{"id":425072,"date":"2026-06-28T02:48:03","date_gmt":"2026-06-28T06:48:03","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/evanalytics.com\/articles\/uncategorized\/explore-d-backs-vs-rays-expert-picks-and-betting-guide-6-28-2026\/"},"modified":"2026-06-28T05:12:03","modified_gmt":"2026-06-28T09:12:03","slug":"explore-d-backs-vs-rays-expert-picks-and-betting-guide-6-28-2026","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/evanalytics.com\/articles\/mlb-game-previews\/explore-d-backs-vs-rays-expert-picks-and-betting-guide-6-28-2026\/","title":{"rendered":"Explore D-Backs vs Rays Expert Picks and Betting Guide – 6\/28\/2026"},"content":{"rendered":"
\n
\n
\"Arizona<\/p>\n

Arizona Diamondbacks<\/h4>\n<\/div>\n
@<\/div>\n
\"Tampa<\/p>\n

Tampa Bay Rays<\/h4>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
+160<\/span>O\/U: 7.5
(-110\/-110)<\/span>-185<\/span><\/div>\n<\/p>\n

Arizona Diamondbacks Insights<\/h3>\n
    \n
  • \n
    Merrill Kelly – Over\/Under 17.5 Pitching Outs (-115\/-115)<\/strong><\/div>\n
    Merrill Kelly has tallied 17.5 outs per outing this year, checking in at the 85th percentile.<\/div>\n
    Explain:<\/strong> A pitcher who averages more outs per start than his Outs prop may be a good bet to go over, and visa-versa for the under.<\/em><\/small><\/div>\n<\/li>\n
  • \n
    Geraldo Perdomo – Over\/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-155\/+120)<\/strong><\/div>\n
    Geraldo Perdomo has been cold in recent games, with his seasonal exit velocity of 86.7-mph dropping to 80.7-mph over the past week.<\/div>\n
    Explain:<\/strong> Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.<\/em><\/small><\/div>\n<\/li>\n
  • \n
    <\/strong><\/div>\n
    Arizona Diamondbacks bats jointly rank among the worst in MLB this year ( 7th-worst) as far as their 88.3-mph average exit velocity.<\/div>\n
    Explain:<\/strong> Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.<\/em><\/small><\/div>\n<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n

    Tampa Bay Rays Insights<\/h3>\n
      \n
    • \n
      Drew Rasmussen – Over\/Under 5.5 Strikeouts (-120\/-110)<\/strong><\/div>\n
      Despite conventional wisdom, fastballs are generally a pitcher’s least effective pitch. Drew Rasmussen has utilized his off-speed and breaking balls 9.6% more often this year (51.4%) than he did last season (41.8%).<\/div>\n
      Explain:<\/strong> A pitcher who limits has fastball usage will instead heavily use change-ups, curveballs, sliders, etc. These are far more effective pitches at preventing runs and generating strikeouts.<\/em><\/small><\/div>\n<\/li>\n
    • \n
      Yandy Diaz – Over\/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+100\/-130)<\/strong><\/div>\n
      Yandy Diaz has a 100th percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (43.4%) and has the good fortune of hitting them towards baseball’s 5th-shallowest RF fences today.<\/div>\n
      Explain:<\/strong> This player’s skill set matches up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.<\/em><\/small><\/div>\n<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n

      Betting Trends<\/h3>\n
        \n
      • \n
        Tampa Bay Rays – Run Line -1.5 (+115)<\/strong><\/div>\n
        The Tampa Bay Rays have hit the Run Line in 31 of their last 50 games at home (+19.60 Units \/ 33% ROI)<\/div>\n<\/li>\n
      • \n
        Arizona Diamondbacks – Over\/Under 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total<\/strong><\/div>\n
        The Arizona Diamondbacks have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 25 of their last 35 games (+14.35 Units \/ 35% ROI)<\/div>\n<\/li>\n
      • \n
        Cedric Mullins – Over\/Under 0.5 Singles (+135\/-180)<\/strong><\/div>\n
        Cedric Mullins has hit the Singles Over in 8 of his last 10 games (+7.75 Units \/ 77% ROI)<\/div>\n<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n
        \n
        <\/form>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

        Arizona Diamondbacks @ Tampa Bay Rays +160O\/U: 7.5(-110\/-110)-185 Arizona Diamondbacks Insights Merrill Kelly – Over\/Under 17.5 Pitching Outs (-115\/-115) Merrill Kelly has tallied 17.5 outs per outing this year, checking… <\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":425073,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[3],"tags":[20,283,286,287,289,288,284,630,285,459,636,73,282,281,25,449],"class_list":["post-425072","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-mlb-game-previews","tag-arizona-diamondbacks","tag-bets","tag-betting-guide","tag-betting-line","tag-betting-odds","tag-betting-tips","tag-betting-trends","tag-drew-rasmussen","tag-expert-picks","tag-geraldo-perdomo","tag-merrill-kelly","tag-mlb","tag-odds","tag-picks","tag-tampa-bay-rays","tag-yandy-diaz"],"yoast_head":"\nExplore D-Backs vs Rays Expert Picks and Betting Guide - 6\/28\/2026 - WriteNow\u2122 by EV Analytics<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"Explore our expert betting tips and picks for Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Tampa Bay Rays on June 28, 2026. 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