{"id":355805,"date":"2026-05-05T03:09:05","date_gmt":"2026-05-05T07:09:05","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/evanalytics.com\/articles\/uncategorized\/discover-betting-trends-and-expert-picks-for-reds-vs-cubs-5-5-2026\/"},"modified":"2026-05-05T18:22:03","modified_gmt":"2026-05-05T22:22:03","slug":"discover-betting-trends-and-expert-picks-for-reds-vs-cubs-5-5-2026","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/evanalytics.com\/articles\/mlb-game-previews\/discover-betting-trends-and-expert-picks-for-reds-vs-cubs-5-5-2026\/","title":{"rendered":"Discover Betting Trends and Expert Picks for Reds vs Cubs &#8211; 5\/5\/2026"},"content":{"rendered":"<div class=\"eva_article_wrap\">\n<div class=\"eva_team_logos\">\n<div class=\"eva_away_team\"><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/evanalytics.com\/images\/mlb\/CIN.png\" alt=\"Cincinnati Reds logo\" \/><\/p>\n<h4>Cincinnati Reds<\/h4>\n<\/div>\n<div class=\"eva_matchup_symbol\">@<\/div>\n<div class=\"eva_home_team\"><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/evanalytics.com\/images\/mlb\/CHC.png\" alt=\"Chicago Cubs logo\" \/><\/p>\n<h4>Chicago Cubs<\/h4>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<div class=\"eva_odds\"><span>+145<\/span><span>O\/U: 8<br \/>(-110\/-110)<\/span><span>-165<\/span><\/div>\n<\/p>\n<h3 style=\"margin: 3rem 0 0 0;\">Cincinnati Reds Insights<\/h3>\n<ul>\n<li>\n<div style=\"display: block; margin: 0.75rem 0;\"><strong>Andrew Abbott &#8211; Over\/Under 15.5 Pitching Outs (-130\/+100)<\/strong><\/div>\n<div style=\"display: block; margin: 0.25rem 0;\">Andrew Abbott has been granted a longer leash than the typical pitcher since the start of last season, tallying 3.2 more adjusted pitches-per-game than the average starting pitcher.<\/div>\n<div style=\"display: block; margin: 0.25rem 0 1.5rem;\"><small><em><strong>Explain:<\/strong> Pitchers with a longer leash are more likely to go deeper into games and record more outs.<\/em><\/small><\/div>\n<\/li>\n<li>\n<div style=\"display: block; margin: 0.75rem 0;\"><strong>Elly De La Cruz &#8211; Over\/Under 0.5 Hits (-195\/+150)<\/strong><\/div>\n<div style=\"display: block; margin: 0.25rem 0;\">Chicago&#8217;s #1-ranked outfield defense on the slate poses a formidable challenge for Elly De La Cruz, who tends to hit a lot of flyballs.<\/div>\n<div style=\"display: block; margin: 0.25rem 0 1.5rem;\"><small><em><strong>Explain:<\/strong> This player&#8217;s skill set matches up poorly with the opposing team&#8217;s defensive strength, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.<\/em><\/small><\/div>\n<\/li>\n<li>\n<div style=\"display: block; margin: 0.75rem 0;\"><strong><\/strong><\/div>\n<div style=\"display: block; margin: 0.25rem 0;\">The Cincinnati Reds have 3 bats in their projected batting order today with a high (i.e.  over 27%) underlying K% (per the leading projection system, THE BAT X) (Elly De La Cruz, Matt McLain, Tyler Stephenson).<\/div>\n<div style=\"display: block; margin: 0.25rem 0 1.5rem;\"><small><em><strong>Explain:<\/strong> Teams that have multiple high-strikeout hitters will make it much easier for the opposing pitcher to record strikeouts <\/em><\/small><\/div>\n<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<h3 style=\"margin: 3rem 0 0 0;\">Chicago Cubs Insights<\/h3>\n<ul>\n<li>\n<div style=\"display: block; margin: 0.75rem 0;\"><strong>Jameson Taillon &#8211; Over\/Under 4.5 Strikeouts (-160\/+125)<\/strong><\/div>\n<div style=\"display: block; margin: 0.25rem 0;\">It may come as a surprise, but fastballs are generally a pitcher&#8217;s least effective pitch.  Jameson Taillon has utilized his off-speed and breaking pitches 10.3% more often this season (64.9%) than he did last year (54.6%).<\/div>\n<div style=\"display: block; margin: 0.25rem 0 1.5rem;\"><small><em><strong>Explain:<\/strong> A pitcher who limits has fastball usage will instead heavily use change-ups, curveballs, sliders, etc. These are far more effective pitches at preventing runs and generating strikeouts.