{"id":425055,"date":"2026-06-28T02:07:05","date_gmt":"2026-06-28T06:07:05","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/evanalytics.com\/articles\/uncategorized\/find-astros-vs-tigers-value-bets-and-betting-line-sunday-june-28th-2026\/"},"modified":"2026-06-28T04:42:03","modified_gmt":"2026-06-28T08:42:03","slug":"find-astros-vs-tigers-value-bets-and-betting-line-sunday-june-28th-2026","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/evanalytics.com\/articles\/mlb-game-previews\/find-astros-vs-tigers-value-bets-and-betting-line-sunday-june-28th-2026\/","title":{"rendered":"Find Astros vs Tigers Value Bets and Betting Line &#8211; Sunday June 28th, 2026"},"content":{"rendered":"<div class=\"eva_article_wrap\">\n<div class=\"eva_team_logos\">\n<div class=\"eva_away_team\"><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/evanalytics.com\/images\/mlb\/HOU.png\" alt=\"Houston Astros logo\" \/><\/p>\n<h4>Houston Astros<\/h4>\n<\/div>\n<div class=\"eva_matchup_symbol\">@<\/div>\n<div class=\"eva_home_team\"><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/evanalytics.com\/images\/mlb\/DET.png\" alt=\"Detroit Tigers logo\" \/><\/p>\n<h4>Detroit Tigers<\/h4>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<div class=\"eva_odds\"><span>-130<\/span><span>O\/U: 8<br \/>(-110\/-110)<\/span><span>+110<\/span><\/div>\n<\/p>\n<h3 style=\"margin: 3rem 0 0 0;\">Houston Astros Insights<\/h3>\n<ul>\n<li>\n<div style=\"display: block; margin: 0.75rem 0;\"><strong>Hunter Brown &#8211; Over\/Under 6.5 Strikeouts (-125\/-105)<\/strong><\/div>\n<div style=\"display: block; margin: 0.25rem 0;\">Given that groundball pitchers are hit hardest by flyball hitters, Hunter Brown (48.7% GB% per the leading projection system, THE BAT) will be a bit disadvantaged in this game with 2 FB hitters in Detroit&#8217;s projected offense.<\/div>\n<div style=\"display: block; margin: 0.25rem 0 1.5rem;\"><small><em><strong>Explain:<\/strong> This mostly has to do with the way the hitter&#8217;s swing plane interacts with the pitch trajectory, and it can create diminished performance across all categories and hidden value few are considering.<\/em><\/small><\/div>\n<\/li>\n<li>\n<div style=\"display: block; margin: 0.75rem 0;\"><strong>Jeremy Pena &#8211; Over\/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+125\/-160)<\/strong><\/div>\n<div style=\"display: block; margin: 0.25rem 0;\">Jeremy Pena&#8217;s exit velocity on flyballs has decreased this year; his 91.4-mph EV last season has dropped to 86.7-mph.<\/div>\n<div style=\"display: block; margin: 0.25rem 0 1.5rem;\"><small><em><strong>Explain:<\/strong> Most home runs are flyballs, and the harder those flyballs are hit, the more often they turn into home runs.  This is a strong indicator of power.<\/em><\/small><\/div>\n<\/li>\n<li>\n<div style=\"display: block; margin: 0.75rem 0;\"><strong>Houston Astros &#8211;  2H Moneyline<\/strong><\/div>\n<div style=\"display: block; margin: 0.25rem 0;\">According to the leading projection system (THE BAT), the Houston Astros&#8217; bullpen profiles as the 8th-best among all teams in the majors.<\/div>\n<div style=\"display: block; margin: 0.25rem 0 1.5rem;\"><small><em><strong>Explain:<\/strong> Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a strong bullpen sneakily creates a tougher matchup for the opposing offense and suppresses a game&#8217;s runs.<\/em><\/small><\/div>\n<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<h3 style=\"margin: 3rem 0 0 0;\">Detroit Tigers Insights<\/h3>\n<ul>\n<li>\n<div style=\"display: block; margin: 0.75rem 0;\"><strong>Jack Flaherty &#8211; Over\/Under 5.5 Strikeouts (-120\/-110)<\/strong><\/div>\n<div style=\"display: block; margin: 0.25rem 0;\">Jack Flaherty has utilized his curveball 5.5% less often this year (19.9%) than he did last year (25.4%).<\/div>\n<div style=\"display: block; margin: 0.25rem 0 1.5rem;\"><small><em><strong>Explain:<\/strong> Because curveballs are one of the most effective pitches to use, a pitcher who alters his pitch mix to use them less often may see less success as a result, particularly if he uses his fastball more instead.