{"id":36415,"date":"2024-08-09T03:56:02","date_gmt":"2024-08-09T07:56:02","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/evanalytics.com\/articles\/uncategorized\/check-out-the-match-preview-reds-vs-brewers-game-forecast-and-analysis-8-09-2024\/"},"modified":"2024-08-09T23:33:02","modified_gmt":"2024-08-10T03:33:02","slug":"check-out-the-match-preview-reds-vs-brewers-game-forecast-and-analysis-8-09-2024","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/evanalytics.com\/articles\/mlb-game-previews\/check-out-the-match-preview-reds-vs-brewers-game-forecast-and-analysis-8-09-2024\/","title":{"rendered":"Check Out the Match Preview: Reds vs Brewers Game Forecast and Analysis &#8211; 8\/09\/2024"},"content":{"rendered":"<div class=\"eva_article_wrap\">\n<div class=\"eva_team_logos\">\n<div class=\"eva_away_team\"><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/evanalytics.com\/images\/mlb\/CIN.png\" alt=\"Cincinnati Reds logo\" \/><\/p>\n<h4>Cincinnati Reds<\/h4>\n<\/div>\n<div class=\"eva_matchup_symbol\">@<\/div>\n<div class=\"eva_home_team\"><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/evanalytics.com\/images\/mlb\/MIL.png\" alt=\"Milwaukee Brewers logo\" \/><\/p>\n<h4>Milwaukee Brewers<\/h4>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<div class=\"eva_odds\"><span>+135<\/span><span>O\/U: 8.5<br \/>(-110\/-110)<\/span><span>-155<\/span><\/div>\n<p>As the Milwaukee Brewers prepare to face off against the Cincinnati Reds on August 9, 2024, both teams find themselves in contrasting positions within the National League Central. The Brewers boast a solid record of 65-49, while the Reds sit at 56-59, highlighting the Brewers&#8217; strong season. The stakes are high as this matchup marks the first game in their series, and both teams come off impressive wins: the Brewers defeated the Braves 16-7, while the Reds topped the Marlins 10-4.<\/p>\n<p>Milwaukee will send right-hander Aaron Civale to the mound. Although Civale&#8217;s season has been underwhelming with a 2-8 record and a 5.14 <a href=\"https:\/\/evanalytics.com\/mlb\/player-stats\/earned-run-average\">ERA<\/a>, the projections suggest he may see better results moving forward due to his 4.24 xFIP, indicating he has been somewhat unlucky. He projects to pitch 5.3 innings while allowing 2.4 earned runs, but his tendency to give up 4.8 hits and 1.5 walks per outing could be a concern against a Reds offense that, despite being average overall, features some dangerous hitters.<\/p>\n<p>Carson Spiers, also a right-hander, will take the mound for Cincinnati. Spiers has had a decent season with a 3.59 <a href=\"https:\/\/evanalytics.com\/mlb\/player-stats\/earned-run-average\">ERA<\/a> but has struggled with consistency, as reflected in his status as one of the worst pitchers in MLB according to advanced metrics. He projects to pitch just 4.9 innings while allowing 2.8 earned runs, which could be problematic against a Brewers offense rated 8th best in MLB, particularly when they rank 5th in batting average.<\/p>\n<p>The leading MLB projection system, THE BAT X, views the Brewers as significant favorites, projecting them to score 5.03 runs on average while giving the Reds an average projection of 4.26 runs. With the Brewers&#8217; offensive depth and Civale&#8217;s potential for improvement, they look poised to capitalize on their current momentum in this pivotal matchup.<\/p>\n<h3 style=\"margin: 3rem 0 0 0;\">Cincinnati Reds Insights<\/h3>\n<ul>\n<li>\n<div style=\"display: block; margin: 0.75rem 0;\"><strong>Cincinnati Reds &#8211;  1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline (+115)<\/strong><\/div>\n<div style=\"display: block; margin: 0.25rem 0;\">With a 1.13 difference between Carson Spiers&#8217;s 3.59 ERA and his 4.72 estimated true talent ERA (via the leading projection system, THE BAT), it&#8217;s safe to say he&#8217;s been one of the most fortunate pitchers in the game this year and figures to see worse results in future games.<\/div>\n<div style=\"display: block; margin: 0.25rem 0 1.5rem;\"><small><em><strong>Explain:<\/strong> Pitchers that are overperforming should be expected to pitch worse going forward, which can create value if the lines are too heavily weighing the lucky, to-date overperformance.<\/em><\/small><\/div>\n<\/li>\n<li>\n<div style=\"display: block; margin: 0.75rem 0;\"><strong>Jake Fraley &#8211; Over\/Under 0.5 Hits (-180\/+135)<\/strong><\/div>\n<div style=\"display: block; margin: 0.25rem 0;\">Jake Fraley is projected to hit 7th in the lineup today, which would be a downgrade from his 73% rate of hitting in the top-half of the batting order this year.<\/div>\n<div style=\"display: block; margin: 0.25rem 0 1.5rem;\"><small><em><strong>Explain:<\/strong> The lower in the order a player bats, the fewer plate appearances he will get and the fewer opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market.  A player who hits lower in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting higher.<\/em><\/small><\/div>\n<\/li>\n<li>\n<div style=\"display: block; margin: 0.75rem 0;\"><strong>Cincinnati Reds &#8211;  2H Moneyline<\/strong><\/div>\n<div style=\"display: block; margin: 0.25rem 0;\">According to the leading projection system (THE BAT), the Cincinnati Reds&#8217; bullpen projects as the 5th-worst out of all the teams in the league.