{"id":342151,"date":"2026-04-24T03:32:03","date_gmt":"2026-04-24T07:32:03","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/evanalytics.com\/articles\/uncategorized\/understand-the-game-breakdown-pirates-vs-brewers-head-to-head-insights-april-24th-2026\/"},"modified":"2026-04-24T19:42:02","modified_gmt":"2026-04-24T23:42:02","slug":"understand-the-game-breakdown-pirates-vs-brewers-head-to-head-insights-april-24th-2026","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/evanalytics.com\/articles\/mlb-game-previews\/understand-the-game-breakdown-pirates-vs-brewers-head-to-head-insights-april-24th-2026\/","title":{"rendered":"Understand the Game Breakdown: Pirates vs Brewers Head-to-Head Insights April 24th, 2026"},"content":{"rendered":"
\n
\n
\"Pittsburgh<\/p>\n

Pittsburgh Pirates<\/h4>\n<\/div>\n
@<\/div>\n
\"Milwaukee<\/p>\n

Milwaukee Brewers<\/h4>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
-110<\/span>O\/U: 7
(-110\/-110)<\/span>-110<\/span><\/div>\n<\/p>\n

Pittsburgh Pirates Insights<\/h3>\n
    \n
  • \n
    Paul Skenes – Over\/Under 17.5 Pitching Outs (-135\/+105)<\/strong><\/div>\n
    Paul Skenes has been given more leash than the typical pitcher since the start of last season, throwing 4.2 more adjusted pitches-per-outing than league average.<\/div>\n
    Explain:<\/strong> Pitchers with a longer leash are more likely to go deeper into games and record more outs.<\/em><\/small><\/div>\n<\/li>\n
  • \n
    Henry Davis – Over\/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-105\/-125)<\/strong><\/div>\n
    Henry Davis has experienced some negative variance in regards to his home runs since the start of last season; his 12.4 HR per 600 plate appearances figure is a good deal lower than his 24.4 Expected HR\/600, based on the leading projection system (THE BAT X)’s interpretation of Statcast data.<\/div>\n
    Explain:<\/strong> xHR uses highly advanced Statcast data to measure a player’s home run ability more accurately than actual home runs can.<\/em><\/small><\/div>\n<\/li>\n
  • \n
    <\/strong><\/div>\n
    The Pittsburgh Pirates (24.2% K% (per the leading projection system, THE BAT X) project to have the 4th-most strikeout-heavy batting order of all teams on the slate.<\/div>\n
    Explain:<\/strong> THE BAT X analyzes each player in today’s specific lineup to figure out which teams have the most inherent strikeout potential for the opposing pitcher.<\/em><\/small><\/div>\n<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n

    Milwaukee Brewers Insights<\/h3>\n
      \n
    • \n
      Brandon Woodruff – Over\/Under 6.5 Strikeouts (+120\/-155)<\/strong><\/div>\n
      Brandon Woodruff has utilized his four-seam fastball 7.5% more often this season (38.4%) than he did last season (30.9%).<\/div>\n
      Explain:<\/strong> Fastballs are the one easiest pitches to hit and generate few strikeouts, so a pitcher who begins to use his fastball more often will likely be less effective than he used to be.<\/em><\/small><\/div>\n<\/li>\n
    • \n
      Jake Bauers – Over\/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-115\/-115)<\/strong><\/div>\n
      Over the past week, Jake Bauers’s Barrel% has experienced a negative regression, plummeting from his seasonal rate of 10% down to 0%.<\/div>\n
      Explain:<\/strong> Barrel% measures how often a player hits the ball at the optimal exit velocity and launch angle and is a terrific measure of underlying power.<\/em><\/small><\/div>\n<\/li>\n
    • \n
      Milwaukee Brewers – 2H Moneyline<\/strong><\/div>\n
      According to the leading projection system (THE BAT), the Milwaukee Brewers’ bullpen ranks as the 10th-best among all major league teams.<\/div>\n
      Explain:<\/strong> Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a strong bullpen sneakily creates a tougher matchup for the opposing offense and suppresses a game’s runs.<\/em><\/small><\/div>\n<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n

      Betting Trends<\/h3>\n
        \n
      • \n
        Milwaukee Brewers – Run Line +1.5 (-180)<\/strong><\/div>\n
        The Milwaukee Brewers have hit the Run Line in 12 of their last 18 games at home (+9.20 Units \/ 45% ROI)<\/div>\n<\/li>\n
      • \n
        Over\/Under 7.0 Game Total (-110\/-110)<\/strong><\/div>\n
        The Pittsburgh Pirates have hit the Game Total Under in 16 of their last 25 away games (+7.35 Units \/ 27% ROI)<\/div>\n<\/li>\n
      • \n
        Brice Turang – Over\/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-160\/+125)<\/strong><\/div>\n
        Brice Turang has hit the Total Bases Over in 12 of his last 20 games at home (+6.20 Units \/ 27% ROI)<\/div>\n<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n
        \n
        <\/form>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

        Pittsburgh Pirates @ Milwaukee Brewers -110O\/U: 7(-110\/-110)-110 Pittsburgh Pirates Insights Paul Skenes – Over\/Under 17.5 Pitching Outs (-135\/+105) Paul Skenes has been given more leash than the typical pitcher since… <\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":342152,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[3],"tags":[247,815,949,250,248,251,241,242,249,243,22,73,130,9,246,239,240,568,253,245,252,244],"class_list":["post-342151","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-mlb-game-previews","tag-analysis","tag-brandon-lockridge","tag-brandon-woodruff","tag-game-breakdown","tag-game-forecast","tag-head-to-head","tag-insights","tag-match","tag-match-preview","tag-matchup","tag-milwaukee-brewers","tag-mlb","tag-paul-skenes","tag-pittsburgh-pirates","tag-prediction","tag-preview","tag-rankings","tag-ryan-ohearn","tag-score-prediction","tag-simulation","tag-team-stats","tag-winning-probability"],"yoast_head":"\nUnderstand the Game Breakdown: Pirates vs Brewers Head-to-Head Insights April 24th, 2026 - WriteNow\u2122 by EV Analytics<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"Get an in-depth game preview and prediction for Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Milwaukee Brewers on April 24, 2026. 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