<\/em><\/small><\/div>\n<\/li>\n<li>\n<div style=\"display: block; margin: 0.75rem 0;\"><strong>Spencer Torkelson &#8211; Over\/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-155\/+120)<\/strong><\/div>\n<div style=\"display: block; margin: 0.25rem 0;\">Extreme groundball batters like Spencer Torkelson tend to be more successful against extreme flyball pitchers like Hunter Brown.<\/div>\n<div style=\"display: block; margin: 0.25rem 0 1.5rem;\"><small><em><strong>Explain:<\/strong> This mostly has to do with the way the hitter&#8217;s swing plane interacts with the pitch trajectory, and it can create boosted performance across all categories and hidden value few are considering.<\/em><\/small><\/div>\n<\/li>\n<li>\n<div style=\"display: block; margin: 0.75rem 0;\"><strong>Spencer Torkelson &#8211; Over\/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-155\/+120)<\/strong><\/div>\n<div style=\"display: block; margin: 0.25rem 0;\">Spencer Torkelson pulls a high percentage of his flyballs (39.8% \u2014 97th percentile) and has the misfortune of hitting them towards the game&#8217;s 5th-deepest LF fences in today&#8217;s game.<\/div>\n<div style=\"display: block; margin: 0.25rem 0 1.5rem;\"><small><em><strong>Explain:<\/strong> This player&#8217;s skill set does not match up particularly well with the park he&#8217;s in today, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.<\/em><\/small><\/div>\n<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<h3 style=\"margin: 3rem 0 0 0;\">Betting Trends<\/h3>\n<ul>\n<li>\n<div style=\"display: block; margin: 0.75rem 0;\"><strong>Detroit Tigers &#8211; 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline (+115)<\/strong><\/div>\n<div style=\"display: block; margin: 0.25rem 0 1.5rem;\">The Detroit Tigers have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 13 of their last 25 games (+5.75 Units \/ 18% ROI)<\/div>\n<\/li>\n<li>\n<div style=\"display: block; margin: 0.75rem 0;\"><strong>Houston Astros &#8211; Moneyline (-130)<\/strong><\/div>\n<div style=\"display: block; margin: 0.25rem 0 1.5rem;\">The Houston Astros have hit the Moneyline in 15 of their last 25 away games (+6.60 Units \/ 25% ROI)<\/div>\n<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<div>\n<form><input type=\"hidden\" id=\"ga-page-group\" name=\"ga-page-group\" value=\"GAME PREVIEW\"><input type=\"hidden\" id=\"ga-sport\" name=\"ga-sport\" \"value=\"mlb\"><input type=\"hidden\" id=\"ga-title-id\" name=\"ga-title-id\"value=\"2.12.2\"><input type=\"hidden\" id=\"ga-title-group\" name=\"ga-title-group\" value=\"BETTING\"><input type=\"hidden\" id=\"ga-title-cta\" name=\"ga-title-cta\" value=\"1\"><\/form>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Houston Astros @ Detroit Tigers -130O\/U: 8(-110\/-110)+110 Houston Astros Insights Hunter Brown &#8211; Over\/Under 6.5 Strikeouts (-125\/-105) Given that groundball pitchers are hit hardest by flyball hitters, Hunter Brown (48.7%&hellip; <\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":425056,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[3],"tags":[283,286,287,289,288,284,23,285,29,297,425,525,73,282,281,674],"class_list":["post-425055","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-mlb-game-previews","tag-bets","tag-betting-guide","tag-betting-line","tag-betting-odds","tag-betting-tips","tag-betting-trends","tag-detroit-tigers","tag-expert-picks","tag-houston-astros","tag-hunter-brown","tag-jack-flaherty","tag-jeremy-pena","tag-mlb","tag-odds","tag-picks","tag-spencer-torkelson"],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v27.9 - https:\/\/yoast.com\/product\/yoast-seo-wordpress\/ -->\n<title>Find Astros vs Tigers Value Bets and Betting Line - Sunday June 28th, 2026 - WriteNow\u2122 by EV Analytics<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"Explore our expert betting tips and picks for Houston Astros vs. Detroit Tigers on June 28, 2026. 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