{"id":436796,"date":"2026-07-07T02:20:14","date_gmt":"2026-07-07T06:20:14","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/evanalytics.com\/articles\/uncategorized\/astros-vs-nationals-picks-and-betting-tips-july-7th-2026\/"},"modified":"2026-07-07T07:17:04","modified_gmt":"2026-07-07T11:17:04","slug":"astros-vs-nationals-picks-and-betting-tips-july-7th-2026","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/evanalytics.com\/articles\/mlb-game-previews\/astros-vs-nationals-picks-and-betting-tips-july-7th-2026\/","title":{"rendered":"Astros vs Nationals Picks and Betting Tips &#8211; July 7th, 2026"},"content":{"rendered":"<div class=\"eva_article_wrap\">\n<div class=\"eva_team_logos\">\n<div class=\"eva_away_team\"><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/evanalytics.com\/images\/mlb\/HOU.png\" alt=\"Houston Astros logo\" \/><\/p>\n<h4>Houston Astros<\/h4>\n<\/div>\n<div class=\"eva_matchup_symbol\">@<\/div>\n<div class=\"eva_home_team\"><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/evanalytics.com\/images\/mlb\/WSH.png\" alt=\"Washington Nationals logo\" \/><\/p>\n<h4>Washington Nationals<\/h4>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<div class=\"eva_odds\"><span>+100<\/span><span>O\/U: 9<br \/>(-120\/+100)<\/span><span>-120<\/span><\/div>\n<\/p>\n<h3 style=\"margin: 3rem 0 0 0;\">Houston Astros Insights<\/h3>\n<ul>\n<li>\n<div style=\"display: block; margin: 0.75rem 0;\"><strong>Tatsuya Imai &#8211; Over\/Under Pitching Outs<\/strong><\/div>\n<div style=\"display: block; margin: 0.25rem 0;\">Tatsuya Imai has been given a longer leash than the average pitcher this year, tallying 4.3 more adjusted pitches-per-start than average.<\/div>\n<div style=\"display: block; margin: 0.25rem 0 1.5rem;\"><small><em><strong>Explain:<\/strong> Pitchers with a longer leash are more likely to go deeper into games and record more outs.<\/em><\/small><\/div>\n<\/li>\n<li>\n<div style=\"display: block; margin: 0.75rem 0;\"><strong>Jose Altuve &#8211; Over\/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+130\/-170)<\/strong><\/div>\n<div style=\"display: block; margin: 0.25rem 0;\">Jose Altuve has negatively regressed with his Barrel% of late; his 6.4% seasonal rate has lowered to 0% over the last two weeks.<\/div>\n<div style=\"display: block; margin: 0.25rem 0 1.5rem;\"><small><em><strong>Explain:<\/strong> Barrel% measures how often a player hits the ball at the optimal exit velocity and launch angle and is a terrific measure of underlying power.<\/em><\/small><\/div>\n<\/li>\n<li>\n<div style=\"display: block; margin: 0.75rem 0;\"><strong>Zach Dezenzo &#8211; Over\/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-140\/+110)<\/strong><\/div>\n<div style=\"display: block; margin: 0.25rem 0;\">Zach Dezenzo has an 83rd percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (34.2%) and has the good fortune of hitting them towards MLB&#8217;s 10th-shallowest RF fences in today&#8217;s game.<\/div>\n<div style=\"display: block; margin: 0.25rem 0 1.5rem;\"><small><em><strong>Explain:<\/strong> This player&#8217;s skill set matches up particularly well with the park he&#8217;s in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.<\/em><\/small><\/div>\n<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<h3 style=\"margin: 3rem 0 0 0;\">Washington Nationals Insights<\/h3>\n<ul>\n<li>\n<div style=\"display: block; margin: 0.75rem 0;\"><strong>Andrew Alvarez &#8211; Over\/Under 4.5 Strikeouts (-110\/-120)<\/strong><\/div>\n<div style=\"display: block; margin: 0.25rem 0;\">With 8 hitters who bat from the other side in the opposing team&#8217;s projected offense, Andrew Alvarez encounters a tough challenge while lacking the platoon advantage in most plate appearances in this matchup.<\/div>\n<div style=\"display: block; margin: 0.25rem 0 1.5rem;\"><small><em><strong>Explain:<\/strong> Right-handed pitchers perform worse against left-handed hitters (and visa-versa). If several hitters hold this advantage against the pitcher, it can have a huge impact on whether he will perform well or struggle on any given day.