{"id":492747,"date":"2026-08-23T05:58:05","date_gmt":"2026-08-23T09:58:05","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/evanalytics.com\/articles\/uncategorized\/twins-vs-padres-picks-and-odds-august-23-2026\/"},"modified":"2026-08-23T16:22:04","modified_gmt":"2026-08-23T20:22:04","slug":"twins-vs-padres-picks-and-odds-august-23-2026","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/evanalytics.com\/articles\/mlb-game-previews\/twins-vs-padres-picks-and-odds-august-23-2026\/","title":{"rendered":"Twins vs Padres Picks and Odds &#8211; August 23, 2026"},"content":{"rendered":"<div class=\"eva_article_wrap\">\n<div class=\"eva_team_logos\">\n<div class=\"eva_away_team\"><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/evanalytics.com\/images\/mlb\/MIN.png\" alt=\"Minnesota Twins logo\" \/><\/p>\n<h4>Minnesota Twins<\/h4>\n<\/div>\n<div class=\"eva_matchup_symbol\">@<\/div>\n<div class=\"eva_home_team\"><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/evanalytics.com\/images\/mlb\/SD.png\" alt=\"San Diego Padres logo\" \/><\/p>\n<h4>San Diego Padres<\/h4>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<div class=\"eva_odds\"><span>+135<\/span><span>O\/U: 8.5<br \/>(-120\/+100)<\/span><span>-155<\/span><\/div>\n<\/p>\n<h3 style=\"margin: 3rem 0 0 0;\">Minnesota Twins Insights<\/h3>\n<ul>\n<li>\n<div style=\"display: block; margin: 0.75rem 0;\"><strong>Bailey Ober &#8211; Over\/Under 3.5 Strikeouts (-105\/-125)<\/strong><\/div>\n<div style=\"display: block; margin: 0.25rem 0;\">Considering that flyball hitters have a substantial advantage over groundball pitchers, Bailey Ober and his 43.7% underlying GB% (according to the leading projection system, THE BAT) finds himself in a tough spot in today&#8217;s matchup being matched up with 3 opposing GB hitters.<\/div>\n<div style=\"display: block; margin: 0.25rem 0 1.5rem;\"><small><em><strong>Explain:<\/strong> This mostly has to do with the way the hitter&#8217;s swing plane interacts with the pitch trajectory, and it can create diminished performance across all categories and hidden value few are considering.<\/em><\/small><\/div>\n<\/li>\n<li>\n<div style=\"display: block; margin: 0.75rem 0;\"><strong>Byron Buxton &#8211; Over\/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+105\/-135)<\/strong><\/div>\n<div style=\"display: block; margin: 0.25rem 0;\">Byron Buxton&#8217;s exit velocity on flyballs has dropped off this season; his 96.9-mph average last season has fallen to 94.5-mph.<\/div>\n<div style=\"display: block; margin: 0.25rem 0 1.5rem;\"><small><em><strong>Explain:<\/strong> Most home runs are flyballs, and the harder those flyballs are hit, the more often they turn into home runs.  This is a strong indicator of power.<\/em><\/small><\/div>\n<\/li>\n<li>\n<div style=\"display: block; margin: 0.75rem 0;\"><strong><\/strong><\/div>\n<div style=\"display: block; margin: 0.25rem 0;\">The maximum exit velocity of any player on the Minnesota Twins has been 113.7 mph this year, putting them as the #25 team in baseball by this stat.<\/div>\n<div style=\"display: block; margin: 0.25rem 0 1.5rem;\"><small><em><strong>Explain:<\/strong> If a player can hit the ball hard even once, it has great predictive power over his ability to do it again.  If he&#8217;s never hit the ball hard, it&#8217;s a sign of a lack of power.<\/em><\/small><\/div>\n<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<h3 style=\"margin: 3rem 0 0 0;\">San Diego Padres Insights<\/h3>\n<ul>\n<li>\n<div style=\"display: block; margin: 0.75rem 0;\"><strong>Walker Buehler &#8211; Over\/Under 3.5 Strikeouts (-150\/+115)<\/strong><\/div>\n<div style=\"display: block; margin: 0.25rem 0;\">Walker Buehler has used his cutter 7.9% more often this season (25.1%) than he did last year (17.2%).<\/div>\n<div style=\"display: block; margin: 0.25rem 0 1.5rem;\"><small><em><strong>Explain:<\/strong> Because cutters are one of the most effective pitches to use, a pitcher who alters his pitch mix to use more of them will often see more success as a result.