{"id":443919,"date":"2026-07-12T02:34:03","date_gmt":"2026-07-12T06:34:03","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/evanalytics.com\/articles\/uncategorized\/red-sox-vs-mets-best-bets-and-expert-picks-sunday-july-12-2026\/"},"modified":"2026-07-12T17:03:03","modified_gmt":"2026-07-12T21:03:03","slug":"red-sox-vs-mets-best-bets-and-expert-picks-sunday-july-12-2026","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/evanalytics.com\/articles\/mlb-game-previews\/red-sox-vs-mets-best-bets-and-expert-picks-sunday-july-12-2026\/","title":{"rendered":"Red Sox vs Mets Best Bets and Expert Picks – Sunday July 12, 2026"},"content":{"rendered":"
\n
\n
\"Boston<\/p>\n

Boston Red Sox<\/h4>\n<\/div>\n
@<\/div>\n
\"New<\/p>\n

New York Mets<\/h4>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
-110<\/span>O\/U: 8
(-110\/-110)<\/span>-110<\/span><\/div>\n<\/p>\n

Boston Red Sox Insights<\/h3>\n
    \n
  • \n
    Payton Tolle – Over\/Under 15.5 Pitching Outs (+160\/-210)<\/strong><\/div>\n
    The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Payton Tolle to throw 83 pitches in this game (7th-least of all pitchers on the slate), considering both his underlying tendencies and the matchup.<\/div>\n
    Explain:<\/strong> Pitchers who throw relatively few pitches are more likely to get pulled from the game earlier, record fewer outs, and generate fewer strikeouts.<\/em><\/small><\/div>\n<\/li>\n
  • \n
    Boston Red Sox – 2H Moneyline<\/strong><\/div>\n
    The Boston Red Sox bullpen projects as the 2nd-best in the league, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT).<\/div>\n
    Explain:<\/strong> Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a strong bullpen sneakily creates a tougher matchup for the opposing offense and suppresses a game’s runs.<\/em><\/small><\/div>\n<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n

    New York Mets Insights<\/h3>\n
      \n
    • \n
      Zach Thornton – Over\/Under 4.5 Strikeouts (+115\/-145)<\/strong><\/div>\n
      With 7 batters who bat from the other side in the opposing team’s projected lineup, Zachary Thornton will have a tough matchup while lacking the platoon advantage in most plate appearances in this matchup.<\/div>\n
      Explain:<\/strong> Right-handed pitchers perform worse against left-handed hitters (and visa-versa). If several hitters hold this advantage against the pitcher, it can have a huge impact on whether he will perform well or struggle on any given day.<\/em><\/small><\/div>\n<\/li>\n
    • \n
      Zack Short – Over\/Under 0.5 Total Bases (+140\/-180)<\/strong><\/div>\n
      Zack Short is an extreme flyball batter and squares off against the strong outfield defense of Boston (#1-best of the day).<\/div>\n
      Explain:<\/strong> This player’s skill set matches up poorly with the opposing team’s defensive strength, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.<\/em><\/small><\/div>\n<\/li>\n
    • \n
      Zack Short – Over\/Under 0.5 Total Bases (+140\/-180)<\/strong><\/div>\n
      Zack Short hits a lot of his flyballs to center field (40.3% \u2014 99th percentile) and sets up very well considering he’ll be hitting out towards baseball’s shallowest CF fences in today’s matchup.<\/div>\n
      Explain:<\/strong> This player’s skill set matches up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.<\/em><\/small><\/div>\n<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n

      Betting Trends<\/h3>\n
        \n
      • \n
        New York Mets – Over\/Under 1.5 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total (-140\/+110)<\/strong><\/div>\n
        The New York Mets have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 7 of their last 9 games at home (+4.90 Units \/ 46% ROI)<\/div>\n<\/li>\n
      • \n
        Boston Red Sox – 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline (-130)<\/strong><\/div>\n
        The Boston Red Sox have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in their last 10 away games (+10.40 Units \/ 77% ROI)<\/div>\n<\/li>\n
      • \n
        Juan Soto – Over\/Under 0.5 Hits (-230\/+175)<\/strong><\/div>\n
        Juan Soto has hit the Hits Over in 20 of his last 25 games at home (+8.80 Units \/ 16% ROI)<\/div>\n<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n
        \n
        <\/form>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

        Boston Red Sox @ New York Mets -110O\/U: 8(-110\/-110)-110 Boston Red Sox Insights Payton Tolle – Over\/Under 15.5 Pitching Outs (+160\/-210) The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Payton… <\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":443920,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[3],"tags":[283,286,287,289,288,284,18,285,73,33,282,1095,281,1131,954],"class_list":["post-443919","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-mlb-game-previews","tag-bets","tag-betting-guide","tag-betting-line","tag-betting-odds","tag-betting-tips","tag-betting-trends","tag-boston-red-sox","tag-expert-picks","tag-mlb","tag-new-york-mets","tag-odds","tag-payton-tolle","tag-picks","tag-zach-thornton","tag-zack-short"],"yoast_head":"\nRed Sox vs Mets Best Bets and Expert Picks - Sunday July 12, 2026 - WriteNow\u2122 by EV Analytics<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"Explore our expert betting tips and picks for Boston Red Sox vs. New York Mets on July 12, 2026. 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