<\/div>\n<div style=\"display: block; margin: 0.25rem 0 1.5rem;\"><small><em><strong>Explain:<\/strong> Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a weak bullpen sneakily creates an easier matchup for the opposing offense and boosts a game&#8217;s runs.<\/em><\/small><\/div>\n<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<h3 style=\"margin: 3rem 0 0 0;\">Milwaukee Brewers Insights<\/h3>\n<ul>\n<li>\n<div style=\"display: block; margin: 0.75rem 0;\"><strong>Milwaukee Brewers &#8211;  Moneyline (-155)<\/strong><\/div>\n<div style=\"display: block; margin: 0.25rem 0;\">Among all the teams on the slate today, the 2nd-strongest infield defense belongs to the Milwaukee Brewers.<\/div>\n<div style=\"display: block; margin: 0.25rem 0 1.5rem;\"><small><em><strong>Explain:<\/strong> Defense is an integral part of preventing hits and runs.<\/em><\/small><\/div>\n<\/li>\n<li>\n<div style=\"display: block; margin: 0.75rem 0;\"><strong>Sal Frelick &#8211; Over\/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-190\/+145)<\/strong><\/div>\n<div style=\"display: block; margin: 0.25rem 0;\">Sal Frelick has been cold in recent games, with his seasonal exit velocity of 83.7-mph dropping to 79.3-mph in the last two weeks&#8217; worth of games.<\/div>\n<div style=\"display: block; margin: 0.25rem 0 1.5rem;\"><small><em><strong>Explain:<\/strong> Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.<\/em><\/small><\/div>\n<\/li>\n<li>\n<div style=\"display: block; margin: 0.75rem 0;\"><strong>William Contreras &#8211; Over\/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+120\/-150)<\/strong><\/div>\n<div style=\"display: block; margin: 0.25rem 0;\">William Contreras hits a high percentage of his flyballs to center field (38.9% \u2014 91st percentile) and sets up very well considering he&#8217;ll be hitting out towards MLB&#8217;s 8th-shallowest CF fences in today&#8217;s matchup.<\/div>\n<div style=\"display: block; margin: 0.25rem 0 1.5rem;\"><small><em><strong>Explain:<\/strong> This player&#8217;s skill set matches up particularly well with the park he&#8217;s in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.<\/em><\/small><\/div>\n<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<h3 style=\"margin: 3rem 0 0 0;\">Betting Trends<\/h3>\n<ul>\n<li>\n<div style=\"display: block; margin: 0.75rem 0;\"><strong>Over\/Under 8.5 Game Total (-110\/-110)<\/strong><\/div>\n<div style=\"display: block; margin: 0.25rem 0 1.5rem;\">The Milwaukee Brewers have hit the Game Total Over in 28 of their last 47 games at home (+11.75 Units \/ 23% ROI)<\/div>\n<\/li>\n<li>\n<div style=\"display: block; margin: 0.75rem 0;\"><strong>Cincinnati Reds &#8211; Run Line +1.5 (-160)<\/strong><\/div>\n<div style=\"display: block; margin: 0.25rem 0 1.5rem;\">The Cincinnati Reds have hit the Run Line in 59 of their last 104 games (+7.80 Units \/ 6% ROI)<\/div>\n<\/li>\n<li>\n<div style=\"display: block; margin: 0.75rem 0;\"><strong>Jonathan India &#8211; Over\/Under 0.5 Singles (+100\/-130)<\/strong><\/div>\n<div style=\"display: block; margin: 0.25rem 0 1.5rem;\">Jonathan India has hit the Singles Under in 22 of his last 32 games (+11.85 Units \/ 33% ROI)<\/div>\n<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<div>\n<form><input type=\"hidden\" id=\"ga-page-group\" name=\"ga-page-group\" value=\"GAME PREVIEW\"><input type=\"hidden\" id=\"ga-sport\" name=\"ga-sport\" \"value=\"mlb\"><input type=\"hidden\" id=\"ga-title-id\" name=\"ga-title-id\"value=\"1.2.2\"><input type=\"hidden\" id=\"ga-title-group\" name=\"ga-title-group\" value=\"PREVIEW\"><input type=\"hidden\" id=\"ga-title-cta\" name=\"ga-title-cta\" value=\"1\"><\/form>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>As the Milwaukee Brewers prepare to face off against the Cincinnati Reds on August 9, 2024, both teams find themselves in contrasting positions within the National League Central. The Brewers&hellip; <\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":36416,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[3],"tags":[247,453,15,250,248,251,241,66,242,249,243,22,73,246,239,240,585,253,245,252,335,244],"class_list":["post-36415","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-mlb-game-previews","tag-analysis","tag-carson-spiers","tag-cincinnati-reds","tag-game-breakdown","tag-game-forecast","tag-head-to-head","tag-insights","tag-jeimer-candelario","tag-match","tag-match-preview","tag-matchup","tag-milwaukee-brewers","tag-mlb","tag-prediction","tag-preview","tag-rankings","tag-sal-frelick","tag-score-prediction","tag-simulation","tag-team-stats","tag-william-contreras","tag-winning-probability"],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v27.4 - https:\/\/yoast.com\/product\/yoast-seo-wordpress\/ -->\n<title>Check Out the Match Preview: Reds vs Brewers Game Forecast and Analysis - 8\/09\/2024 - WriteNow\u2122 by EV Analytics<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"Get an in-depth game preview and prediction for Cincinnati Reds vs. Milwaukee Brewers on August 9, 2024. 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