{"id":327987,"date":"2026-04-14T00:48:02","date_gmt":"2026-04-14T04:48:02","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/evanalytics.com\/articles\/uncategorized\/odds-and-betting-trends-for-cubs-vs-phillies-4-14-26\/"},"modified":"2026-04-14T23:57:02","modified_gmt":"2026-04-15T03:57:02","slug":"odds-and-betting-trends-for-cubs-vs-phillies-4-14-26","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/evanalytics.com\/articles\/mlb-game-previews\/odds-and-betting-trends-for-cubs-vs-phillies-4-14-26\/","title":{"rendered":"Odds and Betting Trends for Cubs vs Phillies – 4\/14\/26"},"content":{"rendered":"
\n
\n
\"Chicago<\/p>\n

Chicago Cubs<\/h4>\n<\/div>\n
@<\/div>\n
\"Philadelphia<\/p>\n

Philadelphia Phillies<\/h4>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
+120<\/span>O\/U: 10
(-110\/-110)<\/span>-140<\/span><\/div>\n<\/p>\n

Chicago Cubs Insights<\/h3>\n
    \n
  • \n
    Chicago Cubs – 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline (+115)<\/strong><\/div>\n
    Colin Rea has been lucky since the start of last season, posting a 3.90 ERA despite the leading projection system (THE BAT) estimating his true talent level to be 4.48 \u2014 a 0.58 gap.<\/div>\n
    Explain:<\/strong> Pitchers that are overperforming should be expected to pitch worse going forward, which can create value if the lines are too heavily weighing the lucky, to-date overperformance.<\/em><\/small><\/div>\n<\/li>\n
  • \n
    Carson Kelly – Over\/Under 0.5 Hits (-195\/+150)<\/strong><\/div>\n
    Carson Kelly has primarily hit in the top-half of the lineup this year (55% of the time), but he is projected to hit 7th on the lineup card in this game.<\/div>\n
    Explain:<\/strong> The lower in the order a player bats, the fewer plate appearances he will get and the fewer opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits lower in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting higher.<\/em><\/small><\/div>\n<\/li>\n
  • \n
    <\/strong><\/div>\n
    Chicago Cubs batters jointly rank 5th- in Major League Baseball for power since the start of last season when judging by their 9.9% Barrel%.<\/div>\n
    Explain:<\/strong> Barrel% measures how often a player hits the ball at the optimal exit velocity and launch angle and is a terrific measure of underlying power.<\/em><\/small><\/div>\n<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n

    Philadelphia Phillies Insights<\/h3>\n
      \n
    • \n
      Aaron Nola – Over\/Under 5.5 Strikeouts (+120\/-150)<\/strong><\/div>\n
      In his previous start, Aaron Nola was rolling and notched 7 strikeouts.<\/div>\n
      Explain:<\/strong> A pitcher who was strong in his last outing may be sharp once again in his next outing.<\/em><\/small><\/div>\n<\/li>\n
    • \n
      Trea Turner – Over\/Under 1.5 Total Bases (-115\/-115)<\/strong><\/div>\n
      Trea Turner’s exit velocity on flyballs has fallen off this season; his 91.8-mph average last year has decreased to 86.4-mph.<\/div>\n
      Explain:<\/strong> Most home runs are flyballs, and the harder those flyballs are hit, the more often they turn into home runs. This is a strong indicator of power.<\/em><\/small><\/div>\n<\/li>\n
    • \n
      Brandon Marsh – Over\/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+140\/-180)<\/strong><\/div>\n
      Brandon Marsh has an 87th percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (34.9%) and will have a big advantage hitting them out towards baseball’s 9th-shallowest LF fences in today’s game.<\/div>\n
      Explain:<\/strong> This player’s skill set matches up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.<\/em><\/small><\/div>\n<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n

      Betting Trends<\/h3>\n
        \n
      • \n
        Philadelphia Phillies – 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line -0.5 (-110)<\/strong><\/div>\n
        The Philadelphia Phillies have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 19 of their last 30 games at home (+6.00 Units \/ 17% ROI)<\/div>\n<\/li>\n
      • \n
        Chicago Cubs – Over\/Under 4.5 Team Total (-120\/-110)<\/strong><\/div>\n
        The Chicago Cubs have hit the Team Total Under in 29 of their last 50 away games (+6.25 Units \/ 11% ROI)<\/div>\n<\/li>\n
      • \n
        Trea Turner – Over\/Under 1.5 Total Bases (-115\/-115)<\/strong><\/div>\n
        Trea Turner has hit the Total Bases Under in 14 of his last 20 games at home (+7.00 Units \/ 27% ROI)<\/div>\n<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n
        \n
        <\/form>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

        Chicago Cubs @ Philadelphia Phillies +120O\/U: 10(-110\/-110)-140 Chicago Cubs Insights Chicago Cubs – 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline (+115) Colin Rea has been lucky since the start of last season,… <\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":327988,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[3],"tags":[291,283,286,287,289,288,284,216,560,14,285,73,282,32,281],"class_list":["post-327987","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-mlb-game-previews","tag-aaron-nola","tag-bets","tag-betting-guide","tag-betting-line","tag-betting-odds","tag-betting-tips","tag-betting-trends","tag-brandon-marsh","tag-carson-kelly","tag-chicago-cubs","tag-expert-picks","tag-mlb","tag-odds","tag-philadelphia-phillies","tag-picks"],"yoast_head":"\nOdds and Betting Trends for Cubs vs Phillies - 4\/14\/26 - WriteNow\u2122 by EV Analytics<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"Explore our expert betting tips and picks for Chicago Cubs vs. Philadelphia Phillies on April 14, 2026. 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