{"id":30818,"date":"2024-08-04T05:18:02","date_gmt":"2024-08-04T09:18:02","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/evanalytics.com\/articles\/uncategorized\/read-phillies-vs-mariners-picks-and-betting-odds-sunday-august-04-2024\/"},"modified":"2024-08-04T21:17:02","modified_gmt":"2024-08-05T01:17:02","slug":"read-phillies-vs-mariners-picks-and-betting-odds-sunday-august-04-2024","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/evanalytics.com\/articles\/mlb-game-previews\/read-phillies-vs-mariners-picks-and-betting-odds-sunday-august-04-2024\/","title":{"rendered":"Read Phillies vs Mariners Picks and Betting Odds &#8211; Sunday August 04, 2024"},"content":{"rendered":"<div class=\"eva_article_wrap\">\n<div class=\"eva_team_logos\">\n<div class=\"eva_away_team\"><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/evanalytics.com\/images\/mlb\/PHI.png\" alt=\"Philadelphia Phillies logo\" \/><\/p>\n<h4>Philadelphia Phillies<\/h4>\n<\/div>\n<div class=\"eva_matchup_symbol\">@<\/div>\n<div class=\"eva_home_team\"><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/evanalytics.com\/images\/mlb\/SEA.png\" alt=\"Seattle Mariners logo\" \/><\/p>\n<h4>Seattle Mariners<\/h4>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<div class=\"eva_odds\"><span>-130<\/span><span>O\/U: 7<br \/>(-110\/-110)<\/span><span>+110<\/span><\/div>\n<p>As the Philadelphia Phillies and Seattle Mariners prepare for their matchup on August 4, 2024, both teams find themselves in a tight race to solidify their positions, especially with the playoffs drawing closer. The Phillies (65-45) are enjoying a strong season, while the Mariners (59-53) have shown signs of improvement but still have room to grow. After their last encounter, which saw the Mariners edge out the Phillies with a 6-5 victory, the stage is set for another competitive game.<\/p>\n<p>Logan Gilbert is projected to take the mound for the Mariners, looking to bounce back after a rough outing where he allowed 7 earned runs in just 3 innings. Despite this setback, Gilbert holds a respectable ERA of <a href=\"https:\/\/evanalytics.com\/mlb\/player-stats\/earned-run-average\">3.11<\/a> this season and ranks as the 35th best starting pitcher in MLB. However, he\u2019ll face a challenge against Zack Wheeler of the Phillies, who is having an elite year with a <a href=\"https:\/\/evanalytics.com\/mlb\/player-stats\/earned-run-average\">2.94<\/a> ERA and ranks 10th best among starting pitchers. Wheeler&#8217;s ability to strike out hitters (26.9 K%) could be a decisive factor, particularly against a Mariners lineup that strikes out more than any other team in MLB.<\/p>\n<p>Offensively, the Mariners have struggled, ranking 26th overall and dead last in batting average. In contrast, the Phillies boast a prolific offense that ranks 7th in MLB, highlighted by Kyle Schwarber&#8217;s impressive performance, including 22 home runs this season. The projections indicate a low-scoring affair, with the Mariners expected to tally around 3.58 runs and the Phillies at 4.23 runs.<\/p>\n<p>Given the matchup of elite pitcher against a weak offense and the recent form of both teams, the projections lean toward a competitive game, but anticipate that the Phillies might come out on top.<\/p>\n<h3 style=\"margin: 3rem 0 0 0;\">Philadelphia Phillies Insights<\/h3>\n<ul>\n<li>\n<div style=\"display: block; margin: 0.75rem 0;\"><strong>Zack Wheeler &#8211; Over\/Under 18.5 Pitching Outs (-105\/-125)<\/strong><\/div>\n<div style=\"display: block; margin: 0.25rem 0;\">Zack Wheeler has been granted a longer leash than the typical pitcher this year, recording 8.7 more adjusted pitches-per-outing than average.<\/div>\n<div style=\"display: block; margin: 0.25rem 0 1.5rem;\"><small><em><strong>Explain:<\/strong> Pitchers with a longer leash are more likely to go deeper into games and record more outs.<\/em><\/small><\/div>\n<\/li>\n<li>\n<div style=\"display: block; margin: 0.75rem 0;\"><strong>Trea Turner &#8211; Over\/Under 0.5 Hits (-235\/+175)<\/strong><\/div>\n<div style=\"display: block; margin: 0.25rem 0;\">Based on Statcast data, the leading projection system (THE BAT X)&#8217;s version of Expected Batting Average (.255) provides evidence that Trea Turner has had some very good luck this year with his .316 actual batting average.<\/div>\n<div style=\"display: block; margin: 0.25rem 0 1.5rem;\"><small><em><strong>Explain:<\/strong> xBA uses highly advanced Statcast data to measure a player&#8217;s batting average ability more accurately than actual batting average can.<\/em><\/small><\/div>\n<\/li>\n<li>\n<div style=\"display: block; margin: 0.75rem 0;\"><strong>Philadelphia Phillies &#8211;  Moneyline (-130)<\/strong><\/div>\n<div style=\"display: block; margin: 0.25rem 0;\">The 2nd-best projected batting order on the slate in terms of overall offensive ability belongs to the Philadelphia Phillies.<\/div>\n<div style=\"display: block; margin: 0.25rem 0 1.5rem;\"><small><em><strong>Explain:<\/strong> A pitcher who faces a strong opposing offense will be more likely to underperform his usual performance, particularly in terms of hits and runs, in that game.