<\/em><\/small><\/div>\n<\/li>\n<li>\n<div style=\"display: block; margin: 0.75rem 0;\"><strong>Xander Bogaerts &#8211; Over\/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-155\/+120)<\/strong><\/div>\n<div style=\"display: block; margin: 0.25rem 0;\">Batters such as Xander Bogaerts with extreme flyball tendencies are usually more effective when facing pitchers like Bailey Ober who skew towards the groundball end of the spectrum.<\/div>\n<div style=\"display: block; margin: 0.25rem 0 1.5rem;\"><small><em><strong>Explain:<\/strong> This mostly has to do with the way the hitter&#8217;s swing plane interacts with the pitch trajectory, and it can create boosted performance across all categories and hidden value few are considering.<\/em><\/small><\/div>\n<\/li>\n<li>\n<div style=\"display: block; margin: 0.75rem 0;\"><strong>Fernando Tatis Jr. &#8211; Over\/Under 1.5 Total Bases (-125\/-105)<\/strong><\/div>\n<div style=\"display: block; margin: 0.25rem 0;\">Fernando Tatis Jr. hits many of his flyballs to center field (40% \u2014 98th percentile) and will have a big advantage facing baseball&#8217;s 2nd-shallowest CF fences today.<\/div>\n<div style=\"display: block; margin: 0.25rem 0 1.5rem;\"><small><em><strong>Explain:<\/strong> This player&#8217;s skill set matches up particularly well with the park he&#8217;s in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.<\/em><\/small><\/div>\n<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<h3 style=\"margin: 3rem 0 0 0;\">Betting Trends<\/h3>\n<ul>\n<li>\n<div style=\"display: block; margin: 0.75rem 0;\"><strong>San Diego Padres &#8211; Moneyline (-155)<\/strong><\/div>\n<div style=\"display: block; margin: 0.25rem 0 1.5rem;\">The San Diego Padres have hit the Moneyline in 26 of their last 40 games (+10.10 Units \/ 21% ROI)<\/div>\n<\/li>\n<li>\n<div style=\"display: block; margin: 0.75rem 0;\"><strong>Minnesota Twins &#8211; Over\/Under 3.5 Team Total (-140\/+110)<\/strong><\/div>\n<div style=\"display: block; margin: 0.25rem 0 1.5rem;\">The Minnesota Twins have hit the Team Total Over in 28 of their last 50 away games (+3.15 Units \/ 5% ROI)<\/div>\n<\/li>\n<li>\n<div style=\"display: block; margin: 0.75rem 0;\"><strong>Gavin Sheets &#8211; Over\/Under 0.5 Hits (-145\/+115)<\/strong><\/div>\n<div style=\"display: block; margin: 0.25rem 0 1.5rem;\">Gavin Sheets has hit the Hits Under in 16 of his last 25 games (+10.95 Units \/ 43% ROI)<\/div>\n<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<div>\n<form><input type=\"hidden\" id=\"ga-page-group\" name=\"ga-page-group\" value=\"GAME PREVIEW\"><input type=\"hidden\" id=\"ga-sport\" name=\"ga-sport\" \"value=\"mlb\"><input type=\"hidden\" id=\"ga-title-id\" name=\"ga-title-id\"value=\"2.1.1\"><input type=\"hidden\" id=\"ga-title-group\" name=\"ga-title-group\" value=\"BETTING\"><input type=\"hidden\" id=\"ga-title-cta\" name=\"ga-title-cta\" value=\"0\"><\/form>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Minnesota Twins @ San Diego Padres +135O\/U: 8.5(-120\/+100)-155 Minnesota Twins Insights Bailey Ober &#8211; Over\/Under 3.5 Strikeouts (-105\/-125) Considering that flyball hitters have a substantial advantage over groundball pitchers, Bailey&hellip; <\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":492748,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[3],"tags":[398,283,286,287,289,288,284,285,770,12,73,282,281,21,488],"class_list":["post-492747","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-mlb-game-previews","tag-bailey-ober","tag-bets","tag-betting-guide","tag-betting-line","tag-betting-odds","tag-betting-tips","tag-betting-trends","tag-expert-picks","tag-fernando-tatis-jr","tag-minnesota-twins","tag-mlb","tag-odds","tag-picks","tag-san-diego-padres","tag-xander-bogaerts"],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v28.4 - https:\/\/yoast.com\/product\/yoast-seo-wordpress\/ -->\n<title>Twins vs Padres Picks and Odds - August 23, 2026 - WriteNow\u2122 by EV Analytics<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"Explore our expert betting tips and picks for Minnesota Twins vs. San Diego Padres on August 23, 2026. 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