{"id":446819,"date":"2026-07-18T04:19:05","date_gmt":"2026-07-18T08:19:05","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/evanalytics.com\/articles\/uncategorized\/explore-cardinals-vs-d-backs-expert-picks-and-betting-tips-7-18-26\/"},"modified":"2026-07-18T23:40:14","modified_gmt":"2026-07-19T03:40:14","slug":"explore-cardinals-vs-d-backs-expert-picks-and-betting-tips-7-18-26","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/evanalytics.com\/articles\/mlb-game-previews\/explore-cardinals-vs-d-backs-expert-picks-and-betting-tips-7-18-26\/","title":{"rendered":"Explore Cardinals vs D-Backs Expert Picks and Betting Tips – 7\/18\/26"},"content":{"rendered":"
\n
\n
\"St.<\/p>\n

St. Louis Cardinals<\/h4>\n<\/div>\n
@<\/div>\n
\"Arizona<\/p>\n

Arizona Diamondbacks<\/h4>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
-105<\/span>O\/U: 8.5
(-120\/+100)<\/span>-115<\/span><\/div>\n<\/p>\n

St. Louis Cardinals Insights<\/h3>\n
    \n
  • \n
    Dustin May – Over\/Under 15.5 Pitching Outs (-110\/-120)<\/strong><\/div>\n
    Throwing 91.8 adjusted pitches per game per started this year on average, Dustin May checks in at the 78th percentile.<\/div>\n
    Explain:<\/strong> Pitchers who average more pitches per game are more likely to go deeper into games and record more outs.<\/em><\/small><\/div>\n<\/li>\n
  • \n
    Ivan Herrera – Over\/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+125\/-160)<\/strong><\/div>\n
    In the last two weeks’ worth of games, Ivan Herrera’s Barrel% has experienced a negative regression, plummeting from his seasonal rate of 6.1% down to 0%.<\/div>\n
    Explain:<\/strong> Barrel% measures how often a player hits the ball at the optimal exit velocity and launch angle and is a terrific measure of underlying power.<\/em><\/small><\/div>\n<\/li>\n
  • \n
    Lars Nootbaar – Over\/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+135\/-170)<\/strong><\/div>\n
    Today, Lars Nootbaar is at a disadvantage facing the league’s 3rd-deepest CF center field fences given that he hits his flyballs towards center field at a 41.1% rate (100th percentile).<\/div>\n
    Explain:<\/strong> This player’s skill set does not match up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.<\/em><\/small><\/div>\n<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n

    Arizona Diamondbacks Insights<\/h3>\n
      \n
    • \n
      Brandon Pfaadt – Over\/Under 3.5 Strikeouts (-115\/-115)<\/strong><\/div>\n
      Despite conventional wisdom, fastballs are generally a pitcher’s least effective pitch. Brandon Pfaadt has used his off-speed and breaking pitches 5.1% more often this season (58.3%) than he did last year (53.2%).<\/div>\n
      Explain:<\/strong> A pitcher who limits has fastball usage will instead heavily use change-ups, curveballs, sliders, etc. These are far more effective pitches at preventing runs and generating strikeouts.<\/em><\/small><\/div>\n<\/li>\n
    • \n
      Max Kepler – Over\/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-180\/+140)<\/strong><\/div>\n
      The St. Louis Cardinals have just 1 same-handed RP in their bullpen, so Max Kepler can likely count on holding the platoon advantage against every reliever all game.<\/div>\n
      Explain:<\/strong> Hitters perform worse against pitchers of the same handedness (i.e. righty-vs-righty), and being able to avoid those matchups against the bullpen boosts performance and creates hidden edge.<\/em><\/small><\/div>\n<\/li>\n
    • \n
      <\/strong><\/div>\n
      It may be best to expect stronger performance for the Arizona Diamondbacks offense in the future, given that the leading projection system (THE BAT X) believes they are the 6th-unluckiest offense in the game this year.<\/div>\n
      Explain:<\/strong> When teams underperform their projected talent level, markets may undervalue them even while they are likely to perform better in the near future.<\/em><\/small><\/div>\n<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n

      Betting Trends<\/h3>\n
        \n
      • \n
        Arizona Diamondbacks – Moneyline (-115)<\/strong><\/div>\n
        The Arizona Diamondbacks have hit the Moneyline in 6 of their last 11 games (+4.75 Units \/ 43% ROI)<\/div>\n<\/li>\n
      • \n
        St. Louis Cardinals – Over\/Under 2.5 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total (+110\/-140)<\/strong><\/div>\n
        The St. Louis Cardinals have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Over in 11 of their last 15 away games (+7.45 Units \/ 43% ROI)<\/div>\n<\/li>\n
      • \n
        Masyn Winn – Over\/Under 0.5 Home Runs (+1200\/-6000)<\/strong><\/div>\n
        Masyn Winn has hit the Home Runs Over in 2 of his last 8 away games (+11.00 Units \/ 138% ROI)<\/div>\n<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n
        \n
        <\/form>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

        St. Louis Cardinals @ Arizona Diamondbacks -105O\/U: 8.5(-120\/+100)-115 St. Louis Cardinals Insights Dustin May – Over\/Under 15.5 Pitching Outs (-110\/-120) Throwing 91.8 adjusted pitches per game per started this year… <\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":446820,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[3],"tags":[20,283,286,287,289,288,284,340,830,285,908,498,300,73,282,281,17],"class_list":["post-446819","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-mlb-game-previews","tag-arizona-diamondbacks","tag-bets","tag-betting-guide","tag-betting-line","tag-betting-odds","tag-betting-tips","tag-betting-trends","tag-brandon-pfaadt","tag-dustin-may","tag-expert-picks","tag-ivan-herrera","tag-lars-nootbaar","tag-max-kepler","tag-mlb","tag-odds","tag-picks","tag-st-louis-cardinals"],"yoast_head":"\nExplore Cardinals vs D-Backs Expert Picks and Betting Tips - 7\/18\/26 - WriteNow\u2122 by EV Analytics<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"Explore our expert betting tips and picks for St. Louis Cardinals vs. Arizona Diamondbacks on July 18, 2026. 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