{"id":41026,"date":"2024-08-13T02:21:02","date_gmt":"2024-08-13T06:21:02","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/evanalytics.com\/articles\/uncategorized\/check-out-the-team-stats-and-prediction-for-astros-vs-rays-matchup-8-13-2024\/"},"modified":"2024-08-13T18:55:02","modified_gmt":"2024-08-13T22:55:02","slug":"check-out-the-team-stats-and-prediction-for-astros-vs-rays-matchup-8-13-2024","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/evanalytics.com\/articles\/mlb-game-previews\/check-out-the-team-stats-and-prediction-for-astros-vs-rays-matchup-8-13-2024\/","title":{"rendered":"Check Out the Team Stats and Prediction for Astros vs Rays Matchup 8\/13\/2024"},"content":{"rendered":"<div class=\"eva_article_wrap\">\n<div class=\"eva_team_logos\">\n<div class=\"eva_away_team\"><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/evanalytics.com\/images\/mlb\/HOU.png\" alt=\"Houston Astros logo\" \/><\/p>\n<h4>Houston Astros<\/h4>\n<\/div>\n<div class=\"eva_matchup_symbol\">@<\/div>\n<div class=\"eva_home_team\"><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/evanalytics.com\/images\/mlb\/TB.png\" alt=\"Tampa Bay Rays logo\" \/><\/p>\n<h4>Tampa Bay Rays<\/h4>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<div class=\"eva_odds\"><span>-125<\/span><span>O\/U: 7.5<br \/>(-110\/-110)<\/span><span>+105<\/span><\/div>\n<p>On August 13, 2024, the Tampa Bay Rays will host the Houston Astros in a crucial matchup at Tropicana Field. Both teams are looking to enhance their standings, with the Astros currently holding a record of 63-55, which places them firmly in the playoff conversation. The Rays sit at 59-59, struggling to find consistency this season. After their most recent game, which concluded with a 6-1 victory for the Astros, Tampa Bay will be eager to rebound.<\/p>\n<p>Rays\u2019 pitcher Shane Baz, ranked 130th among MLB starters, is set to take the mound. He has struggled this season with a 0-1 record over 6 starts and an ERA of <a href=\"https:\/\/evanalytics.com\/mlb\/player-stats\/earned-run-average\">4.30<\/a>. His last outing on August 8 was uneventful, allowing 4 earned runs in just 4 innings. In contrast, the Astros will counter with Yusei Kikuchi, who has been more effective, boasting a 5-9 record in 24 starts and an average ERA of <a href=\"https:\/\/evanalytics.com\/mlb\/player-stats\/earned-run-average\">4.62<\/a>. Kikuchi pitched well in his last start, allowing just 2 earned runs over 5 innings, with 8 strikeouts.<\/p>\n<p>Offensively, the mismatch is notable. The Astros rank 10th overall in MLB, showcasing a powerful attack led by Yordan Alvarez, who has 25 home runs this season. Meanwhile, the Rays rank 23rd in team batting average and home runs, indicating significant struggles at the plate. The projections suggest a low total of 3.66 runs for Tampa Bay, emphasizing their offensive challenges.<\/p>\n<p>Despite the Rays&#8217; recent defeat, they are slightly favored with a current moneyline of +100, while the Astros sit at -120. The projections indicate a close game, but the Astros\u2019 recent form and offensive prowess could tilt the scales in their favor as they aim for a decisive series win.<\/p>\n<h3 style=\"margin: 3rem 0 0 0;\">Houston Astros Insights<\/h3>\n<ul>\n<li>\n<div style=\"display: block; margin: 0.75rem 0;\"><strong>Yusei Kikuchi &#8211; Over\/Under 7.5 Strikeouts (+105\/-135)<\/strong><\/div>\n<div style=\"display: block; margin: 0.25rem 0;\">Yusei Kikuchi&#8217;s 95-mph fastball velocity this year is in the 83rd percentile among all SPs.<\/div>\n<div style=\"display: block; margin: 0.25rem 0 1.5rem;\"><small><em><strong>Explain:<\/strong> Velocity is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs.<\/em><\/small><\/div>\n<\/li>\n<li>\n<div style=\"display: block; margin: 0.75rem 0;\"><strong>Yordan Alvarez &#8211; Over\/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+105\/-135)<\/strong><\/div>\n<div style=\"display: block; margin: 0.25rem 0;\">Yordan Alvarez is an extreme flyball hitter and squares off against the strong outfield defense of Tampa Bay (#1-best on the slate).<\/div>\n<div style=\"display: block; margin: 0.25rem 0 1.5rem;\"><small><em><strong>Explain:<\/strong> This player&#8217;s skill set matches up poorly with the opposing team&#8217;s defensive strength, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.<\/em><\/small><\/div>\n<\/li>\n<li>\n<div style=\"display: block; margin: 0.75rem 0;\"><strong>Houston Astros &#8211;  2H Moneyline<\/strong><\/div>\n<div style=\"display: block; margin: 0.25rem 0;\">The Houston Astros bullpen profiles as the 6th-best in baseball, via the leading projection system (THE BAT).<\/div>\n<div style=\"display: block; margin: 0.25rem 0 1.5rem;\"><small><em><strong>Explain:<\/strong> Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a strong bullpen sneakily creates a tougher matchup for the opposing offense and suppresses a game&#8217;s runs.