<\/em><\/small><\/div>\n<\/li>\n<li>\n<div style=\"display: block; margin: 0.75rem 0;\"><strong>Curtis Mead &#8211; Over\/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-185\/+145)<\/strong><\/div>\n<div style=\"display: block; margin: 0.25rem 0;\">Curtis Mead&#8217;s average exit velocity has decreased of late; his 87.6-mph seasonal mark has lowered to 82.3-mph in the last two weeks&#8217; worth of games.<\/div>\n<div style=\"display: block; margin: 0.25rem 0 1.5rem;\"><small><em><strong>Explain:<\/strong> Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.<\/em><\/small><\/div>\n<\/li>\n<li>\n<div style=\"display: block; margin: 0.75rem 0;\"><strong><\/strong><\/div>\n<div style=\"display: block; margin: 0.25rem 0;\">The Washington Nationals have been the 2nd-luckiest offense in MLB this year, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X), and are likely to negatively regress in the future<\/div>\n<div style=\"display: block; margin: 0.25rem 0 1.5rem;\"><small><em><strong>Explain:<\/strong> When teams overperform their projected talent level, markets may overvalue them even while they are likely to perform worse in the near future.<\/em><\/small><\/div>\n<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<h3 style=\"margin: 3rem 0 0 0;\">Betting Trends<\/h3>\n<ul>\n<li>\n<div style=\"display: block; margin: 0.75rem 0;\"><strong>Washington Nationals &#8211; 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline (-125)<\/strong><\/div>\n<div style=\"display: block; margin: 0.25rem 0 1.5rem;\">The Washington Nationals have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 29 of their last 50 games (+15.40 Units \/ 27% ROI)<\/div>\n<\/li>\n<li>\n<div style=\"display: block; margin: 0.75rem 0;\"><strong>Houston Astros &#8211; Over\/Under 4.5 Team Total (-105\/-125)<\/strong><\/div>\n<div style=\"display: block; margin: 0.25rem 0 1.5rem;\">The Houston Astros have hit the Team Total Over in 12 of their last 19 away games (+5.05 Units \/ 23% ROI)<\/div>\n<\/li>\n<li>\n<div style=\"display: block; margin: 0.75rem 0;\"><strong>Yainer Diaz &#8211; Over\/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+135\/-180)<\/strong><\/div>\n<div style=\"display: block; margin: 0.25rem 0 1.5rem;\">Yainer Diaz has hit the Total Bases Over in 15 of his last 25 away games (+7.40 Units \/ 26% ROI)<\/div>\n<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<div>\n<form><input type=\"hidden\" id=\"ga-page-group\" name=\"ga-page-group\" value=\"GAME PREVIEW\"><input type=\"hidden\" id=\"ga-sport\" name=\"ga-sport\" \"value=\"mlb\"><input type=\"hidden\" id=\"ga-title-id\" name=\"ga-title-id\"value=\"2.20.1\"><input type=\"hidden\" id=\"ga-title-group\" name=\"ga-title-group\" value=\"BETTING\"><input type=\"hidden\" id=\"ga-title-cta\" name=\"ga-title-cta\" value=\"0\"><\/form>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Houston Astros @ Washington Nationals +100O\/U: 9(-120\/+100)-120 Houston Astros Insights Tatsuya Imai &#8211; Over\/Under Pitching Outs Tatsuya Imai has been given a longer leash than the average pitcher this year,&hellip; <\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":436797,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[3],"tags":[1032,283,286,287,289,288,284,549,285,29,73,905,282,281,1081,11,1120],"class_list":["post-436796","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-mlb-game-previews","tag-andrew-alvarez","tag-bets","tag-betting-guide","tag-betting-line","tag-betting-odds","tag-betting-tips","tag-betting-trends","tag-curtis-mead","tag-expert-picks","tag-houston-astros","tag-mlb","tag-nick-allen","tag-odds","tag-picks","tag-tatsuya-imai","tag-washington-nationals","tag-zach-dezenzo"],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v27.9 - https:\/\/yoast.com\/product\/yoast-seo-wordpress\/ -->\n<title>Astros vs Nationals Picks and Betting Tips - July 7th, 2026 - WriteNow\u2122 by EV Analytics<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"Explore our expert betting tips and picks for Houston Astros vs. Washington Nationals on July 7, 2026. 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