{"id":338141,"date":"2026-04-21T03:09:07","date_gmt":"2026-04-21T07:09:07","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/evanalytics.com\/articles\/uncategorized\/find-the-best-orioles-vs-royals-picks-and-odds-4-21-2026\/"},"modified":"2026-04-21T23:57:02","modified_gmt":"2026-04-22T03:57:02","slug":"find-the-best-orioles-vs-royals-picks-and-odds-4-21-2026","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/evanalytics.com\/articles\/mlb-game-previews\/find-the-best-orioles-vs-royals-picks-and-odds-4-21-2026\/","title":{"rendered":"Find the Best Orioles vs Royals Picks and Odds &#8211; 4\/21\/2026"},"content":{"rendered":"<div class=\"eva_article_wrap\">\n<div class=\"eva_team_logos\">\n<div class=\"eva_away_team\"><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/evanalytics.com\/images\/mlb\/BAL.png\" alt=\"Baltimore Orioles logo\" \/><\/p>\n<h4>Baltimore Orioles<\/h4>\n<\/div>\n<div class=\"eva_matchup_symbol\">@<\/div>\n<div class=\"eva_home_team\"><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/evanalytics.com\/images\/mlb\/KC.png\" alt=\"Kansas City Royals logo\" \/><\/p>\n<h4>Kansas City Royals<\/h4>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<div class=\"eva_odds\"><span>+110<\/span><span>O\/U: 9<br \/>(-110\/-110)<\/span><span>-130<\/span><\/div>\n<\/p>\n<h3 style=\"margin: 3rem 0 0 0;\">Baltimore Orioles Insights<\/h3>\n<ul>\n<li>\n<div style=\"display: block; margin: 0.75rem 0;\"><strong>Shane Baz &#8211; Over\/Under 4.5 Strikeouts (-115\/-115)<\/strong><\/div>\n<div style=\"display: block; margin: 0.25rem 0;\">Despite conventional wisdom, fastballs are generally a pitcher&#8217;s least effective pitch.  Shane Baz has gone to his secondary offerings 8.1% more often this year (64.2%) than he did last year (56.1%).<\/div>\n<div style=\"display: block; margin: 0.25rem 0 1.5rem;\"><small><em><strong>Explain:<\/strong> A pitcher who limits has fastball usage will instead heavily use change-ups, curveballs, sliders, etc. These are far more effective pitches at preventing runs and generating strikeouts.<\/em><\/small><\/div>\n<\/li>\n<li>\n<div style=\"display: block; margin: 0.75rem 0;\"><strong>Coby Mayo &#8211; Over\/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-135\/+105)<\/strong><\/div>\n<div style=\"display: block; margin: 0.25rem 0;\">Coby Mayo&#8217;s exit velocity on flyballs has decreased this year; his 90.5-mph average last season has dropped to 83.2-mph.<\/div>\n<div style=\"display: block; margin: 0.25rem 0 1.5rem;\"><small><em><strong>Explain:<\/strong> Most home runs are flyballs, and the harder those flyballs are hit, the more often they turn into home runs.  This is a strong indicator of power.<\/em><\/small><\/div>\n<\/li>\n<li>\n<div style=\"display: block; margin: 0.75rem 0;\"><strong><\/strong><\/div>\n<div style=\"display: block; margin: 0.25rem 0;\">The Baltimore Orioles have 3 bats in their projected lineup today with a high (i.e.  over 27%) underlying K% (according to the leading projection system, THE BAT X) (Blaze Alexander, Weston Wilson, Coby Mayo).<\/div>\n<div style=\"display: block; margin: 0.25rem 0 1.5rem;\"><small><em><strong>Explain:<\/strong> Teams that have multiple high-strikeout hitters will make it much easier for the opposing pitcher to record strikeouts <\/em><\/small><\/div>\n<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<h3 style=\"margin: 3rem 0 0 0;\">Kansas City Royals Insights<\/h3>\n<ul>\n<li>\n<div style=\"display: block; margin: 0.75rem 0;\"><strong>Kansas City Royals &#8211;  Moneyline (-130)<\/strong><\/div>\n<div style=\"display: block; margin: 0.25rem 0;\">The Kansas City Royals infield defense projects as the strongest out of all the teams playing today.<\/div>\n<div style=\"display: block; margin: 0.25rem 0 1.5rem;\"><small><em><strong>Explain:<\/strong> Defense is an integral part of preventing hits and runs.