{"id":30639,"date":"2024-08-04T01:11:02","date_gmt":"2024-08-04T05:11:02","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/evanalytics.com\/articles\/uncategorized\/odds-and-betting-trends-for-d-backs-vs-pirates-8-4-24\/"},"modified":"2024-08-04T16:37:02","modified_gmt":"2024-08-04T20:37:02","slug":"odds-and-betting-trends-for-d-backs-vs-pirates-8-4-24","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/evanalytics.com\/articles\/mlb-game-previews\/odds-and-betting-trends-for-d-backs-vs-pirates-8-4-24\/","title":{"rendered":"Odds and Betting Trends for D-Backs vs Pirates &#8211; 8\/4\/24"},"content":{"rendered":"<div class=\"eva_article_wrap\">\n<div class=\"eva_team_logos\">\n<div class=\"eva_away_team\"><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/evanalytics.com\/images\/mlb\/ARI.png\" alt=\"Arizona Diamondbacks logo\" \/><\/p>\n<h4>Arizona Diamondbacks<\/h4>\n<\/div>\n<div class=\"eva_matchup_symbol\">@<\/div>\n<div class=\"eva_home_team\"><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/evanalytics.com\/images\/mlb\/PIT.png\" alt=\"Pittsburgh Pirates logo\" \/><\/p>\n<h4>Pittsburgh Pirates<\/h4>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<div class=\"eva_odds\"><span>+140<\/span><span>O\/U: 7.5<br \/>(-110\/-110)<\/span><span>-165<\/span><\/div>\n<p>As the Pittsburgh Pirates prepare to face off against the Arizona Diamondbacks on August 4, 2024, both teams are looking to gain ground in the competitive landscape of the National League. Currently, the Pirates sit with a record of 56-54, while the Diamondbacks are slightly ahead at 59-52, having established themselves as an above-average squad this season. Both teams are coming off an intense matchup yesterday, where the Pirates secured a narrow 4-2 victory over the Diamondbacks.<\/p>\n<p>In the spotlight today is Pirates&#8217; right-hander Paul Skenes, who has proven to be an elite pitcher this year, holding an impressive 1.90 <a href=\"https:\/\/evanalytics.com\/mlb\/player-stats\/earned-run-average\">ERA<\/a> and a Win\/Loss record of 6-1. Additionally, Skenes ranks as the 2nd best starting pitcher in MLB according to advanced statistics. His projections today indicate he will pitch an average of 6.0 innings while allowing roughly 2.0 earned runs, striking out about 6.6 batters on average.<\/p>\n<p>Conversely, Ryne Nelson of the Diamondbacks has struggled to find his footing this season. Although he has an average ERA of <a href=\"https:\/\/evanalytics.com\/mlb\/player-stats\/earned-run-average\">4.53<\/a>, he has shown signs of bad luck with a 3.76 FIP, suggesting room for improvement as he takes the mound today. With Skenes on the other side, the Diamondbacks will need to capitalize on any opportunities to support their offense.<\/p>\n<p>The Pirates are projected as the favorites for today&#8217;s game, with projections suggesting they could score around 4.83 runs, a favorable output against a Diamondbacks lineup that is currently the 5th best in MLB but faces a tough matchup against Skenes. For bettors, this could present an opportunity to back the Pirates, who have a solid chance to extend their winning streak against a struggling Diamondbacks squad.<\/p>\n<h3 style=\"margin: 3rem 0 0 0;\">Arizona Diamondbacks Insights<\/h3>\n<ul>\n<li>\n<div style=\"display: block; margin: 0.75rem 0;\"><strong>Arizona Diamondbacks &#8211;  1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline (+160)<\/strong><\/div>\n<div style=\"display: block; margin: 0.25rem 0;\">In his previous outing, Ryne Nelson turned in a great performance and allowed 0 ER.<\/div>\n<div style=\"display: block; margin: 0.25rem 0 1.5rem;\"><small><em><strong>Explain:<\/strong> A pitcher who was strong in his last outing may be sharp once again in his next outing.<\/em><\/small><\/div>\n<\/li>\n<li>\n<div style=\"display: block; margin: 0.75rem 0;\"><strong>Ketel Marte &#8211; Over\/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+135\/-180)<\/strong><\/div>\n<div style=\"display: block; margin: 0.25rem 0;\">Ketel Marte has seen a sizeable gain in his exit velocity of late; just compare his 97.3-mph average over the past 14 days to his seasonal 93.7-mph mark.<\/div>\n<div style=\"display: block; margin: 0.25rem 0 1.5rem;\"><small><em><strong>Explain:<\/strong> Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.<\/em><\/small><\/div>\n<\/li>\n<li>\n<div style=\"display: block; margin: 0.75rem 0;\"><strong>Eugenio Suarez &#8211; Over\/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-130\/+100)<\/strong><\/div>\n<div style=\"display: block; margin: 0.25rem 0;\">Eugenio Suarez pulls a lot of his flyballs (37.1% \u2014 94th percentile) and will be challenged by MLB&#8217;s 9th-deepest LF fences in today&#8217;s matchup.<\/div>\n<div style=\"display: block; margin: 0.25rem 0 1.5rem;\"><small><em><strong>Explain:<\/strong> This player&#8217;s skill set does not match up particularly well with the park he&#8217;s in today, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.