<\/em><\/small><\/div>\n<\/li>\n<li>\n<div style=\"display: block; margin: 0.75rem 0;\"><strong>Michael Busch &#8211; Over\/Under 0.5 Hits (-160\/+125)<\/strong><\/div>\n<div style=\"display: block; margin: 0.25rem 0;\">Michael Busch has primarily hit in the top-half of the lineup this season (82% of the time), but he is projected to bat 6th in the lineup in this matchup.<\/div>\n<div style=\"display: block; margin: 0.25rem 0 1.5rem;\"><small><em><strong>Explain:<\/strong> The lower in the order a player bats, the fewer plate appearances he will get and the fewer opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market.  A player who hits lower in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting higher.<\/em><\/small><\/div>\n<\/li>\n<li>\n<div style=\"display: block; margin: 0.75rem 0;\"><strong><\/strong><\/div>\n<div style=\"display: block; margin: 0.25rem 0;\">The Chicago Cubs have hit 32.6% of their balls in the air 100 mph or faster this year, ranking them as the #9 squad in Major League Baseball by this standard.<\/div>\n<div style=\"display: block; margin: 0.25rem 0 1.5rem;\"><small><em><strong>Explain:<\/strong> To hit a home run, the ball must be hit in the air and hit hard enough to clear the fence.  This metric is a strong indicator of this kind of power.<\/em><\/small><\/div>\n<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<h3 style=\"margin: 3rem 0 0 0;\">Betting Trends<\/h3>\n<ul>\n<li>\n<div style=\"display: block; margin: 0.75rem 0;\"><strong>Chicago Cubs &#8211; Over\/Under 4.5 Team Total (-105\/-125)<\/strong><\/div>\n<div style=\"display: block; margin: 0.25rem 0 1.5rem;\">The Chicago Cubs have hit the Team Total Over in 26 of their last 40 games (+11.00 Units \/ 24% ROI)<\/div>\n<\/li>\n<li>\n<div style=\"display: block; margin: 0.75rem 0;\"><strong>Cincinnati Reds &#8211; Over\/Under 3.5 Team Total (-110\/-120)<\/strong><\/div>\n<div style=\"display: block; margin: 0.25rem 0 1.5rem;\">The Cincinnati Reds have hit the Team Total Under in 26 of their last 45 away games (+4.50 Units \/ 9% ROI)<\/div>\n<\/li>\n<li>\n<div style=\"display: block; margin: 0.75rem 0;\"><strong>TJ Friedl &#8211; Over\/Under 0.5 Home Runs (+900\/-2500)<\/strong><\/div>\n<div style=\"display: block; margin: 0.25rem 0 1.5rem;\">TJ Friedl has hit the Home Runs Over in 2 of his last 8 games (+8.50 Units \/ 106% ROI)<\/div>\n<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<div>\n<form><input type=\"hidden\" id=\"ga-page-group\" name=\"ga-page-group\" value=\"GAME PREVIEW\"><input type=\"hidden\" id=\"ga-sport\" name=\"ga-sport\" \"value=\"mlb\"><input type=\"hidden\" id=\"ga-title-id\" name=\"ga-title-id\"value=\"2.19.2\"><input type=\"hidden\" id=\"ga-title-group\" name=\"ga-title-group\" value=\"BETTING\"><input type=\"hidden\" id=\"ga-title-cta\" name=\"ga-title-cta\" value=\"1\"><\/form>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Cincinnati Reds @ Chicago Cubs +145O\/U: 8(-110\/-110)-165 Cincinnati Reds Insights Andrew Abbott &#8211; Over\/Under 15.5 Pitching Outs (-130\/+100) Andrew Abbott has been granted a longer leash than the typical pitcher&hellip; <\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":355806,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[3],"tags":[381,283,286,287,289,288,284,14,15,382,285,114,456,73,282,281],"class_list":["post-355805","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-mlb-game-previews","tag-andrew-abbott","tag-bets","tag-betting-guide","tag-betting-line","tag-betting-odds","tag-betting-tips","tag-betting-trends","tag-chicago-cubs","tag-cincinnati-reds","tag-elly-de-la-cruz","tag-expert-picks","tag-jameson-taillon","tag-michael-busch","tag-mlb","tag-odds","tag-picks"],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v27.5 - https:\/\/yoast.com\/product\/yoast-seo-wordpress\/ -->\n<title>Discover Betting Trends and Expert Picks for Reds vs Cubs - 5\/5\/2026 - WriteNow\u2122 by EV Analytics<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"Explore our expert betting tips and picks for Cincinnati Reds vs. Chicago Cubs on May 5, 2026. 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