<\/em><\/small><\/div>\n<\/li>\n<li>\n<div style=\"display: block; margin: 0.75rem 0;\"><strong>Jac Caglianone &#8211; Over\/Under 0.5 Hits (-160\/+125)<\/strong><\/div>\n<div style=\"display: block; margin: 0.25rem 0;\">Based on Statcast metrics, the leading projection system (THE BAT X)&#8217;s version of Expected Batting Average (.246) implies that Jac Caglianone has had some very poor luck since the start of last season with his .184 actual batting average.<\/div>\n<div style=\"display: block; margin: 0.25rem 0 1.5rem;\"><small><em><strong>Explain:<\/strong> xBA uses highly advanced Statcast data to measure a player&#8217;s batting average ability more accurately than actual batting average can.<\/em><\/small><\/div>\n<\/li>\n<li>\n<div style=\"display: block; margin: 0.75rem 0;\"><strong><\/strong><\/div>\n<div style=\"display: block; margin: 0.25rem 0;\">Kansas City&#8217;s 89.8-mph average exit velocity this year is one of the best in baseball: #5 overall.<\/div>\n<div style=\"display: block; margin: 0.25rem 0 1.5rem;\"><small><em><strong>Explain:<\/strong> Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.<\/em><\/small><\/div>\n<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<h3 style=\"margin: 3rem 0 0 0;\">Betting Trends<\/h3>\n<ul>\n<li>\n<div style=\"display: block; margin: 0.75rem 0;\"><strong>Kansas City Royals &#8211; Over\/Under 2.5 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total (-105\/-125)<\/strong><\/div>\n<div style=\"display: block; margin: 0.25rem 0 1.5rem;\">The Kansas City Royals have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 7 of their last 8 games (+6.05 Units \/ 64% ROI)<\/div>\n<\/li>\n<li>\n<div style=\"display: block; margin: 0.75rem 0;\"><strong>Baltimore Orioles &#8211; Over\/Under 1.5 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total (-155\/+120)<\/strong><\/div>\n<div style=\"display: block; margin: 0.25rem 0 1.5rem;\">The Baltimore Orioles have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 7 of their last 10 away games (+4.00 Units \/ 35% ROI)<\/div>\n<\/li>\n<li>\n<div style=\"display: block; margin: 0.75rem 0;\"><strong>Shane Baz &#8211; Over\/Under 2.5 Earned Runs (-110\/-120)<\/strong><\/div>\n<div style=\"display: block; margin: 0.25rem 0 1.5rem;\">Shane Baz has hit the Earned Runs Over in 16 of his last 25 games (+7.65 Units \/ 26% ROI)<\/div>\n<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<div>\n<form><input type=\"hidden\" id=\"ga-page-group\" name=\"ga-page-group\" value=\"GAME PREVIEW\"><input type=\"hidden\" id=\"ga-sport\" name=\"ga-sport\" \"value=\"mlb\"><input type=\"hidden\" id=\"ga-title-id\" name=\"ga-title-id\"value=\"2.1.2\"><input type=\"hidden\" id=\"ga-title-group\" name=\"ga-title-group\" value=\"BETTING\"><input type=\"hidden\" id=\"ga-title-cta\" name=\"ga-title-cta\" value=\"1\"><\/form>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Baltimore Orioles @ Kansas City Royals +110O\/U: 9(-110\/-110)-130 Baltimore Orioles Insights Shane Baz &#8211; Over\/Under 4.5 Strikeouts (-115\/-115) Despite conventional wisdom, fastballs are generally a pitcher&#8217;s least effective pitch. Shane&hellip; <\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":338142,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[3],"tags":[24,283,286,287,289,288,284,911,285,5,552,73,282,281,438],"class_list":["post-338141","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-mlb-game-previews","tag-baltimore-orioles","tag-bets","tag-betting-guide","tag-betting-line","tag-betting-odds","tag-betting-tips","tag-betting-trends","tag-coby-mayo","tag-expert-picks","tag-kansas-city-royals","tag-michael-massey","tag-mlb","tag-odds","tag-picks","tag-shane-baz"],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v27.4 - https:\/\/yoast.com\/product\/yoast-seo-wordpress\/ -->\n<title>Find the Best Orioles vs Royals Picks and Odds - 4\/21\/2026 - WriteNow\u2122 by EV Analytics<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"Explore our expert betting tips and picks for Baltimore Orioles vs. Kansas City Royals on April 21, 2026. 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