<\/em><\/small><\/div>\n<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<h3 style=\"margin: 3rem 0 0 0;\">Pittsburgh Pirates Insights<\/h3>\n<ul>\n<li>\n<div style=\"display: block; margin: 0.75rem 0;\"><strong>Paul Skenes &#8211; Over\/Under 7.5 Strikeouts (+100\/-130)<\/strong><\/div>\n<div style=\"display: block; margin: 0.25rem 0;\">Because flyball pitchers have a notable advantage over flyball batters, Paul Skenes and his 47.6% underlying FB% (per the leading projection system, THE BAT) finds himself in a favorable position in today&#8217;s outing squaring off against 4 opposing FB batters.<\/div>\n<div style=\"display: block; margin: 0.25rem 0 1.5rem;\"><small><em><strong>Explain:<\/strong> This mostly has to do with the way the hitter&#8217;s swing plane interacts with the pitch trajectory, and it can create boosted performance across all categories and hidden value few are considering.<\/em><\/small><\/div>\n<\/li>\n<li>\n<div style=\"display: block; margin: 0.75rem 0;\"><strong>Oneil Cruz &#8211; Over\/Under 1.5 Total Bases (-105\/-125)<\/strong><\/div>\n<div style=\"display: block; margin: 0.25rem 0;\">In terms of his home runs, Oneil Cruz has had some very poor luck this year.  His 25.2 HR per 600 plate appearances rate has been a good deal lower than the leading projection system (THE BAT X)&#8217;s version of Statcast-based Expected HR\/600 at 35.8.<\/div>\n<div style=\"display: block; margin: 0.25rem 0 1.5rem;\"><small><em><strong>Explain:<\/strong> xHR uses highly advanced Statcast data to measure a player&#8217;s home run ability more accurately than actual home runs can.<\/em><\/small><\/div>\n<\/li>\n<li>\n<div style=\"display: block; margin: 0.75rem 0;\"><strong><\/strong><\/div>\n<div style=\"display: block; margin: 0.25rem 0;\">The Pittsburgh Pirates have 3 hitters in their projected offense today with a high (i.e.  over 27%) underlying K% (according to the leading projection system, THE BAT X) (Oneil Cruz, Joey Bart, Jared Triolo).<\/div>\n<div style=\"display: block; margin: 0.25rem 0 1.5rem;\"><small><em><strong>Explain:<\/strong> Teams that have multiple high-strikeout hitters will make it much easier for the opposing pitcher to record strikeouts <\/em><\/small><\/div>\n<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<h3 style=\"margin: 3rem 0 0 0;\">Betting Trends<\/h3>\n<ul>\n<li>\n<div style=\"display: block; margin: 0.75rem 0;\"><strong>Pittsburgh Pirates &#8211; Run Line -1.5 (+130)<\/strong><\/div>\n<div style=\"display: block; margin: 0.25rem 0 1.5rem;\">The Pittsburgh Pirates have hit the Run Line in 44 of their last 72 games (+15.90 Units \/ 17% ROI)<\/div>\n<\/li>\n<li>\n<div style=\"display: block; margin: 0.75rem 0;\"><strong>Arizona Diamondbacks &#8211; Over\/Under 3.5 Team Total (-110\/-120)<\/strong><\/div>\n<div style=\"display: block; margin: 0.25rem 0 1.5rem;\">The Arizona Diamondbacks have hit the Team Total Over in 30 of their last 45 games (+13.50 Units \/ 26% ROI)<\/div>\n<\/li>\n<li>\n<div style=\"display: block; margin: 0.75rem 0;\"><strong>Joey Bart &#8211; Over\/Under 0.5 Home Runs (+480\/-800)<\/strong><\/div>\n<div style=\"display: block; margin: 0.25rem 0 1.5rem;\">Joey Bart has hit the Home Runs Over in 2 of his last 4 games (+10.70 Units \/ 267% ROI)<\/div>\n<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<div>\n<form><input type=\"hidden\" id=\"ga-page-group\" name=\"ga-page-group\" value=\"GAME PREVIEW\"><input type=\"hidden\" id=\"ga-sport\" name=\"ga-sport\" \"value=\"mlb\"><input type=\"hidden\" id=\"ga-title-id\" name=\"ga-title-id\"value=\"2.13.1\"><input type=\"hidden\" id=\"ga-title-group\" name=\"ga-title-group\" value=\"BETTING\"><input type=\"hidden\" id=\"ga-title-cta\" name=\"ga-title-cta\" value=\"0\"><\/form>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>As the Pittsburgh Pirates prepare to face off against the Arizona Diamondbacks on August 4, 2024, both teams are looking to gain ground in the competitive landscape of the National&hellip; <\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":30640,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[3],"tags":[20,283,286,287,289,288,284,75,285,51,73,282,131,130,281,9,368],"class_list":["post-30639","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-mlb-game-previews","tag-arizona-diamondbacks","tag-bets","tag-betting-guide","tag-betting-line","tag-betting-odds","tag-betting-tips","tag-betting-trends","tag-eugenio-suarez","tag-expert-picks","tag-jake-mccarthy","tag-mlb","tag-odds","tag-oneil-cruz","tag-paul-skenes","tag-picks","tag-pittsburgh-pirates","tag-ryne-nelson"],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v27.5 - https:\/\/yoast.com\/product\/yoast-seo-wordpress\/ -->\n<title>Odds and Betting Trends for D-Backs vs Pirates - 8\/4\/24 - WriteNow\u2122 by EV Analytics<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"Explore our expert betting tips and picks for Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Pittsburgh Pirates on August 4, 2024. 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