{"id":508525,"date":"2026-09-06T03:22:03","date_gmt":"2026-09-06T07:22:03","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/evanalytics.com\/articles\/uncategorized\/d-backs-vs-astros-betting-guide-9-06-26\/"},"modified":"2026-09-06T18:22:03","modified_gmt":"2026-09-06T22:22:03","slug":"d-backs-vs-astros-betting-guide-9-06-26","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/evanalytics.com\/articles\/mlb-game-previews\/d-backs-vs-astros-betting-guide-9-06-26\/","title":{"rendered":"D-Backs vs Astros Betting Guide – 9\/06\/26"},"content":{"rendered":"
\n
\n
\"Arizona<\/p>\n

Arizona Diamondbacks<\/h4>\n<\/div>\n
@<\/div>\n
\"Houston<\/p>\n

Houston Astros<\/h4>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
+100<\/span>O\/U: 8
(-110\/-110)<\/span>-120<\/span><\/div>\n<\/p>\n

Arizona Diamondbacks Insights<\/h3>\n
    \n
  • \n
    Eduardo Rodriguez – Over\/Under 17.5 Pitching Outs (-150\/+115)<\/strong><\/div>\n
    Compared to average, Eduardo Rodriguez has been granted a longer leash than the average pitcher this year, throwing an additional 6.2 adjusted pitches each game.<\/div>\n
    Explain:<\/strong> Pitchers with a longer leash are more likely to go deeper into games and record more outs.<\/em><\/small><\/div>\n<\/li>\n
  • \n
    Nolan Arenado – Over\/Under 0.5 Hits (-170\/+130)<\/strong><\/div>\n
    Nolan Arenado has primarily hit in the back-half of the lineup this year (52% of the time), but he is projected to hit 4th on the lineup card in this game.<\/div>\n
    Explain:<\/strong> The higher in the order a player bats, the more plate appearances he will get and the more opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits higher in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting lower.<\/em><\/small><\/div>\n<\/li>\n
  • \n
    Nolan Arenado – Over\/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-165\/+130)<\/strong><\/div>\n
    Nolan Arenado pulls a high percentage of his flyballs (42.5% \u2014 99th percentile) and sets up very well considering he’ll be hitting them towards the game’s 2nd-shallowest LF fences today.<\/div>\n
    Explain:<\/strong> This player’s skill set matches up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.<\/em><\/small><\/div>\n<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n

    Houston Astros Insights<\/h3>\n
      \n
    • \n
      Peter Lambert – Over\/Under 4.5 Strikeouts (-115\/-115)<\/strong><\/div>\n
      Despite conventional wisdom, fastballs are generally a pitcher’s least effective pitch. Peter Lambert must realize this, because he has used his secondary offerings a lot this year: 60% of the time, checking in at the 80th percentile.<\/div>\n
      Explain:<\/strong> A pitcher who limits has fastball usage will instead heavily use change-ups, curveballs, sliders, etc. These are far more effective pitches at preventing runs and generating strikeouts.<\/em><\/small><\/div>\n<\/li>\n
    • \n
      Daulton Varsho – Over\/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-160\/+125)<\/strong><\/div>\n
      Daulton Varsho’s average exit velocity has decreased recently; his 86.7-mph seasonal EV has dropped to 78.4-mph over the past 7 days.<\/div>\n
      Explain:<\/strong> Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.<\/em><\/small><\/div>\n<\/li>\n
    • \n
      Houston Astros – Moneyline (-120)<\/strong><\/div>\n
      The Houston Astros projected batting order profiles as the 5th-strongest of all teams on the slate today in terms of overall batting skill.<\/div>\n
      Explain:<\/strong> A pitcher who faces a strong opposing offense will be more likely to underperform his usual performance, particularly in terms of hits and runs, in that game.<\/em><\/small><\/div>\n<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n

      Betting Trends<\/h3>\n
        \n
      • \n
        Over\/Under 8.0 Game Total (-110\/-110)<\/strong><\/div>\n
        The Houston Astros have hit the Game Total Under in 10 of their last 14 games at home (+5.65 Units \/ 37% ROI)<\/div>\n<\/li>\n
      • \n
        Over\/Under 8.0 Game Total (-110\/-110)<\/strong><\/div>\n
        The Arizona Diamondbacks have hit the Game Total Under in 29 of their last 45 away games (+11.65 Units \/ 24% ROI)<\/div>\n<\/li>\n
      • \n
        Gabriel Moreno – Over\/Under 0.5 Home Runs (+560\/-1000)<\/strong><\/div>\n
        Gabriel Moreno has hit the Home Runs Over in 4 of his last 9 away games (+26.10 Units \/ 290% ROI)<\/div>\n<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n
        \n
        <\/form>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

        Arizona Diamondbacks @ Houston Astros +100O\/U: 8(-110\/-110)-120 Arizona Diamondbacks Insights Eduardo Rodriguez – Over\/Under 17.5 Pitching Outs (-150\/+115) Compared to average, Eduardo Rodriguez has been granted a longer leash than… <\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":508526,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[3],"tags":[20,283,286,287,289,288,284,610,285,29,498,300,73,282,281],"class_list":["post-508525","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-mlb-game-previews","tag-arizona-diamondbacks","tag-bets","tag-betting-guide","tag-betting-line","tag-betting-odds","tag-betting-tips","tag-betting-trends","tag-eduardo-rodriguez","tag-expert-picks","tag-houston-astros","tag-lars-nootbaar","tag-max-kepler","tag-mlb","tag-odds","tag-picks"],"yoast_head":"\nD-Backs vs Astros Betting Guide - 9\/06\/26 - WriteNow\u2122 by EV Analytics<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"Explore our expert betting tips and picks for Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Houston Astros on September 6, 2026. 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