{"id":434575,"date":"2026-07-05T03:40:04","date_gmt":"2026-07-05T07:40:04","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/evanalytics.com\/articles\/uncategorized\/rays-vs-astros-best-bets-and-expert-picks-sunday-july-05-2026\/"},"modified":"2026-07-05T18:17:03","modified_gmt":"2026-07-05T22:17:03","slug":"rays-vs-astros-best-bets-and-expert-picks-sunday-july-05-2026","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/evanalytics.com\/articles\/mlb-game-previews\/rays-vs-astros-best-bets-and-expert-picks-sunday-july-05-2026\/","title":{"rendered":"Rays vs Astros Best Bets and Expert Picks &#8211; Sunday July 05, 2026"},"content":{"rendered":"<div class=\"eva_article_wrap\">\n<div class=\"eva_team_logos\">\n<div class=\"eva_away_team\"><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/evanalytics.com\/images\/mlb\/TB.png\" alt=\"Tampa Bay Rays logo\" \/><\/p>\n<h4>Tampa Bay Rays<\/h4>\n<\/div>\n<div class=\"eva_matchup_symbol\">@<\/div>\n<div class=\"eva_home_team\"><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/evanalytics.com\/images\/mlb\/HOU.png\" alt=\"Houston Astros logo\" \/><\/p>\n<h4>Houston Astros<\/h4>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<div class=\"eva_odds\"><span>-105<\/span><span>O\/U: 9<br \/>(-110\/-110)<\/span><span>-115<\/span><\/div>\n<\/p>\n<h3 style=\"margin: 3rem 0 0 0;\">Tampa Bay Rays Insights<\/h3>\n<ul>\n<li>\n<div style=\"display: block; margin: 0.75rem 0;\"><strong>Mason Englert &#8211; Over\/Under 14.5 Pitching Outs (-115\/-115)<\/strong><\/div>\n<div style=\"display: block; margin: 0.25rem 0;\">Mason Englert has averaged 74 adjusted pitches per outing this year, grading out in the 3rd percentile.<\/div>\n<div style=\"display: block; margin: 0.25rem 0 1.5rem;\"><small><em><strong>Explain:<\/strong> Pitchers who average more pitches per game are more likely to go deeper into games and record more outs.<\/em><\/small><\/div>\n<\/li>\n<li>\n<div style=\"display: block; margin: 0.75rem 0;\"><strong>Cedric Mullins &#8211; Over\/Under 0.5 Hits (-170\/+135)<\/strong><\/div>\n<div style=\"display: block; margin: 0.25rem 0;\">Cedric Mullins is projected to bat 4th in the batting order in this game, which would be an upgrade from his 74% rate of hitting in the bottom-half of the lineup this season.<\/div>\n<div style=\"display: block; margin: 0.25rem 0 1.5rem;\"><small><em><strong>Explain:<\/strong> The higher in the order a player bats, the more plate appearances he will get and the more opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market.  A player who hits higher in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting lower.<\/em><\/small><\/div>\n<\/li>\n<li>\n<div style=\"display: block; margin: 0.75rem 0;\"><strong>Yandy Diaz &#8211; Over\/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+100\/-130)<\/strong><\/div>\n<div style=\"display: block; margin: 0.25rem 0;\">Yandy Diaz has a 100th percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (43.3%) and will be challenged by the game&#8217;s 9th-deepest RF fences in today&#8217;s matchup.<\/div>\n<div style=\"display: block; margin: 0.25rem 0 1.5rem;\"><small><em><strong>Explain:<\/strong> This player&#8217;s skill set does not match up particularly well with the park he&#8217;s in today, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.<\/em><\/small><\/div>\n<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<h3 style=\"margin: 3rem 0 0 0;\">Houston Astros Insights<\/h3>\n<ul>\n<li>\n<div style=\"display: block; margin: 0.75rem 0;\"><strong>Peter Lambert &#8211; Over\/Under 4.5 Strikeouts (-110\/-120)<\/strong><\/div>\n<div style=\"display: block; margin: 0.25rem 0;\">Peter Lambert has a reverse platoon split and has the benefit of facing 6 opposite-handed hitters in this matchup.<\/div>\n<div style=\"display: block; margin: 0.25rem 0 1.5rem;\"><small><em><strong>Explain:<\/strong> A pitcher with a reverse platoon split will perform better against opposite-handed hitters (i.e. a right-handed pitcher will be better against a left-handed hitter). Holding this advantage against several hitters can have a huge impact on whether a pitcher will perform well or struggle on any given day.