{"id":439904,"date":"2026-07-09T05:21:04","date_gmt":"2026-07-09T09:21:04","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/evanalytics.com\/articles\/uncategorized\/expert-player-predictions-for-d-backs-vs-padres-thursday-july-09-2026\/"},"modified":"2026-07-09T07:27:00","modified_gmt":"2026-07-09T11:27:00","slug":"expert-player-predictions-for-d-backs-vs-padres-thursday-july-09-2026","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/evanalytics.com\/articles\/mlb-game-previews\/expert-player-predictions-for-d-backs-vs-padres-thursday-july-09-2026\/","title":{"rendered":"Expert Player Predictions for D-Backs vs Padres – Thursday, July 09, 2026"},"content":{"rendered":"
\n
\n
\"Arizona<\/p>\n

Arizona Diamondbacks<\/h4>\n<\/div>\n
@<\/div>\n
\"San<\/p>\n

San Diego Padres<\/h4>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
+105<\/span>O\/U: 9
(+100\/-120)<\/span>-130<\/span><\/div>\n<\/p>\n

Arizona Diamondbacks Insights<\/h3>\n
    \n
  • \n
    Merrill Kelly – Over\/Under 17.5 Pitching Outs (-140\/+110)<\/strong><\/div>\n
    Merrill Kelly has averaged 92.9 adjusted pitches per game per started this year, ranking in the 84th percentile.<\/div>\n
    Explain:<\/strong> Pitchers who average more pitches per game are more likely to go deeper into games and record more outs.<\/em><\/small><\/div>\n<\/li>\n
  • \n
    Pavin Smith – Over\/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-105\/-125)<\/strong><\/div>\n
    Pavin Smith’s exit velocity on flyballs has declined this season; his 91.9-mph EV last year has decreased to 87.1-mph.<\/div>\n
    Explain:<\/strong> Most home runs are flyballs, and the harder those flyballs are hit, the more often they turn into home runs. This is a strong indicator of power.<\/em><\/small><\/div>\n<\/li>\n
  • \n
    <\/strong><\/div>\n
    The 7.1% Barrel% of the Arizona Diamondbacks makes them the #25 group of hitters in Major League Baseball this year by this standard.<\/div>\n
    Explain:<\/strong> Barrel% measures how often a player hits the ball at the optimal exit velocity and launch angle and is a terrific measure of underlying power.<\/em><\/small><\/div>\n<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n

    San Diego Padres Insights<\/h3>\n
      \n
    • \n
      Griffin Canning – Over\/Under 3.5 Strikeouts (-155\/+120)<\/strong><\/div>\n
      Griffin Canning has gone to his sinker 9.4% more often this year (9.9%) than he did last season (0.5%).<\/div>\n
      Explain:<\/strong> Sinkers are the easiest pitches to hit and generate the fewest strikeouts, so a pitcher who begins to use his sinker more often will likely be less effective than he used to be.<\/em><\/small><\/div>\n<\/li>\n
    • \n
      Jackson Merrill – Over\/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+100\/-130)<\/strong><\/div>\n
      Jackson Merrill has been unlucky this year, notching a .274 wOBA despite the leading projection system (THE BAT X) estimating his true talent level to be .334 \u2014 a .060 difference.<\/div>\n
      Explain:<\/strong> Players that are underperforming should be expected to play worse going forward, which can create value on prop Overs if the lines are too heavily weighing the unlucky, to-date underperformance.<\/em><\/small><\/div>\n<\/li>\n
    • \n
      Fernando Tatis Jr. – Over\/Under 1.5 Total Bases (-110\/-120)<\/strong><\/div>\n
      Fernando Tatis Jr. hits a lot of his flyballs to center field (40.8% \u2014 99th percentile) and sets up very well considering he’ll be hitting out towards the league’s 2nd-shallowest CF fences today.<\/div>\n
      Explain:<\/strong> This player’s skill set matches up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.<\/em><\/small><\/div>\n<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n

      Betting Trends<\/h3>\n
        \n
      • \n
        Over\/Under 9.0 Game Total (+100\/-120)<\/strong><\/div>\n
        The San Diego Padres have hit the Game Total Under in 5 of their last 6 games (+3.90 Units \/ 59% ROI)<\/div>\n<\/li>\n
      • \n
        Over\/Under 9.0 Game Total (+100\/-120)<\/strong><\/div>\n
        The Arizona Diamondbacks have hit the Game Total Under in 14 of their last 17 away games (+10.70 Units \/ 57% ROI)<\/div>\n<\/li>\n
      • \n
        Jake Cronenworth – Over\/Under 0.5 Singles (+120\/-155)<\/strong><\/div>\n
        Jake Cronenworth has hit the Singles Under in 18 of his last 25 games (+8.05 Units \/ 22% ROI)<\/div>\n<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n
        \n
        <\/form>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

        Arizona Diamondbacks @ San Diego Padres +105O\/U: 9(+100\/-120)-130 Arizona Diamondbacks Insights Merrill Kelly – Over\/Under 17.5 Pitching Outs (-140\/+110) Merrill Kelly has averaged 92.9 adjusted pitches per game per started… <\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":439905,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[3],"tags":[20,770,223,504,97,636,73,231,234,230,229,227,228,225,233,232,226,21],"class_list":["post-439904","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-mlb-game-previews","tag-arizona-diamondbacks","tag-fernando-tatis-jr","tag-griffin-canning","tag-ildemaro-vargas","tag-jackson-merrill","tag-merrill-kelly","tag-mlb","tag-player-analysis","tag-player-insights","tag-player-predictions","tag-player-prop-bets","tag-player-prop-odds","tag-player-prop-picks","tag-player-props","tag-player-rankings","tag-player-stats","tag-player-trends","tag-san-diego-padres"],"yoast_head":"\nExpert Player Predictions for D-Backs vs Padres - Thursday, July 09, 2026 - WriteNow\u2122 by EV Analytics<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"Discover the top player props, prop odds, player picks, and prop bets for the Arizona Diamondbacks vs. San Diego Padres matchup on July 9, 2026. 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