{"id":458952,"date":"2026-07-28T01:43:04","date_gmt":"2026-07-28T05:43:04","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/evanalytics.com\/articles\/uncategorized\/find-the-best-blue-jays-vs-nationals-picks-and-odds-7-28-2026\/"},"modified":"2026-07-28T20:17:03","modified_gmt":"2026-07-29T00:17:03","slug":"find-the-best-blue-jays-vs-nationals-picks-and-odds-7-28-2026","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/evanalytics.com\/articles\/mlb-game-previews\/find-the-best-blue-jays-vs-nationals-picks-and-odds-7-28-2026\/","title":{"rendered":"Find the Best Blue Jays vs Nationals Picks and Odds &#8211; 7\/28\/2026"},"content":{"rendered":"<div class=\"eva_article_wrap\">\n<div class=\"eva_team_logos\">\n<div class=\"eva_away_team\"><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/evanalytics.com\/images\/mlb\/TOR.png\" alt=\"Toronto Blue Jays logo\" \/><\/p>\n<h4>Toronto Blue Jays<\/h4>\n<\/div>\n<div class=\"eva_matchup_symbol\">@<\/div>\n<div class=\"eva_home_team\"><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/evanalytics.com\/images\/mlb\/WSH.png\" alt=\"Washington Nationals logo\" \/><\/p>\n<h4>Washington Nationals<\/h4>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<div class=\"eva_odds\"><span>+120<\/span><span>O\/U: 9<br \/>(+100\/-120)<\/span><span>-140<\/span><\/div>\n<\/p>\n<h3 style=\"margin: 3rem 0 0 0;\">Toronto Blue Jays Insights<\/h3>\n<ul>\n<li>\n<div style=\"display: block; margin: 0.75rem 0;\"><strong>Shane Bieber &#8211; Over\/Under Pitching Outs<\/strong><\/div>\n<div style=\"display: block; margin: 0.25rem 0;\">Shane Bieber projects to average 16.4 outs in this outing, as forecasted by the leading projection system (THE BAT X).<\/div>\n<div style=\"display: block; margin: 0.25rem 0 1.5rem;\"><small><em><strong>Explain:<\/strong> THE BAT X is a highly sophisticated projection system that accounts for a multitude of factors like ballpark, weather, umpire, defense, and more.<\/em><\/small><\/div>\n<\/li>\n<li>\n<div style=\"display: block; margin: 0.75rem 0;\"><strong>Yohendrick Pinango &#8211; Over\/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+145\/-185)<\/strong><\/div>\n<div style=\"display: block; margin: 0.25rem 0;\">Yohendrick Pinango has seen a significant gain in his exit velocity recently; just compare his 96.3-mph average in the last week&#8217;s worth of games to his seasonal 90.8-mph mark.<\/div>\n<div style=\"display: block; margin: 0.25rem 0 1.5rem;\"><small><em><strong>Explain:<\/strong> Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.<\/em><\/small><\/div>\n<\/li>\n<li>\n<div style=\"display: block; margin: 0.75rem 0;\"><strong><\/strong><\/div>\n<div style=\"display: block; margin: 0.25rem 0;\">The 6.4% Barrel% of the Toronto Blue Jays makes them the #29 team in baseball this year by this metric.<\/div>\n<div style=\"display: block; margin: 0.25rem 0 1.5rem;\"><small><em><strong>Explain:<\/strong> Barrel% measures how often a player hits the ball at the optimal exit velocity and launch angle and is a terrific measure of underlying power.<\/em><\/small><\/div>\n<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<h3 style=\"margin: 3rem 0 0 0;\">Washington Nationals Insights<\/h3>\n<ul>\n<li>\n<div style=\"display: block; margin: 0.75rem 0;\"><strong>Cade Cavalli &#8211; Over\/Under 4.5 Strikeouts (-105\/-125)<\/strong><\/div>\n<div style=\"display: block; margin: 0.25rem 0;\">Cade Cavalli has been lucky in regards to his strikeouts this year, posting a 10.33 K\/9 despite the leading projection system (THE BAT) estimating his true talent level to be 9.45 \u2014 a 0.88 K\/9 discrepancy.<\/div>\n<div style=\"display: block; margin: 0.25rem 0 1.5rem;\"><small><em><strong>Explain:<\/strong> Pitchers that are overperforming should be expected to pitch worse going forward, which can create value on K prop Unders if the lines are too heavily weighing the lucky, to-date overperformance.<\/em><\/small><\/div>\n<\/li>\n<li>\n<div style=\"display: block; margin: 0.75rem 0;\"><strong>CJ Abrams &#8211; Over\/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+105\/-135)<\/strong><\/div>\n<div style=\"display: block; margin: 0.25rem 0;\">The leading projection system (THE BAT X) estimates CJ Abrams&#8217;s true offensive talent to be a .338, indicating that he has had positive variance on his side this year given the .057 discrepancy between that mark and his actual .395 wOBA.