{"id":370931,"date":"2026-05-17T02:24:05","date_gmt":"2026-05-17T06:24:05","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/evanalytics.com\/articles\/uncategorized\/expert-player-predictions-for-reds-vs-guardians-sunday-may-17-2026\/"},"modified":"2026-05-17T20:07:03","modified_gmt":"2026-05-18T00:07:03","slug":"expert-player-predictions-for-reds-vs-guardians-sunday-may-17-2026","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/evanalytics.com\/articles\/mlb-game-previews\/expert-player-predictions-for-reds-vs-guardians-sunday-may-17-2026\/","title":{"rendered":"Expert Player Predictions for Reds vs Guardians &#8211; Sunday, May 17, 2026"},"content":{"rendered":"<div class=\"eva_article_wrap\">\n<div class=\"eva_team_logos\">\n<div class=\"eva_away_team\"><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/evanalytics.com\/images\/mlb\/CIN.png\" alt=\"Cincinnati Reds logo\" \/><\/p>\n<h4>Cincinnati Reds<\/h4>\n<\/div>\n<div class=\"eva_matchup_symbol\">@<\/div>\n<div class=\"eva_home_team\"><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/evanalytics.com\/images\/mlb\/CLE.png\" alt=\"Cleveland Guardians logo\" \/><\/p>\n<h4>Cleveland Guardians<\/h4>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<div class=\"eva_odds\"><span>+135<\/span><span>O\/U: 8.5<br \/>(-120\/+100)<\/span><span>-160<\/span><\/div>\n<\/p>\n<h3 style=\"margin: 3rem 0 0 0;\">Cincinnati Reds Insights<\/h3>\n<ul>\n<li>\n<div style=\"display: block; margin: 0.75rem 0;\"><strong>Brady Singer &#8211; Over\/Under 3.5 Strikeouts (-130\/+100)<\/strong><\/div>\n<div style=\"display: block; margin: 0.25rem 0;\">Brady Singer&#8217;s 90.3-mph velocity on his fastball this year is a substantial 1.3-mph fall off from last season&#8217;s 91.6-mph mark.<\/div>\n<div style=\"display: block; margin: 0.25rem 0 1.5rem;\"><small><em><strong>Explain:<\/strong> Velocity is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs, so a pitcher whose velocity decreases will likely see worse results.<\/em><\/small><\/div>\n<\/li>\n<li>\n<div style=\"display: block; margin: 0.75rem 0;\"><strong>Nate Lowe &#8211; Over\/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-140\/+110)<\/strong><\/div>\n<div style=\"display: block; margin: 0.25rem 0;\">Based on Statcast data, the leading projection system (THE BAT X)&#8217;s version of Expected HR per 600 plate appearances (11.3) provides evidence that Nathaniel Lowe has been lucky since the start of last season with his 20.3 actual HR\/600.<\/div>\n<div style=\"display: block; margin: 0.25rem 0 1.5rem;\"><small><em><strong>Explain:<\/strong> xHR uses highly advanced Statcast data to measure a player&#8217;s home run ability more accurately than actual home runs can.<\/em><\/small><\/div>\n<\/li>\n<li>\n<div style=\"display: block; margin: 0.75rem 0;\"><strong>Cincinnati Reds &#8211;  2H Moneyline<\/strong><\/div>\n<div style=\"display: block; margin: 0.25rem 0;\">The Cincinnati Reds bullpen profiles as the 9th-worst in the league, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT).<\/div>\n<div style=\"display: block; margin: 0.25rem 0 1.5rem;\"><small><em><strong>Explain:<\/strong> Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a weak bullpen sneakily creates an easier matchup for the opposing offense and boosts a game&#8217;s runs.<\/em><\/small><\/div>\n<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<h3 style=\"margin: 3rem 0 0 0;\">Cleveland Guardians Insights<\/h3>\n<ul>\n<li>\n<div style=\"display: block; margin: 0.75rem 0;\"><strong>Gavin Williams &#8211; Over\/Under 17.5 Pitching Outs (-170\/+130)<\/strong><\/div>\n<div style=\"display: block; margin: 0.25rem 0;\">Compared to average, Gavin Williams has been given an above-average leash this year, tallying an additional 5.9 adjusted pitches each start.<\/div>\n<div style=\"display: block; margin: 0.25rem 0 1.5rem;\"><small><em><strong>Explain:<\/strong> Pitchers with a longer leash are more likely to go deeper into games and record more outs.<\/em><\/small><\/div>\n<\/li>\n<li>\n<div style=\"display: block; margin: 0.75rem 0;\"><strong>Steven Kwan &#8211; Over\/Under 0.5 Hits (-205\/+155)<\/strong><\/div>\n<div style=\"display: block; margin: 0.25rem 0;\">Steven Kwan has primarily hit in the top-half of the lineup this season (98% of the time), but he is projected to hit 6th on the lineup card in this matchup.