{"id":436796,"date":"2026-07-07T02:20:14","date_gmt":"2026-07-07T06:20:14","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/evanalytics.com\/articles\/uncategorized\/astros-vs-nationals-picks-and-betting-tips-july-7th-2026\/"},"modified":"2026-07-07T20:27:03","modified_gmt":"2026-07-08T00:27:03","slug":"astros-vs-nationals-picks-and-betting-tips-july-7th-2026","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/evanalytics.com\/articles\/mlb-game-previews\/astros-vs-nationals-picks-and-betting-tips-july-7th-2026\/","title":{"rendered":"Astros vs Nationals Picks and Betting Tips &#8211; July 7th, 2026"},"content":{"rendered":"<div class=\"eva_article_wrap\">\n<div class=\"eva_team_logos\">\n<div class=\"eva_away_team\"><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/evanalytics.com\/images\/mlb\/HOU.png\" alt=\"Houston Astros logo\" \/><\/p>\n<h4>Houston Astros<\/h4>\n<\/div>\n<div class=\"eva_matchup_symbol\">@<\/div>\n<div class=\"eva_home_team\"><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/evanalytics.com\/images\/mlb\/WSH.png\" alt=\"Washington Nationals logo\" \/><\/p>\n<h4>Washington Nationals<\/h4>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<div class=\"eva_odds\"><span>+100<\/span><span>O\/U: 9.5<br \/>(-110\/-110)<\/span><span>-120<\/span><\/div>\n<\/p>\n<h3 style=\"margin: 3rem 0 0 0;\">Houston Astros Insights<\/h3>\n<ul>\n<li>\n<div style=\"display: block; margin: 0.75rem 0;\"><strong>Tatsuya Imai &#8211; Over\/Under Pitching Outs<\/strong><\/div>\n<div style=\"display: block; margin: 0.25rem 0;\">Tatsuya Imai has been given a longer leash than the average pitcher this year, tallying 4.3 more adjusted pitches-per-start than average.<\/div>\n<div style=\"display: block; margin: 0.25rem 0 1.5rem;\"><small><em><strong>Explain:<\/strong> Pitchers with a longer leash are more likely to go deeper into games and record more outs.<\/em><\/small><\/div>\n<\/li>\n<li>\n<div style=\"display: block; margin: 0.75rem 0;\"><strong>Cam Smith &#8211; Over\/Under 0.5 Hits (-195\/+150)<\/strong><\/div>\n<div style=\"display: block; margin: 0.25rem 0;\">Cam Smith is projected to hit 5th in the lineup in this matchup, which would be an upgrade from his 75% rate of hitting in the bottom-half of the batting order this season.<\/div>\n<div style=\"display: block; margin: 0.25rem 0 1.5rem;\"><small><em><strong>Explain:<\/strong> The higher in the order a player bats, the more plate appearances he will get and the more opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market.  A player who hits higher in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting lower.<\/em><\/small><\/div>\n<\/li>\n<li>\n<div style=\"display: block; margin: 0.75rem 0;\"><strong>Zach Dezenzo &#8211; Over\/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-155\/+120)<\/strong><\/div>\n<div style=\"display: block; margin: 0.25rem 0;\">Zach Dezenzo has an 83rd percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (34.2%) and has the good fortune of hitting them towards MLB&#8217;s 10th-shallowest RF fences in today&#8217;s game.<\/div>\n<div style=\"display: block; margin: 0.25rem 0 1.5rem;\"><small><em><strong>Explain:<\/strong> This player&#8217;s skill set matches up particularly well with the park he&#8217;s in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.<\/em><\/small><\/div>\n<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<h3 style=\"margin: 3rem 0 0 0;\">Washington Nationals Insights<\/h3>\n<ul>\n<li>\n<div style=\"display: block; margin: 0.75rem 0;\"><strong>Andrew Alvarez &#8211; Over\/Under 4.5 Strikeouts (-120\/-110)<\/strong><\/div>\n<div style=\"display: block; margin: 0.25rem 0;\">With 8 hitters who bat from the other side in the opposing team&#8217;s projected offense, Andrew Alvarez encounters a tough challenge while lacking the platoon advantage in most plate appearances in this matchup.<\/div>\n<div style=\"display: block; margin: 0.25rem 0 1.5rem;\"><small><em><strong>Explain:<\/strong> Right-handed pitchers perform worse against left-handed hitters (and visa-versa). If several hitters hold this advantage against the pitcher, it can have a huge impact on whether he will perform well or struggle on any given day.