{"id":392401,"date":"2026-06-03T05:52:03","date_gmt":"2026-06-03T09:52:03","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/evanalytics.com\/articles\/uncategorized\/check-out-picks-and-betting-guide-for-pirates-vs-astros-6-03-26\/"},"modified":"2026-06-03T08:03:07","modified_gmt":"2026-06-03T12:03:07","slug":"check-out-picks-and-betting-guide-for-pirates-vs-astros-6-03-26","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/evanalytics.com\/articles\/mlb-game-previews\/check-out-picks-and-betting-guide-for-pirates-vs-astros-6-03-26\/","title":{"rendered":"Check Out Picks and Betting Guide for Pirates vs Astros – 6\/03\/26"},"content":{"rendered":"
\n
\n
\"Pittsburgh<\/p>\n

Pittsburgh Pirates<\/h4>\n<\/div>\n
@<\/div>\n
\"Houston<\/p>\n

Houston Astros<\/h4>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
-150<\/span>O\/U: 7.5
(-110\/-110)<\/span>+130<\/span><\/div>\n<\/p>\n

Pittsburgh Pirates Insights<\/h3>\n
    \n
  • \n
    Paul Skenes – Over\/Under 7.5 Strikeouts (+120\/-155)<\/strong><\/div>\n
    Paul Skenes’s fastball velocity has fallen 1 mph this year (96.5 mph) below where it was last year (97.5 mph).<\/div>\n
    Explain:<\/strong> Velocity is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs, so a pitcher whose velocity decreases will likely see worse results.<\/em><\/small><\/div>\n<\/li>\n
  • \n
    Henry Davis – Over\/Under 0.5 Hits (-130\/+100)<\/strong><\/div>\n
    Henry Davis has experienced some negative variance in regards to his batting average since the start of last season; his .158 rate is deflated compared to his .221 Expected Batting Average, based on the leading projection system (THE BAT X)’s interpretation of Statcast data.<\/div>\n
    Explain:<\/strong> xBA uses highly advanced Statcast data to measure a player’s batting average ability more accurately than actual batting average can.<\/em><\/small><\/div>\n<\/li>\n
  • \n
    Pittsburgh Pirates – 2H Moneyline<\/strong><\/div>\n
    According to the leading projection system (THE BAT), the Pittsburgh Pirates’ bullpen ranks as the 8th-best out of all major league teams.<\/div>\n
    Explain:<\/strong> Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a strong bullpen sneakily creates a tougher matchup for the opposing offense and suppresses a game’s runs.<\/em><\/small><\/div>\n<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n

    Houston Astros Insights<\/h3>\n
      \n
    • \n
      Spencer Arrighetti – Over\/Under 16.5 Pitching Outs (-120\/-110)<\/strong><\/div>\n
      Spencer Arrighetti has recorded 17.6 outs per outing this year, grading out in the 85th percentile.<\/div>\n
      Explain:<\/strong> A pitcher who averages more outs per start than his Outs prop may be a good bet to go over, and visa-versa for the under.<\/em><\/small><\/div>\n<\/li>\n
    • \n
      Yordan Alvarez – Over\/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+110\/-145)<\/strong><\/div>\n
      Yordan Alvarez has made significant strides with his Barrel% recently, upping his 20.2% seasonal rate to 36% in the last two weeks’ worth of games.<\/div>\n
      Explain:<\/strong> Barrel% measures how often a player hits the ball at the optimal exit velocity and launch angle and is a terrific measure of underlying power.<\/em><\/small><\/div>\n<\/li>\n
    • \n
      Isaac Paredes – Over\/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-130\/+100)<\/strong><\/div>\n
      Isaac Paredes pulls a lot of his flyballs (47.5% \u2014 100th percentile) and has the good fortune of hitting them towards the league’s 2nd-shallowest LF fences in today’s matchup.<\/div>\n
      Explain:<\/strong> This player’s skill set matches up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.<\/em><\/small><\/div>\n<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n

      Betting Trends<\/h3>\n
        \n
      • \n
        Houston Astros – Over\/Under 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total<\/strong><\/div>\n
        The Houston Astros have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Over in 11 of their last 15 games (+7.30 Units \/ 43% ROI)<\/div>\n<\/li>\n
      • \n
        Pittsburgh Pirates – Run Line -1.5 (+110)<\/strong><\/div>\n
        The Pittsburgh Pirates have hit the Run Line in 31 of their last 50 away games (+9.35 Units \/ 14% ROI)<\/div>\n<\/li>\n
      • \n
        Jared Triolo – Over\/Under 1.5 Hits Runs and RBIs (+120\/-155)<\/strong><\/div>\n
        Jared Triolo has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Under in 15 of his last 20 away games (+9.25 Units \/ 35% ROI)<\/div>\n<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n
        \n
        <\/form>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

        Pittsburgh Pirates @ Houston Astros -150O\/U: 7.5(-110\/-110)+130 Pittsburgh Pirates Insights Paul Skenes – Over\/Under 7.5 Strikeouts (+120\/-155) Paul Skenes’s fastball velocity has fallen 1 mph this year (96.5 mph) below… <\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":392402,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[3],"tags":[283,286,287,289,288,284,285,878,29,80,73,282,130,281,9,102,163],"class_list":["post-392401","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-mlb-game-previews","tag-bets","tag-betting-guide","tag-betting-line","tag-betting-odds","tag-betting-tips","tag-betting-trends","tag-expert-picks","tag-henry-davis","tag-houston-astros","tag-isaac-paredes","tag-mlb","tag-odds","tag-paul-skenes","tag-picks","tag-pittsburgh-pirates","tag-spencer-arrighetti","tag-yordan-alvarez"],"yoast_head":"\nCheck Out Picks and Betting Guide for Pirates vs Astros - 6\/03\/26 - WriteNow\u2122 by EV Analytics<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"Explore our expert betting tips and picks for Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Houston Astros on June 3, 2026. 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