{"id":361209,"date":"2026-05-09T05:06:04","date_gmt":"2026-05-09T09:06:04","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/evanalytics.com\/articles\/uncategorized\/mets-vs-d-backs-picks-and-odds-may-09-2026\/"},"modified":"2026-05-09T23:47:04","modified_gmt":"2026-05-10T03:47:04","slug":"mets-vs-d-backs-picks-and-odds-may-09-2026","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/evanalytics.com\/articles\/mlb-game-previews\/mets-vs-d-backs-picks-and-odds-may-09-2026\/","title":{"rendered":"Mets vs D-Backs Picks and Odds – May 09, 2026"},"content":{"rendered":"
\n
\n
\"New<\/p>\n

New York Mets<\/h4>\n<\/div>\n
@<\/div>\n
\"Arizona<\/p>\n

Arizona Diamondbacks<\/h4>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
-110<\/span>O\/U: 9.5
(-110\/-110)<\/span>-110<\/span><\/div>\n<\/p>\n

New York Mets Insights<\/h3>\n
    \n
  • \n
    Clay Holmes – Over\/Under 3.5 Strikeouts (-120\/-110)<\/strong><\/div>\n
    Clay Holmes’s sinker percentage has spiked by 9.1% from last year to this one (40.4% to 49.5%) .<\/div>\n
    Explain:<\/strong> Sinkers are the easiest pitches to hit and generate the fewest strikeouts, so a pitcher who begins to use his sinker more often will likely be less effective than he used to be.<\/em><\/small><\/div>\n<\/li>\n
  • \n
    Mark Vientos – Over\/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+125\/-160)<\/strong><\/div>\n
    In today’s matchup, Mark Vientos is at a disadvantage facing the league’s 3rd-deepest CF center field fences given that he hits his flyballs towards center field at a 40.6% rate (99th percentile).<\/div>\n
    Explain:<\/strong> This player’s skill set does not match up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.<\/em><\/small><\/div>\n<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n

    Arizona Diamondbacks Insights<\/h3>\n
      \n
    • \n
      Arizona Diamondbacks – 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline (-115)<\/strong><\/div>\n
      Merrill Kelly was firing on all cylinders in his last outing and conceded 2 ER.<\/div>\n
      Explain:<\/strong> A pitcher who was strong in his last outing may be sharp once again in his next outing.<\/em><\/small><\/div>\n<\/li>\n
    • \n
      Gabriel Moreno – Over\/Under 0.5 Hits (-205\/+155)<\/strong><\/div>\n
      Gabriel Moreno is projected to hit 8th in the lineup in today’s game, which would be a downgrade from his 75% rate of hitting in the top-half of the lineup this year.<\/div>\n
      Explain:<\/strong> The lower in the order a player bats, the fewer plate appearances he will get and the fewer opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits lower in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting higher.<\/em><\/small><\/div>\n<\/li>\n
    • \n
      <\/strong><\/div>\n
      Per the leading projection system (THE BAT X), the offense with the least strikeout-heavy lineup today is the Arizona Diamondbacks with a 19.4% underlying K%.<\/div>\n
      Explain:<\/strong> THE BAT X analyzes each player in today’s specific lineup to figure out which teams have the least inherent strikeout potential for the opposing pitcher.<\/em><\/small><\/div>\n<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n

      Betting Trends<\/h3>\n
        \n
      • \n
        Arizona Diamondbacks – Over\/Under 2.5 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total (-110\/-120)<\/strong><\/div>\n
        The Arizona Diamondbacks have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 20 of their last 25 games at home (+14.40 Units \/ 48% ROI)<\/div>\n<\/li>\n
      • \n
        New York Mets – Over\/Under 4.5 Team Total (-125\/-105)<\/strong><\/div>\n
        The New York Mets have hit the Team Total Under in 15 of their last 19 games (+10.75 Units \/ 49% ROI)<\/div>\n<\/li>\n
      • \n
        Corbin Carroll – Over\/Under 0.5 Hits (-245\/+185)<\/strong><\/div>\n
        Corbin Carroll has hit the Hits Under in 13 of his last 20 games at home (+11.00 Units \/ 43% ROI)<\/div>\n<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n
        \n
        <\/form>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

        New York Mets @ Arizona Diamondbacks -110O\/U: 9.5(-110\/-110)-110 New York Mets Insights Clay Holmes – Over\/Under 3.5 Strikeouts (-120\/-110) Clay Holmes’s sinker percentage has spiked by 9.1% from last year… <\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":361210,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[3],"tags":[20,283,286,287,289,288,284,819,285,471,505,157,73,33,282,281],"class_list":["post-361209","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-mlb-game-previews","tag-arizona-diamondbacks","tag-bets","tag-betting-guide","tag-betting-line","tag-betting-odds","tag-betting-tips","tag-betting-trends","tag-clay-holmes","tag-expert-picks","tag-gabriel-moreno","tag-luis-torrens","tag-mark-vientos","tag-mlb","tag-new-york-mets","tag-odds","tag-picks"],"yoast_head":"\nMets vs D-Backs Picks and Odds - May 09, 2026 - WriteNow\u2122 by EV Analytics<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"Explore our expert betting tips and picks for New York Mets vs. Arizona Diamondbacks on May 9, 2026. 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