<\/div>\n<div style=\"display: block; margin: 0.25rem 0 1.5rem;\"><small><em><strong>Explain:<\/strong> The lower in the order a player bats, the fewer plate appearances he will get and the fewer opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market.  A player who hits lower in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting higher.<\/em><\/small><\/div>\n<\/li>\n<li>\n<div style=\"display: block; margin: 0.75rem 0;\"><strong>Jose Ramirez &#8211; Over\/Under 1.5 Total Bases (-105\/-125)<\/strong><\/div>\n<div style=\"display: block; margin: 0.25rem 0;\">Jose Ramirez pulls a high percentage of his flyballs (42.5% \u2014 99th percentile) and sets up very well considering he&#8217;ll be hitting them towards baseball&#8217;s 6th-shallowest RF fences in today&#8217;s matchup.<\/div>\n<div style=\"display: block; margin: 0.25rem 0 1.5rem;\"><small><em><strong>Explain:<\/strong> This player&#8217;s skill set matches up particularly well with the park he&#8217;s in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.<\/em><\/small><\/div>\n<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<h3 style=\"margin: 3rem 0 0 0;\">Betting Trends<\/h3>\n<ul>\n<li>\n<div style=\"display: block; margin: 0.75rem 0;\"><strong>Over\/Under 8.5 Game Total (-120\/+100)<\/strong><\/div>\n<div style=\"display: block; margin: 0.25rem 0 1.5rem;\">The Cleveland Guardians have hit the Game Total Under in 23 of their last 40 games at home (+5.10 Units \/ 11% ROI)<\/div>\n<\/li>\n<li>\n<div style=\"display: block; margin: 0.75rem 0;\"><strong>Over\/Under 8.5 Game Total (-120\/+100)<\/strong><\/div>\n<div style=\"display: block; margin: 0.25rem 0 1.5rem;\">The Cincinnati Reds have hit the Game Total Over in 17 of their last 23 games (+10.20 Units \/ 40% ROI)<\/div>\n<\/li>\n<li>\n<div style=\"display: block; margin: 0.75rem 0;\"><strong>Spencer Steer &#8211; Over\/Under 0.5 Hits (-180\/+135)<\/strong><\/div>\n<div style=\"display: block; margin: 0.25rem 0 1.5rem;\">Spencer Steer has hit the Hits Over in 21 of his last 25 games (+14.65 Units \/ 34% ROI)<\/div>\n<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<div>\n<form><input type=\"hidden\" id=\"ga-page-group\" name=\"ga-page-group\" value=\"GAME PREVIEW\"><input type=\"hidden\" id=\"ga-sport\" name=\"ga-sport\" \"value=\"mlb\"><input type=\"hidden\" id=\"ga-title-id\" name=\"ga-title-id\"value=\"4.15.1\"><input type=\"hidden\" id=\"ga-title-group\" name=\"ga-title-group\" value=\"PLAYER\"><input type=\"hidden\" id=\"ga-title-cta\" name=\"ga-title-cta\" value=\"0\"><\/form>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Cincinnati Reds @ Cleveland Guardians +135O\/U: 8.5(-120\/+100)-160 Cincinnati Reds Insights Brady Singer &#8211; Over\/Under 3.5 Strikeouts (-130\/+100) Brady Singer&#8217;s 90.3-mph velocity on his fastball this year is a substantial 1.3-mph&hellip; <\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":370932,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[3],"tags":[34,15,6,146,462,73,231,234,230,229,227,228,225,233,232,226,1052,377],"class_list":["post-370931","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-mlb-game-previews","tag-brady-singer","tag-cincinnati-reds","tag-cleveland-guardians","tag-gavin-williams","tag-jose-ramirez","tag-mlb","tag-player-analysis","tag-player-insights","tag-player-predictions","tag-player-prop-bets","tag-player-prop-odds","tag-player-prop-picks","tag-player-props","tag-player-rankings","tag-player-stats","tag-player-trends","tag-sal-stewart","tag-steven-kwan"],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v27.7 - https:\/\/yoast.com\/product\/yoast-seo-wordpress\/ -->\n<title>Expert Player Predictions for Reds vs Guardians - Sunday, May 17, 2026 - WriteNow\u2122 by EV Analytics<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"Discover the top player props, prop odds, player picks, and prop bets for the Cincinnati Reds vs. Cleveland Guardians matchup on May 17, 2026. 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