<\/em><\/small><\/div>\n<\/li>\n<li>\n<div style=\"display: block; margin: 0.75rem 0;\"><strong>Curtis Mead &#8211; Over\/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+140\/-185)<\/strong><\/div>\n<div style=\"display: block; margin: 0.25rem 0;\">Curtis Mead&#8217;s average exit velocity has decreased of late; his 87.6-mph seasonal mark has lowered to 82.3-mph in the last two weeks&#8217; worth of games.<\/div>\n<div style=\"display: block; margin: 0.25rem 0 1.5rem;\"><small><em><strong>Explain:<\/strong> Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.<\/em><\/small><\/div>\n<\/li>\n<li>\n<div style=\"display: block; margin: 0.75rem 0;\"><strong><\/strong><\/div>\n<div style=\"display: block; margin: 0.25rem 0;\">The underlying talent of the Washington Nationals projected offense today (.317 projected wOBA via the leading projection system, THE BAT X) figures to be significantly weaker than their .328 wOBA this year.<\/div>\n<div style=\"display: block; margin: 0.25rem 0 1.5rem;\"><small><em><strong>Explain:<\/strong> Betting lines are often based on seasonal team quality.  If today&#8217;s lineup is watered down, however, there may be value if markets aren&#8217;t accounting for the lower quality of this offense.<\/em><\/small><\/div>\n<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<h3 style=\"margin: 3rem 0 0 0;\">Betting Trends<\/h3>\n<ul>\n<li>\n<div style=\"display: block; margin: 0.75rem 0;\"><strong>Washington Nationals &#8211; 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline (-145)<\/strong><\/div>\n<div style=\"display: block; margin: 0.25rem 0 1.5rem;\">The Washington Nationals have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 29 of their last 50 games (+15.40 Units \/ 27% ROI)<\/div>\n<\/li>\n<li>\n<div style=\"display: block; margin: 0.75rem 0;\"><strong>Houston Astros &#8211; Over\/Under 4.5 Team Total (-110\/-120)<\/strong><\/div>\n<div style=\"display: block; margin: 0.25rem 0 1.5rem;\">The Houston Astros have hit the Team Total Over in 12 of their last 19 away games (+5.05 Units \/ 23% ROI)<\/div>\n<\/li>\n<li>\n<div style=\"display: block; margin: 0.75rem 0;\"><strong>Isaac Paredes &#8211; Over\/Under 0.5 Hits (-215\/+165)<\/strong><\/div>\n<div style=\"display: block; margin: 0.25rem 0 1.5rem;\">Isaac Paredes has hit the Hits Over in 16 of his last 20 games (+8.10 Units \/ 23% ROI)<\/div>\n<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<div>\n<form><input type=\"hidden\" id=\"ga-page-group\" name=\"ga-page-group\" value=\"GAME PREVIEW\"><input type=\"hidden\" id=\"ga-sport\" name=\"ga-sport\" \"value=\"mlb\"><input type=\"hidden\" id=\"ga-title-id\" name=\"ga-title-id\"value=\"2.20.1\"><input type=\"hidden\" id=\"ga-title-group\" name=\"ga-title-group\" value=\"BETTING\"><input type=\"hidden\" id=\"ga-title-cta\" name=\"ga-title-cta\" value=\"0\"><\/form>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Houston Astros @ Washington Nationals +100O\/U: 9.5(-110\/-110)-120 Houston Astros Insights Tatsuya Imai &#8211; Over\/Under Pitching Outs Tatsuya Imai has been given a longer leash than the average pitcher this year,&hellip; <\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":436797,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[3],"tags":[1032,283,286,287,289,288,284,549,285,29,73,905,282,281,1081,11,1120],"class_list":["post-436796","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-mlb-game-previews","tag-andrew-alvarez","tag-bets","tag-betting-guide","tag-betting-line","tag-betting-odds","tag-betting-tips","tag-betting-trends","tag-curtis-mead","tag-expert-picks","tag-houston-astros","tag-mlb","tag-nick-allen","tag-odds","tag-picks","tag-tatsuya-imai","tag-washington-nationals","tag-zach-dezenzo"],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v28.1 - https:\/\/yoast.com\/product\/yoast-seo-wordpress\/ -->\n<title>Astros vs Nationals Picks and Betting Tips - July 7th, 2026 - WriteNow\u2122 by EV Analytics<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"Explore our expert betting tips and picks for Houston Astros vs. Washington Nationals on July 7, 2026. 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