<\/em><\/small><\/div>\n<\/li>\n<li>\n<div style=\"display: block; margin: 0.75rem 0;\"><strong>Yordan Alvarez &#8211; Over\/Under 1.5 Total Bases (-130\/+100)<\/strong><\/div>\n<div style=\"display: block; margin: 0.25rem 0;\">Yordan Alvarez has been hot lately, raising his seasonal exit velocity of 94.4-mph to 100.2-mph in the last week.<\/div>\n<div style=\"display: block; margin: 0.25rem 0 1.5rem;\"><small><em><strong>Explain:<\/strong> Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.<\/em><\/small><\/div>\n<\/li>\n<li>\n<div style=\"display: block; margin: 0.75rem 0;\"><strong><\/strong><\/div>\n<div style=\"display: block; margin: 0.25rem 0;\">Collectively, Houston Astros batters have not performed well when assessing hitting balls in the launch angle band that tends to optimize home runs (between 23\u00b0 and 34\u00b0), placing 8th-worst in the majors.<\/div>\n<div style=\"display: block; margin: 0.25rem 0 1.5rem;\"><small><em><strong>Explain:<\/strong> Balls that are hit too low can&#8217;t clear the fences, and balls that are hit too high generally don&#8217;t go far enough and are easy pop flies, but balls hit between 23\u00b0 and 34\u00b0 are far more likely to become home runs.<\/em><\/small><\/div>\n<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<h3 style=\"margin: 3rem 0 0 0;\">Betting Trends<\/h3>\n<ul>\n<li>\n<div style=\"display: block; margin: 0.75rem 0;\"><strong>Houston Astros &#8211; Over\/Under 2.5 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total (+110\/-140)<\/strong><\/div>\n<div style=\"display: block; margin: 0.25rem 0 1.5rem;\">The Houston Astros have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 7 of their last 10 games at home (+3.90 Units \/ 31% ROI)<\/div>\n<\/li>\n<li>\n<div style=\"display: block; margin: 0.75rem 0;\"><strong>Tampa Bay Rays &#8211; 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline (-110)<\/strong><\/div>\n<div style=\"display: block; margin: 0.25rem 0 1.5rem;\">The Tampa Bay Rays have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 9 of their last 10 games (+9.00 Units \/ 62% ROI)<\/div>\n<\/li>\n<li>\n<div style=\"display: block; margin: 0.75rem 0;\"><strong>Cedric Mullins &#8211; Over\/Under 0.5 Home Runs (+450\/-750)<\/strong><\/div>\n<div style=\"display: block; margin: 0.25rem 0 1.5rem;\">Cedric Mullins has hit the Home Runs Over in 4 of his last 7 games (+15.80 Units \/ 226% ROI)<\/div>\n<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<div>\n<form><input type=\"hidden\" id=\"ga-page-group\" name=\"ga-page-group\" value=\"GAME PREVIEW\"><input type=\"hidden\" id=\"ga-sport\" name=\"ga-sport\" \"value=\"mlb\"><input type=\"hidden\" id=\"ga-title-id\" name=\"ga-title-id\"value=\"2.3.1\"><input type=\"hidden\" id=\"ga-title-group\" name=\"ga-title-group\" value=\"BETTING\"><input type=\"hidden\" id=\"ga-title-cta\" name=\"ga-title-cta\" value=\"0\"><\/form>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Tampa Bay Rays @ Houston Astros -105O\/U: 9(-110\/-110)-115 Tampa Bay Rays Insights Mason Englert &#8211; Over\/Under 14.5 Pitching Outs (-115\/-115) Mason Englert has averaged 74 adjusted pitches per outing this&hellip; <\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":434576,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[3],"tags":[283,286,287,289,288,284,315,285,1026,29,73,282,1092,281,1163,25,163],"class_list":["post-434575","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-mlb-game-previews","tag-bets","tag-betting-guide","tag-betting-line","tag-betting-odds","tag-betting-tips","tag-betting-trends","tag-cedric-mullins","tag-expert-picks","tag-griffin-jax","tag-houston-astros","tag-mlb","tag-odds","tag-peter-lambert","tag-picks","tag-ryan-vilade","tag-tampa-bay-rays","tag-yordan-alvarez"],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v28.4 - https:\/\/yoast.com\/product\/yoast-seo-wordpress\/ -->\n<title>Rays vs Astros Best Bets and Expert Picks - Sunday July 05, 2026 - WriteNow\u2122 by EV Analytics<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"Explore our expert betting tips and picks for Tampa Bay Rays vs. Houston Astros on July 5, 2026. 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