<\/div>\n<div style=\"display: block; margin: 0.25rem 0 1.5rem;\"><small><em><strong>Explain:<\/strong> Players that are overperforming should be expected to play worse going forward, which can create value on prop Unders if the lines are too heavily weighing the lucky, to-date overperformance.<\/em><\/small><\/div>\n<\/li>\n<li>\n<div style=\"display: block; margin: 0.75rem 0;\"><strong>CJ Abrams &#8211; Over\/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+105\/-135)<\/strong><\/div>\n<div style=\"display: block; margin: 0.25rem 0;\">CJ Abrams pulls a high percentage of his flyballs (35.5% \u2014 85th percentile) and is a great match for the park considering he&#8217;ll be hitting them towards the league&#8217;s 10th-shallowest RF fences in today&#8217;s matchup.<\/div>\n<div style=\"display: block; margin: 0.25rem 0 1.5rem;\"><small><em><strong>Explain:<\/strong> This player&#8217;s skill set matches up particularly well with the park he&#8217;s in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.<\/em><\/small><\/div>\n<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<h3 style=\"margin: 3rem 0 0 0;\">Betting Trends<\/h3>\n<ul>\n<li>\n<div style=\"display: block; margin: 0.75rem 0;\"><strong>Washington Nationals &#8211; 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line -0.5 (-120)<\/strong><\/div>\n<div style=\"display: block; margin: 0.25rem 0 1.5rem;\">The Washington Nationals have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 27 of their last 45 games at home (+6.05 Units \/ 11% ROI)<\/div>\n<\/li>\n<li>\n<div style=\"display: block; margin: 0.75rem 0;\"><strong>Toronto Blue Jays &#8211; Over\/Under 3.5 Team Total (-145\/+115)<\/strong><\/div>\n<div style=\"display: block; margin: 0.25rem 0 1.5rem;\">The Toronto Blue Jays have hit the Team Total Under in 14 of their last 19 games (+9.05 Units \/ 42% ROI)<\/div>\n<\/li>\n<li>\n<div style=\"display: block; margin: 0.75rem 0;\"><strong>Dylan Crews &#8211; Over\/Under 0.5 Runs (+110\/-140)<\/strong><\/div>\n<div style=\"display: block; margin: 0.25rem 0 1.5rem;\">Dylan Crews has hit the Runs Over in 15 of his last 25 games at home (+9.05 Units \/ 36% ROI)<\/div>\n<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<div>\n<form><input type=\"hidden\" id=\"ga-page-group\" name=\"ga-page-group\" value=\"GAME PREVIEW\"><input type=\"hidden\" id=\"ga-sport\" name=\"ga-sport\" \"value=\"mlb\"><input type=\"hidden\" id=\"ga-title-id\" name=\"ga-title-id\"value=\"2.1.2\"><input type=\"hidden\" id=\"ga-title-group\" name=\"ga-title-group\" value=\"BETTING\"><input type=\"hidden\" id=\"ga-title-cta\" name=\"ga-title-cta\" value=\"1\"><\/form>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Toronto Blue Jays @ Washington Nationals +120O\/U: 9(+100\/-120)-140 Toronto Blue Jays Insights Shane Bieber &#8211; Over\/Under Pitching Outs Shane Bieber projects to average 16.4 outs in this outing, as forecasted&hellip; <\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":458953,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[3],"tags":[283,286,287,289,288,284,987,159,670,285,73,282,281,1013,31,11],"class_list":["post-458952","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-mlb-game-previews","tag-bets","tag-betting-guide","tag-betting-line","tag-betting-odds","tag-betting-tips","tag-betting-trends","tag-cade-cavalli","tag-cj-abrams","tag-ernie-clement","tag-expert-picks","tag-mlb","tag-odds","tag-picks","tag-shane-bieber","tag-toronto-blue-jays","tag-washington-nationals"],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v28.2 - https:\/\/yoast.com\/product\/yoast-seo-wordpress\/ -->\n<title>Find the Best Blue Jays vs Nationals Picks and Odds - 7\/28\/2026 - WriteNow\u2122 by EV Analytics<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"Explore our expert betting tips and picks for Toronto Blue Jays vs. Washington Nationals on July 28, 2026. 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