<\/em><\/small><\/div>\n<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<h3 style=\"margin: 3rem 0 0 0;\">Tampa Bay Rays Insights<\/h3>\n<ul>\n<li>\n<div style=\"display: block; margin: 0.75rem 0;\"><strong>Shane Baz &#8211; Over\/Under 16.5 Pitching Outs (-120\/-110)<\/strong><\/div>\n<div style=\"display: block; margin: 0.25rem 0;\">Compared to league average, Shane Baz has been given less leash than the average pitcher this year, recording an -10.8 fewer adjusted pitches each game.<\/div>\n<div style=\"display: block; margin: 0.25rem 0 1.5rem;\"><small><em><strong>Explain:<\/strong> Pitchers with a shorter leash are more likely to get pulled earlier in games and record fewer outs.<\/em><\/small><\/div>\n<\/li>\n<li>\n<div style=\"display: block; margin: 0.75rem 0;\"><strong>Josh Lowe &#8211; Over\/Under 0.5 Hits (-105\/-125)<\/strong><\/div>\n<div style=\"display: block; margin: 0.25rem 0;\">Josh Lowe has primarily hit in the top-half of the lineup this season (94% of the time), but he is projected to bat 7th on the lineup card in today&#8217;s game.<\/div>\n<div style=\"display: block; margin: 0.25rem 0 1.5rem;\"><small><em><strong>Explain:<\/strong> The lower in the order a player bats, the fewer plate appearances he will get and the fewer opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market.  A player who hits lower in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting higher.<\/em><\/small><\/div>\n<\/li>\n<li>\n<div style=\"display: block; margin: 0.75rem 0;\"><strong>Yandy Diaz &#8211; Over\/Under 1.5 Total Bases (-105\/-125)<\/strong><\/div>\n<div style=\"display: block; margin: 0.25rem 0;\">Yandy Diaz has a 98th percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (41.3%) and has the good fortune of hitting them towards baseball&#8217;s 5th-shallowest RF fences today.<\/div>\n<div style=\"display: block; margin: 0.25rem 0 1.5rem;\"><small><em><strong>Explain:<\/strong> This player&#8217;s skill set matches up particularly well with the park he&#8217;s in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.<\/em><\/small><\/div>\n<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<h3 style=\"margin: 3rem 0 0 0;\">Betting Trends<\/h3>\n<ul>\n<li>\n<div style=\"display: block; margin: 0.75rem 0;\"><strong>Tampa Bay Rays &#8211; Over\/Under 1.5 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total (-130\/+100)<\/strong><\/div>\n<div style=\"display: block; margin: 0.25rem 0 1.5rem;\">The Tampa Bay Rays have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 71 of their last 117 games (+20.65 Units \/ 15% ROI)<\/div>\n<\/li>\n<li>\n<div style=\"display: block; margin: 0.75rem 0;\"><strong>Over\/Under 7.5 Game Total (-110\/-110)<\/strong><\/div>\n<div style=\"display: block; margin: 0.25rem 0 1.5rem;\">The Houston Astros have hit the Game Total Under in 59 of their last 100 games (+15.90 Units \/ 14% ROI)<\/div>\n<\/li>\n<li>\n<div style=\"display: block; margin: 0.75rem 0;\"><strong>Yainer Diaz &#8211; Over\/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+120\/-150)<\/strong><\/div>\n<div style=\"display: block; margin: 0.25rem 0 1.5rem;\">Yainer Diaz has hit the Total Bases Over in 13 of his last 17 games (+11.10 Units \/ 63% ROI)<\/div>\n<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<div>\n<form><input type=\"hidden\" id=\"ga-page-group\" name=\"ga-page-group\" value=\"GAME PREVIEW\"><input type=\"hidden\" id=\"ga-sport\" name=\"ga-sport\" \"value=\"mlb\"><input type=\"hidden\" id=\"ga-title-id\" name=\"ga-title-id\"value=\"1.18.2\"><input type=\"hidden\" id=\"ga-title-group\" name=\"ga-title-group\" value=\"PREVIEW\"><input type=\"hidden\" id=\"ga-title-cta\" name=\"ga-title-cta\" value=\"1\"><\/form>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>On August 13, 2024, the Tampa Bay Rays will host the Houston Astros in a crucial matchup at Tropicana Field. Both teams are looking to enhance their standings, with the&hellip; <\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":41027,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[3],"tags":[247,633,250,248,251,29,241,242,249,243,73,246,239,240,253,438,245,25,252,244,449,163],"class_list":["post-41026","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-mlb-game-previews","tag-analysis","tag-dylan-carlson","tag-game-breakdown","tag-game-forecast","tag-head-to-head","tag-houston-astros","tag-insights","tag-match","tag-match-preview","tag-matchup","tag-mlb","tag-prediction","tag-preview","tag-rankings","tag-score-prediction","tag-shane-baz","tag-simulation","tag-tampa-bay-rays","tag-team-stats","tag-winning-probability","tag-yandy-diaz","tag-yordan-alvarez"],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v27.5 - https:\/\/yoast.com\/product\/yoast-seo-wordpress\/ -->\n<title>Check Out the Team Stats and Prediction for Astros vs Rays Matchup 8\/13\/2024 - WriteNow\u2122 by EV Analytics<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"Get an in-depth game preview and prediction for Houston Astros vs. Tampa Bay Rays on August 13, 2024. 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