{"id":30834,"date":"2024-08-04T05:34:02","date_gmt":"2024-08-04T09:34:02","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/evanalytics.com\/articles\/uncategorized\/uncover-the-game-forecast-cardinals-vs-cubs-head-to-head-analysis-8-04-24\/"},"modified":"2024-08-04T19:12:02","modified_gmt":"2024-08-04T23:12:02","slug":"uncover-the-game-forecast-cardinals-vs-cubs-head-to-head-analysis-8-04-24","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/evanalytics.com\/articles\/mlb-game-previews\/uncover-the-game-forecast-cardinals-vs-cubs-head-to-head-analysis-8-04-24\/","title":{"rendered":"Uncover the Game Forecast: Cardinals vs Cubs Head-to-Head Analysis 8\/04\/24)"},"content":{"rendered":"
\n
\n
\"St.<\/p>\n

St. Louis Cardinals<\/h4>\n<\/div>\n
@<\/div>\n
\"Chicago<\/p>\n

Chicago Cubs<\/h4>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
+125<\/span>O\/U: 9
(-110\/-110)<\/span>-150<\/span><\/div>\n

The Chicago Cubs will host the St. Louis Cardinals at Wrigley Field on August 4, 2024, in a pivotal matchup in the National League Central. Both teams are vying for position, with the Cubs sitting at 54-59 and the Cardinals at 57-54. The Cubs are currently struggling, having lost to the Cardinals 5-4 in their last outing on August 3, 2024.<\/p>\n

Justin Steele is projected to take the mound for the Cubs. Despite a challenging season, where he holds a 2-5 record and a solid ERA of 3.38<\/a>, Steele ranks as the 22nd best starting pitcher in MLB according to advanced stats. However, his recent performance was concerning; he allowed 5 earned runs in his last start. In contrast, Miles Mikolas of the Cardinals has had a less favorable season, with an 8-8 record and an ERA of 4.99<\/a>. Mikolas has shown some potential to improve, as indicated by his xFIP of 4.24, suggesting he may have been unlucky this year.<\/p>\n

Offensively, the Cubs rank 20th in MLB despite their best hitter, Ian Happ, putting up respectable numbers. However, they struggle with consistency, evident in their performance against a Cardinals bullpen that ranks 13th in MLB. Meanwhile, the Cardinals\u2019 offense, led by Alec Burleson, has been average, ranking 18th overall.<\/p>\n

The projections favor the Cubs, expecting them to score an average of 5.18 runs against the Cardinals’ average projection of 4.42 runs. With a high implied team total of 4.60 runs, the Cubs are seen as betting favorites. This game is crucial for the Cubs to gain momentum and turn their season around.<\/p>\n

St. Louis Cardinals Insights<\/h3>\n
    \n
  • \n
    St. Louis Cardinals – Moneyline (+125)<\/strong><\/div>\n
    Among every team on the slate today, the worst outfield defense belongs to the St. Louis Cardinals.<\/div>\n
    Explain:<\/strong> Defense is an integral part of preventing (or, in this case, allowing) hits and runs.<\/em><\/small><\/div>\n<\/li>\n
  • \n
    Lars Nootbaar – Over\/Under 0.5 Hits (-155\/+120)<\/strong><\/div>\n
    Lars Nootbaar has primarily hit in the top-half of the lineup this season (53% of the time), but he is projected to hit 8th in the batting order in this matchup.<\/div>\n
    Explain:<\/strong> The lower in the order a player bats, the fewer plate appearances he will get and the fewer opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits lower in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting higher.<\/em><\/small><\/div>\n<\/li>\n
  • \n
    <\/strong><\/div>\n
    The St. Louis Cardinals (20.6 K% (via the leading projection system, THE BAT X) project to have the 4th-least strikeout-heavy set of hitters of all teams today.<\/div>\n
    Explain:<\/strong> THE BAT X analyzes each player in today’s specific lineup to figure out which teams have the least inherent strikeout potential for the opposing pitcher.<\/em><\/small><\/div>\n<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n

    Chicago Cubs Insights<\/h3>\n
      \n
    • \n
      Justin Steele – Over\/Under 17.5 Pitching Outs (-200\/+155)<\/strong><\/div>\n
      Tallying 17.9 outs per game per started this year on average, Justin Steele falls in the 91st percentile.<\/div>\n
      Explain:<\/strong> A pitcher who averages more outs per start than his Outs prop may be a good bet to go over, and visa-versa for the under.<\/em><\/small><\/div>\n<\/li>\n
    • \n
      Miguel Amaya – Over\/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-160\/+125)<\/strong><\/div>\n
      Miguel Amaya has been cold lately, with his seasonal exit velocity of 87.4-mph dropping to 77.9-mph in the past two weeks’ worth of games.<\/div>\n
      Explain:<\/strong> Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.<\/em><\/small><\/div>\n<\/li>\n
    • \n
      Chicago Cubs – 2H Moneyline<\/strong><\/div>\n
      The Chicago Cubs bullpen ranks as the 3rd-worst in the league, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT).<\/div>\n
      Explain:<\/strong> Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a weak bullpen sneakily creates an easier matchup for the opposing offense and boosts a game’s runs.<\/em><\/small><\/div>\n<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n

      Betting Trends<\/h3>\n
        \n
      • \n
        Chicago Cubs – Over\/Under 4.5 Team Total (-110\/-120)<\/strong><\/div>\n
        The Chicago Cubs have hit the Team Total Under in 28 of their last 44 games at home (+10.50 Units \/ 21% ROI)<\/div>\n<\/li>\n
      • \n
        Over\/Under 9.0 Game Total (-110\/-110)<\/strong><\/div>\n
        The St. Louis Cardinals have hit the Game Total Over in 26 of their last 40 games (+10.10 Units \/ 23% ROI)<\/div>\n<\/li>\n
      • \n
        Pedro Pages – Over\/Under 0.5 Hits (-150\/+120)<\/strong><\/div>\n
        Pedro Pages has hit the Hits Over in 15 of his last 18 games (+10.65 Units \/ 38% ROI)<\/div>\n<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n
        \n
        <\/form>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

        The Chicago Cubs will host the St. Louis Cardinals at Wrigley Field on August 4, 2024, in a pivotal matchup in the National League Central. Both teams are vying for… <\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":30835,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[3],"tags":[247,14,250,248,251,241,224,498,242,249,243,45,152,73,246,239,240,253,245,17,252,244],"class_list":["post-30834","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-mlb-game-previews","tag-analysis","tag-chicago-cubs","tag-game-breakdown","tag-game-forecast","tag-head-to-head","tag-insights","tag-justin-steele","tag-lars-nootbaar","tag-match","tag-match-preview","tag-matchup","tag-miguel-amaya","tag-miles-mikolas","tag-mlb","tag-prediction","tag-preview","tag-rankings","tag-score-prediction","tag-simulation","tag-st-louis-cardinals","tag-team-stats","tag-winning-probability"],"yoast_head":"\nUncover the Game Forecast: Cardinals vs Cubs Head-to-Head Analysis 8\/04\/24) - WriteNow\u2122 by EV Analytics<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"Get an in-depth game preview and prediction for St. Louis Cardinals vs. Chicago Cubs on August 4, 2024. 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