5(-120\/+100)+115 Milwaukee Brewers Insights Milwaukee Brewers &#8211; 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline (-145) Kyle Harrison is an extreme flyball pitcher (36.4% FB% according to&hellip; <\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":520402,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[3],"tags":[105,22,73,9,231,234,230,229,227,228,225,233,232,226],"class_list":["post-520401","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-mlb-game-previews","tag-kyle-harrison","tag-milwaukee-brewers","tag-mlb","tag-pittsburgh-pirates","tag-player-analysis","tag-player-insights","tag-player-predictions","tag-player-prop-bets","tag-player-prop-odds","tag-player-prop-picks","tag-player-props","tag-player-rankings","tag-player-stats","tag-player-trends"],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v28.8 - https:\/\/yoast.com\/product\/yoast-seo-wordpress\/ -->\n<title>Expert Player Predictions for Brewers vs Pirates - Thursday, September 17, 2026 - WriteNow\u2122 by EV Analytics<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"Discover the top player props, prop odds, player picks, and prop bets for the Milwaukee Brewers vs. Pittsburgh Pirates matchup on September 17, 2026. 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