<\/em><\/small><\/div>\n<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<h3 style=\"margin: 3rem 0 0 0;\">Seattle Mariners Insights<\/h3>\n<ul>\n<li>\n<div style=\"display: block; margin: 0.75rem 0;\"><strong>Logan Gilbert &#8211; Over\/Under 6.5 Strikeouts (-110\/-120)<\/strong><\/div>\n<div style=\"display: block; margin: 0.25rem 0;\">Logan Gilbert&#8217;s higher usage percentage of his secondary pitches this season (67.1% vs. 57.9% last year) figures to work in his favor consider they are generally much more effective than fastballs.<\/div>\n<div style=\"display: block; margin: 0.25rem 0 1.5rem;\"><small><em><strong>Explain:<\/strong> A pitcher who limits has fastball usage will instead heavily use change-ups, curveballs, sliders, etc. These are far more effective pitches at preventing runs and generating strikeouts.<\/em><\/small><\/div>\n<\/li>\n<li>\n<div style=\"display: block; margin: 0.75rem 0;\"><strong>Victor Robles &#8211; Over\/Under 0.5 Hits (-160\/+125)<\/strong><\/div>\n<div style=\"display: block; margin: 0.25rem 0;\">Victor Robles has primarily hit in the back-half of the lineup this year (65% of the time), but he is penciled in 1st on the lineup card in today&#8217;s game.<\/div>\n<div style=\"display: block; margin: 0.25rem 0 1.5rem;\"><small><em><strong>Explain:<\/strong> The higher in the order a player bats, the more plate appearances he will get and the more opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market.  A player who hits higher in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting lower.<\/em><\/small><\/div>\n<\/li>\n<li>\n<div style=\"display: block; margin: 0.75rem 0;\"><strong><\/strong><\/div>\n<div style=\"display: block; margin: 0.25rem 0;\">Seattle Mariners bats collectively rank among the elite in the league this year (4th-) as it relates to their 89.4-mph average exit velocity.<\/div>\n<div style=\"display: block; margin: 0.25rem 0 1.5rem;\"><small><em><strong>Explain:<\/strong> Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.<\/em><\/small><\/div>\n<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<h3 style=\"margin: 3rem 0 0 0;\">Betting Trends<\/h3>\n<ul>\n<li>\n<div style=\"display: block; margin: 0.75rem 0;\"><strong>Over\/Under 7.0 Game Total (-110\/-110)<\/strong><\/div>\n<div style=\"display: block; margin: 0.25rem 0 1.5rem;\">The Seattle Mariners have hit the Game Total Under in 33 of their last 51 games at home (+14.15 Units \/ 25% ROI)<\/div>\n<\/li>\n<li>\n<div style=\"display: block; margin: 0.75rem 0;\"><strong>Philadelphia Phillies &#8211; 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline (-135)<\/strong><\/div>\n<div style=\"display: block; margin: 0.25rem 0 1.5rem;\">The Philadelphia Phillies have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 59 of their last 98 games (+16.00 Units \/ 10% ROI)<\/div>\n<\/li>\n<li>\n<div style=\"display: block; margin: 0.75rem 0;\"><strong>Kyle Schwarber &#8211; Over\/Under 0.5 Singles (+180\/-235)<\/strong><\/div>\n<div style=\"display: block; margin: 0.25rem 0 1.5rem;\">Kyle Schwarber has hit the Singles Over in 25 of his last 50 games (+13.55 Units \/ 27% ROI)<\/div>\n<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<div>\n<form><input type=\"hidden\" id=\"ga-page-group\" name=\"ga-page-group\" value=\"GAME PREVIEW\"><input type=\"hidden\" id=\"ga-sport\" name=\"ga-sport\" \"value=\"mlb\"><input type=\"hidden\" id=\"ga-title-id\" name=\"ga-title-id\"value=\"2.16.2\"><input type=\"hidden\" id=\"ga-title-group\" name=\"ga-title-group\" value=\"BETTING\"><input type=\"hidden\" id=\"ga-title-cta\" name=\"ga-title-cta\" value=\"1\"><\/form>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>As the Philadelphia Phillies and Seattle Mariners prepare for their matchup on August 4, 2024, both teams find themselves in a tight race to solidify their positions, especially with the&hellip; <\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":30819,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[3],"tags":[283,286,287,289,288,284,548,285,100,37,73,282,32,281,4,118],"class_list":["post-30818","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-mlb-game-previews","tag-bets","tag-betting-guide","tag-betting-line","tag-betting-odds","tag-betting-tips","tag-betting-trends","tag-bryce-harper","tag-expert-picks","tag-logan-gilbert","tag-mitch-haniger","tag-mlb","tag-odds","tag-philadelphia-phillies","tag-picks","tag-seattle-mariners","tag-zack-wheeler"],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v27.4 - https:\/\/yoast.com\/product\/yoast-seo-wordpress\/ -->\n<title>Read Phillies vs Mariners Picks and Betting Odds - Sunday August 04, 2024 - WriteNow\u2122 by EV Analytics<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"Explore our expert betting tips and picks for Philadelphia Phillies vs. Seattle Mariners on August 4, 2024. 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